Will an election hangover slow this year’s holiday shopping?

Main Street shoppers and merchants could use a little cheer to lift their election hangover.

With Black Friday sales pitches churning well ahead of Thanksgiving, mom-and-pop businesses across Southern California are feeling a bit disconnected from the mostly rosy shopping forecasts touted by retail industry groups.

The National Retail Federation sees holiday spending rising 2.5-3.5% this holiday season, peaking as high as $989 billion, or $902 per person.

Another industry group, the National Federation of Independent Businesses, sees a mix of optimism and caution. Its “uncertainty index” about future conditions hit a record high in October, as sales growth slowed and cost pressures squeezed merchants’ bottom line.

Local business owners interviewed in recent days say they’ve seen that slowdown in foot traffic and spending at their stores. Some speculate it could be related to fever-pitched election campaigns. They wonder if consumers are sitting on the sidelines, holding onto their cash, waiting to see which way the wind blows.

At least one economist in Southern California called those sentiments “bull pucky.”

“My presumption is that there will be a perfectly fine Christmas,” said Christopher Thornberg, an expert in revenue forecasting at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles.

“What you’re really experiencing is nothing more than people asking, ‘Well, why isn’t it like it was two years ago?’ It’s not two years ago,” he said. “Things are settling down, and we’re getting back to something resembling normality,”

Still, some hand-holding may be needed.

Brent Baden, owner of Giltcomplex Antiques along Atlantic Avenue in Long Beach’s Bixby Knolls neighborhood, usually sees a bump in sales after Thanksgiving and again in the week before Christmas, but he isn’t so sure this year.

The 64-year-old Baden said local tax measures approved by voters on Nov. 5 will make his business conditions even tighter. If sales don’t thrive, he may be forced to push off his retirement plans.

“Taxes keep going up, and I’m not seeing better sales in my store,” Baden said. “People don’t have the money they used to. It all goes back to the economy. My bills go up, but I’m not seeing it in my income.”

Baden isn’t the only one complaining about the rising costs of doing business.

Todd Robinson, owner of Crown City Loan and Jewelry in Pasadena’s ritzy Colorado Avenue shopping district, said he’s seen a slight uptick in pre-holiday traffic. Clients are borrowing cash against their vintage guitars, high-end digital cameras and jewelry. The foot traffic, however, isn’t enough to cover ever-rising utility bills on his building.

“I’m hoping for an uptick. We usually don’t get busy until after Thanksgiving,” said Robinson, whose store is owned by Newport Beach-based London Coin Galleries. “This is when people sell their goods and use the cash to buy gifts.”

Emily Cendejas is one of those clients, making ends meet with help from the pawn shop. On a recent visit, she made a loan payment on money she borrowed against a 24-carat gold necklace.

Her day jobs include hairstylist and server at a local restaurant. She says her income is not enough to pay bills. Cendejas said the necklace and its value is giving her extra purchasing power for holiday gifts.

“I’ve got one more payment to make, so I hope he doesn’t sell it,” she laughed, half-seriously.

Election dilemma

The election jitters might be over for some, at least those who have money to spend.

Mary Knaup, co-owner of Sunny Hills Travel, a travel agency in Fullerton’s downtown shopping district, said sales are picking up for big spenders while casual travelers are holding back.

“Prior to October, we saw a phenomenal year,” Knaup said.

Casual travelers, those who skip expensive perks like private guided tours or special events, are usually on a smaller budget than a luxury traveler. Those luxury travelers seem unfazed, she said.

“I just had a customer book a trip to Japan, the south of France and a family trip for Thanksgiving to Riviera Maya, south of Cancun. They won’t change their lifestyle for whoever is in the White House,” Knaup said. “We like those clients.”

PRO Boxing Equipment in Pasadena also saw solid sales throughout the year, but that pace is slowed in October, just like Sunny Hills Travel.

“The election definitely held people back from spending, everything is slow,” said Sayed “Moe” Qubadi, who works with his father at the family business.

“We need a [sequel to] Creed III,” said Qubadi. The 2023 movie used his company’s boxing ring equipment, giving the Qubadis a sales boost.

Maurice Williams, owner of Universal Fitness, a tiny neighborhood gym in the Bixby Knolls, is offering holiday deals for clients who bring in an extra paying customer.

“This time of year, gyms tend to taper back, and people hold back on spending, with January picking up again,” Williams said. “Since the pandemic, things have changed. We haven’t fully recovered.”

Williams said that he is “quite surprised” that spending on gym memberships is holding up, given inflation and high interest rates. Still, he suspects others are “sitting on the sidelines.”

“No one knows what is going to happen with the next administration,” said Williams, who has seen a dip among college-age customers at his second gym at Cerritos College in Norwalk.

Tariffs coming?

In Upland, at the Six Feet Under Tattoo Parlor, owner Corey Miller said some artists in his industry are seeing a business slowdown.

Miller’s biggest worry is the possibility of tariffs imposed on imported goods needed for his business. President-elect Donald Trump said he will impose higher tariffs on goods in order to stimulate domestic manufacturing.

Besides needles and ink, Miller buys medical supplies, gloves, dental bibs, paper towels and bandages from overseas sources.

“All of my suppliers have gone up in price already,” Miller said. “I hate to admit it, but the tariffs could bring a slowdown in luxury spending.”

If prices go up as a result of the tariffs, Miller said that he would be forced to boost prices on everything from getting a tattoo to buying his branded T-shirts that shoppers typically buy during the holidays.

“Everything is going up,” said Miller, who also pointed to a 20% hike in business insurance costs this past year. Parking fees also went up in the Upland historical district, where his business is located. The city wants to raise fees to build a parking structure next, he bemoaned.

Empire Skate, a tiny Upland shop that sells in-line and quad roller skates and apparel, is seeing mediocre sales as skate manufacturers sell directly to consumers, making it more difficult for small businesses to earn a profit.

Owner Amy Plunket said eliminating the middleman makes it tough for her.

“It’s been slow,” she said. “One kid bought a skateboard for his dad, and this past weekend someone bought some socks. It’s been slow since September.”

She said people like to blame the election on soft sales, but she’s in a niche market where “if it’s popular, they’ll buy it.”

Happy times

Even still, there are businesses that are immune to the turmoil swirling around others.

Priscilla Ortiz is the manager of Second Avenue, a women’s clothing store in Fullerton that sells designer labels and accessories on consignment.

For Ortiz, the holidays are the busiest time of year for the shop.

Customers here will pay thousands of dollars for designer duds at discounted prices. It’s not unusual, she says, for a shopper to spend $3,000 for a Chanel purse or $1,000 for a two-piece tweed skirt and jacket.

This particular week, she said rather than buying gifts, her clients were busy buying outfits for holiday parties.

In Long Beach, Clay Wood —  owner of two creative spaces for artists Cone 11 Studio and Clay on First — said efforts to curb crime along First Street paid off for the East Village Arts District.