As we near the end of the lull in the NFL offseason, discourse about football—both real and fake—starts to become more substantial. Underrated players across the league are being circled as potential breakout candidates, with fantasy football players taking notice of these players as they attempt to get a leg up on their league-mates and land potential difference-makers late in their drafts.
Given the alterations the Buffalo Bills made to their receiving corps in the offseason, several wide receivers on Buffalo’s roster are being dubbed potential sleepers entering the 2024 season, as there’s a bevy of targets available following the spring departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Third-year player Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman fit the ‘sleeper’ description, but the Bills’ pass-catcher perhaps most deserving of the label is Curtis Samuel, a 27-year-old who inked a three-year deal with the team in the offseason.
A former second-round pick who hasn’t established himself as a consistent play-maker throughout his career due to revolving offensive coaching staffs and poor quarterback play, the demonstrably talented Samuel now has the opportunity to be a leading wide receiver in an offense helmed by one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. The pass catcher’s advantageous opportunity has prompted Pro Football Focus to identify the former Ohio State Buckeye as a potential fantasy football “league-winner,” with writer Nathan Jahnke noting his potential role.
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“Curtis Samuel is more than a slot receiver,” Jahnke wrote. “Samuel should have an expanded role with the Buffalo Bills, compared to recent seasons, along with the best quarterback play of his career.”
This analysis and “league-winner” label is a summarization of Jahnke’s analysis from earlier this month in which he wrote about how Samuel’s career inconsistencies aren’t necessarily his fault, concluding that of the three top Buffalo wideouts, Samuel is perhaps the most advantageous pick.
“Samuel has consistently graded well,” Jahnke wrote. “None of his stats particularly stand out, but they all range from OK to good. The situations he’s been in have never been great. In Carolina, his quarterbacks were mostly Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen. In Washington, it’s been Taylor Heinicke, Sam Howell and Carson Wentz. He never had a quarterback with a PFF passing grade above 60 in Washington, and his best quarterback in Carolina was Newton with a 70.0 passing grade in 2018. Josh Allen will be a huge step up compared to everything Samuel has experienced in the NFL.
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“One of the three wide receivers is definitely going to be a steal, and given the quality of the Bills offense in the past, possibly two. I’d give Samuel the edge over Shakir based on his production without Allen compared to Shakir’s production with Allen, and Coleman is simply harder to draft as most rookies are. This makes Samuel my top sleeper from the group.”
It’s difficult not to be at least interested in Samuel’s situation, as he, on paper, is primed for a career year; as Jahnke notes, he’s never been afforded consistently strong quarterback play. He’s also experienced heavy turnover at offensive coordinator, and in Buffalo, he again joins forces with the play-caller who led him to the best production of his career; Samuel recorded 1,051 scrimmage yards with the Carolina Panthers in the 2020 season, which was current Buffalo coordinator Joe Brady’s sole full season in charge of Carolina’s offense.
Samuel was previously used as both a pass-catcher and ballcarrier in Brady’s offense, a role he’ll again function in this fall. Allen is set to get the ball to Samuel in a myriad of ways, and it’s, thus, easy to be optimistic about the pass-catcher’s fortunes, especially in PPR leagues. There are certainly worse receivers to take a swing on late in your drafts.
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