NFL Week 3 picks and predictions: Why Texans, Packers are a smart play
Lorenzo Reyes is locked and loaded for Week 3 in the NFL and provides us with the smartest bets of the weekend.
Sports Pulse
Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season is officially underway.
The first two weeks have been … weird. Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are the two top quarterbacks. J.K. Dobbins, Jordan Mason, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Alec Pierce, and Jameson Williams are all top-six at their respective positions. The TE1 and TE2, respectively, are Isaiah Likely and Brock Bowers. In total, 14 fantasy defenses have scored more than the current TE7, Kyle Pitts. Fun.
To assist with your most difficult lineup decisions, you’ll find my Week 3 fantasy football rankings below. Toggle between standard, half PPR (point per reception), and full PPR to see where players rank in your league’s format.
Our team at the USA TODAY Sports Network also has you covered for all your fantasy football needs. Looking for up-to-date player news? We’ve got it. Need to know who the best starts and sits of the week are? We have an article for that. We also have fantasy defense rankings, kicker rankings, and a trade value chart to help with all your trade decisions.
Given the volatility of this league and fantasy football in particular, these rankings will be updated up until a half hour before the Sunday afternoon games kick off. Let’s get to it.
NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.
Week 3 fantasy football quarterback rankings
I like them more…
- Dating back to last year, Derek Carr has finished as a top-seven fantasy quarterback in five of his previous six games. He’s finished as the QB13 or higher in nine of his last 14. He’ll face an Eagles team that was second in fantasy points allowed to the position last year and has allowed Jordan Love and Kirk Cousins to finish as the QB11 and QB8, respectively.
- Brock Purdy might be missing three of his top weapons (Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey), but this matchup with the Rams is too good to ignore. Since Week 4 of last year, only the Commanders have ceded more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. During that stretch, Los Angeles has given up more than 17 fantasy points to the position in 11 of its 16 games.
I like him less…
- Caleb Williams gets a matchup that might seem tempting but is probably best to avoid for now. Through two weeks, the Colts look like the definition of a run-funnel defense. Running backs have toted the rock 76 times against them, which is 14 more than the team in third place. This isn’t new – last season, only the Cardinals faced more carries from running backs. Williams has finished as the QB31 and QB29 through two weeks, and this might not be the week he breaks out.
Week 3 fantasy football running back rankings
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- Tony Pollard faces a Green Bay front that’s surrendered 132 yards to Saquon Barkley and 135 yards to Jonathan Taylor in its first two games. To date, Pollard is one of only four backs to have 30-plus carries and at least 10 targets. With Tyjae Spears banged up, the volume should be there in this one as well.
- Zack Moss has received 13 opportunities (carries + targets) in each of the first two games, and that should play well against a porous Washington defense. In 2023, only the Cardinals were more generous to opposing backs than the Commanders.
I like him less…
- Dating back to last year, James Conner has been a top-12 back in six straight games, but this could be the week that streak comes to an end. He faces a Lions squad that allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs in 2023. Through two games this season, Detroit once again ranks first against the position, despite facing Kyren Williams and Rachaad White.
Week 3 fantasy football wide receiver rankings
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- Amari Cooper’s 27 receiving yards are 62 fewer than any other wideout with at least 17 targets in 2024. The 30-year-old is currently third in the league in air yards and inside the top-20 in expected fantasy points per game. Last year, 19 receivers hit double-digit half-PPR points against the Giants. This seems like an ideal get-right spot.
- Among wide receivers with more than 10 targets, Diontae Johnson’s five “catchable” passes are tied for dead last, according to FantasyPros. Bryce Young couldn’t hit water from a boat in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The move to Andy Dalton makes Johnson an intriguing play against an unimposing Raiders secondary.
I like him less…
- In his career, Jaylen Waddle has played eight games without Tua Tagovailoa behind center. In those games, he’s finished as the WR27, WR72, WR75, WR17, WR77, WR16, WR36, and WR42. Not great, Bob.
Week 3 fantasy football tight end rankings
I like him more…
- Jake Ferguson finished as TE1 eight times last year, and six of those came at AT&T Stadium. He’ll square off against a Ravens defense that’s allowed more than 12 half-PPR points to five tight ends over their last 12 games, including 14.3 to Brock Bowers last week.
I like him less…
- Sam LaPorta has managed just seven targets through two games. He averaged 7.1 targets per game in 2023 and never had a two-game stretch with fewer than nine. His expected fantasy points per game has dropped from 14.7 last year to 8.7 this season. He’ll face a Cardinals defense that was ninth-best against the position a season ago and has allowed just three receptions to tight ends so far in 2024.