The headline of the Atlanta Falcons’ latest announcement had increasingly trended toward likely.
The subtext on Tuesday night was more surprising.
The Falcons did not simply bench veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins 14 games after they signed him to a deal worth $90 million guaranteed at signing
They also gave the rookie they drafted eighth overall the keys to the castle — indefinitely.
“After review we have made the decision Michael Penix will be the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback moving forward,” head coach Raheem Morris said in a statement. “This was a football decision and we are fully focused on preparing the team for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.”
The Falcons may be focusing on the Giants’ game but the rest of the league is watching with at least as much interest in what’s next for Cousins.
Conversations with five league sources that spanned the coaching, executive and representation backgrounds gave Yahoo Sports context in the hours after the Falcons’ announcement. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the competitive advantage of discussing the Falcons’ roster moves.
Here’s a snapshot of the league pulse on some of the biggest questions surrounding the move.
Will the Falcons play Cousins again?
Barring an injury to Penix, the answer was a resounding no from all league corners. Sources did not believe that the Falcons would shuffle between quarterbacks, or even give Penix a trial before naming him the starter. Cousins’ recent five-game stretch, featuring nine interceptions to just one touchdown, helped confirm that decision. But the patchwork of reasons includes a play-caller and quarterback struggling to find success together; an Achilles repair hangover that tends to linger the first season after the injury; and a desire to look forward with a healthy runway for Penix rather than focus on sunk cost. One source also mentioned a belief that Cousins would not go along cordially with a decision to fight for his job in December, should the team create a week-to-week proposition.
League sources unanimously agreed with the Falcons’ decision to change quarterbacks now, as 7-7 Atlanta sits one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South race. What they disagree on: whether signing Cousins was a risk worth the Falcons’ taking.
Were the Falcons right to sign Cousins and draft Penix in the same offseason?
It’s easy to say moving on from a quarterback 14 games in warrants a failure. And from a results standpoint, the Falcons’ move does. From a process standpoint? Most teams would rather have multiple darts at finding a serviceable quarterback if they can afford it, and one source even spoke to the benefit Penix and the Falcons could reap by resting him 14 games without the level of pressure that fellow draft picks navigated.
No. 1 pick Caleb Williams has absorbed a league-high 58 sacks with the Chicago Bears as Penix has learned from the sideline. New England Patriots rookie QB and No. 3 pick Drake Maye began taking hits later as New England waited to start him until Week 6, but he has nonetheless been under pressure on 14 dropbacks per game since, which is not far off the 15.2 fueling Williams’ league-high 213 pressures, per Next Gen Stats.
Waiting to start Penix is a well-regarded decision around the league. Having Penix in-house was more complicated but respected, too. Signing Cousins to an expensive contract beforehand? One NFC executive said the Falcons positioned themselves to likely fall victim to criticism for poor process as soon as they signed both. If either quarterback didn’t pan out, much less both, their decision to invest prime capital in both deserved scrutiny.
“They pinned themselves into a corner,” the executive texted. “The 1 way for them to look good was for Kirk to play good/get hurt and the kid comes in and plays well.
“If they move Kirk, they still paid him $62.5m for one year. Drafting the kid early forced them to make this move. If they trade or cut Kirk and he goes somewhere and plays well, they’ll look bad again. Not a good situation to be in.”
What are the financial implications for Atlanta?
The Falcons owe Cousins $27.5 million guaranteed in 2025. If he’s still on their roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year — which hits March 16, 2025 — they’ll owe him another $10 million in early 2026 roster bonus, per a source with knowledge of the contract. Cousins also has a full no-trade clause that gives him plenty of autonomy in determining his 2025 team. That could hurt the Falcons if Cousins follows a similar path as Russell Wilson.
After the Denver Broncos released Wilson last March, Wilson signed with (and is now starting for) the Pittsburgh Steelers. He didn’t help the Broncos out with the offset language that required them to pay for any of his contract not covered by another team. The Steelers are paying Wilson the veteran minimum of $1.21 million this season. The Broncos are paying him another $37.7 million in 2024. Expect the Falcons to similarly be on the hook for $26.3 million of the $27.5 million next year if Cousins plays elsewhere.
In theory, even if a team signs Cousins to a multiyear deal, they could structure it creatively to essentially “borrow” $23.3 million from the Falcons in 2025 over the life of the deal. Even with a rookie contract for Penix, that will stretch the Falcons. One league source believed Cousins will have more leverage for a multiyear deal than Wilson did.
Where will Cousins play in 2025?
Sources from the executive and agent worlds agreed that it’s unrealistic to bet confidently on any outcome now. There remains movement at head coach, general manager and quarterback across at least a half-dozen teams. The draft cycle has yet to heat up in earnest. Teams will need to assess their options. As they do, Cousins will have an advantage: the relatively limited supply of starting quarterbacks expected to hit the market in 2025 through free agency and draft.
“Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are the two starters [heading to free agency] and after that, it’s a bunch of guys who have failed,” one source said. “The draft is terrible. The two guys at the top are not first-rounders who will go in the first round simply because there’s a need, but they have a lot of holes in their game.”
There will be teams more interested in a veteran with Cousins’ skills and proven résumé than the upside of drafting Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. This is not a draft boasting Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and more. It’s possible a team would want Cousins as a bridge quarterback — expect Daniel Jones to also fill this role after his recent Giants release — to buy time for good-but-not-yet-great 2025 prospects.
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Cousins’ recent struggles will give some teams pause. But he played well as recently as the first half of this season and has earned four Pro Bowl berths, including as recently as in 2022.
Working to his favor will be years of consistency as a solid quarterback and belief across the league that mobility returns more in the second year after an Achilles surgery than the first. Teams could also convince themselves that Cousins’ slump was as much about a struggle to jell with a new play-caller and weapons as it was about the quarterback’s pure ability. The right fit, for Cousins and his next team, matters.
Sources pointed to the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and New York Giants as possible places where Cousins could start immediately in 2025. Dark-horse candidates include the San Francisco 49ers, where Cousins could reunite with head coach Kyle Shanahan 12 years after their two seasons of overlap in Washington, and the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are expected to (and should) roll with Brock Purdy in 2025 — but they’re a high-expectation team that likes a strong backup and could, if they wanted to, use Cousins as a pawn in negotiations as Purdy’s window for a mega-deal opens this offseason.
Interpersonal dynamics in Minnesota may complicate a reunion so soon after head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah moved on from Cousins. But the league is not missing the irony of the potential football fit a reunion would bring, as Darnold will likely command more than the Vikings want to pay, and injured rookie J.J. McCarthy’s rehabilitation timeline will leave uncertainty.
Cousins will also have to decide if he wants to keep playing into his 14th season at age 37.
If he does? Then for the second straight offseason, he will be one of the biggest names available on the quarterback market.