Brandon Aiyuk wants $28 million per season and the Steelers seem willing to give him that much.
The 49ers aren’t willing or haven’t offered him more than $26 million per season yet. But according to recent reports, the 49ers have re-engaged Aiyuk in contract negotiations and are optimistic that they can get a long-term deal done.
I’m less optimistic.
Let’s be realistic. Aiyuk has some leverage and seems to have no preference whether he plays for the Steelers or the 49ers. If the 49ers offer him what the Steelers have offered him, he would take it. But what figure do the 49ers have to match?
Let’s say the Steelers would pay Aiyuk $28 million per season exactly. The state income tax rate in Pennsylvania is 3.07% — it’s a flat rate. So after state income taxes in Pennsylvania, Aiyuk would earn $27,140,400 per season on average.
In California, the state income tax rate for the richest people is 12.3%. Which means if the 49ers were to offer him $28 million per season, after state income taxes he would earn $24,556,000. That’s $2,584,400 per season less than he would make with the Steelers.
So for the 49ers to truly match Pittsburgh’s offer, they would have to give him roughly $31 million per season. And I sincerely doubt the 49ers would give Aiyuk that much money. Which is why I’m skeptical that he will sign an extension with them. It seems. more likely that they’ll trade Aiyuk to the Steelers once they realize they can’t afford his asking price.