Will AI PCs Dominate PC Sales In The Next Three Years?

One of the more interesting and significant developments in the Windows PC world is the recent introduction of the AI PC, championed by Qualcomm and Microsoft.

Since 2016, Qualcomm has tried to enter the Windows PC market using its Windows on ARM Snapdragon processor strategy. Early versions of this strategy used emulation software to run Windows on ARM, but that strategy never caught on.

However, Qualcomm never gave up on this strategy. With its Snapdragon X Elite chip, along with major work by Microsoft to make Windows run efficiently on ARM, in June 2024, they launched the official AI PC with major PC partners like Lenovo, HP, Dell, Acer, and others.

Earlier this year, I wrote about the driving forces behind the AI PC initiative, in which I shared the primary motivations behind the Windows on ARM push.

This article discusses how the incorporation of a Neural Processing Unit (NPU) into Apple’s M-series processors, combined with outstanding battery performance and a user-friendly operating system, has enabled Apple to capture market share from conventional PC manufacturers, prompting them to seek innovative strategies to compete with Apple.

The solution came from Qualcomm, which had a powerful new Snapdragon processor with an NPU and a long battery life. Using Microsoft’s updated software, the big PC makers backing the AI PC technology now had a competitive product to take on Apple and hopefully thwart Apple from encroaching on the Windows PC market in the future.

I have been testing the Lenovo Yoga Slim 7X AI PC and found it to deliver an excellent Windows experience. Its sleek design and exceptional performance make it one of the best AI PC models our team has tested.

According to data presented by AltIndex.com, “The surging demand for devices supporting AI has revolutionized computing, forcing the largest players in the market to start pushing AI PCs as their flagship products. These devices have gained massive popularity in 2024, and several trends drive this growth. With more and more industries relying on edge computing, AI PC has become the right solution to improve the performance of autonomous systems, smart home devices, and IoT applications.”

“Statista and Canalys data show that AI PCs are expected to make up 19% of the total PC sales in 2024. With users in both the consumer and business sectors buying more of these devices, this figure is expected to triple and hit 60% by 2027. Translated in shipments, statistics show PC vendors will sell 205 million AI PCs in 2028, or four times more than this year.”

If these predictions hold, this is very good news for Qualcomm, Microsoft, and the major vendors who have a more competitive product to take on Apple while giving the PC market a serious opportunity to grow in the near future.

Tracking the PC market since 1981, I have often been asked if the AI PC will drive a major refresh cycle in the next three years. Historically, consumers keep their PCs for close to five years, and IT departments keep their PCs for anywhere from three to four years.

Historically, the majority of individuals and corporations would purchase new personal computers whenever Microsoft released a new Windows operating system that was rich with features and particularly required enhanced processing capabilities and memory. While this does represent a refresh cycle, it often requires up to four years for such a transition in personal computers to result in a significant update.

The emergence of the AI PC, along with the increasing demand for enhanced processing power and memory to support AI tasks and functionalities at the edge, indicates that, as suggested by AltIndex.com, AI PC sales may potentially “triple and reach 60% by 2027. Translated in shipments, statistics show PC vendors will sell 205 million AI PCs in 2028, or four times more than this year.

Disclosure: Apple, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Qualcomm and Microsoft subscribe to Creative Strategies research reports along with many other high tech companies around the world.