The United States men’s basketball team begins its 2024 Olympic tournament on Sunday as a double-digit favorite over Nikola Jokic and Serbia. Here are odds from BetMGM Sportsbook:
| BetMGM odds | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| Serbia | +12.5 | OVER 180.5 | +500 |
| USA | -12.5 | UNDER 180.5 | -750 |
The United States played two of the three teams in its Olympic group prior to arriving in France, learning lessons as it posted wins in games that were mostly closer than expected. Despite a 5-0 record, opponents were within single digits of Team USA in the fourth quarter in all but one exhibition game.
On July 17, the Americans put together their most dominant performance, crushing Serbia 105-79. Despite trailing by six early in the second quarter, the USA dominated for stretches in Abu Dhabi and posted its most lopsided win against a team led by three-time NBA MVP Jokic of the Denver Nuggets.
That victory was also Team USA’s highest-scoring performance entering play in Paris, which begins against Serbia in Lille on Sunday.
Stephen Curry scored 24 points to lead the U.S. against Serbia, shooting 6-for-9 from 3-point range. Bam Adebayo (17 points) and Anthony Edwards (16 points) led a bench effort that outscored Serbia’s reserves 50-20, making the difference. Jokic finished with 16 points and 11 rebounds but shot 6-for-19 and was a team-worst minus-27 in his 28:20 of on-court action.
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USA vs. Serbia odds at Bet365: Spread, moneyline, total for men’s Olympic basketball game
On the Bet365 odds board, USA lays a bigger number against Serbia:
- Spread: USA -14.5 | Serbia +14.5
- Moneyline: USA -1300 | Serbia +800
- Total: OVER 179.5 | UNDER 179.5
Serbia vs. USA tips off at 11:15 a.m. ET (NBC). Pierre Mauroy Stadium will house the entire group stage, which begins with Puerto Rico and South Sudan battling.
The knockout stages will be played in Paris’ Accor Arena.
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USA betting news and analysis: Kevin Durant questionable
Kevin Durant, the only player in U.S. men’s basketball Olympic history to average 20 or more points per game in a single tournament, is questionable for the opener. He’s been unable to play in any exhibitions due to a calf injury but has been part of the team the entire time and has practiced for over a week. It appears increasingly likely that he’ll take the floor at some point in the group stage, potentially as soon as Sunday.
LeBron James has been the top performer for the U.S. over the past month-plus, saving the team from upset losses to South Sudan and Germany in London-based exhibitions. He’ll start alongside center Joel Embiid and guards Stephen Curry and Jrue Holiday. The fifth starter will be either Durant, Edwards, Jayson Tatum or Devin Booker. Tatum got the nod against Serbia in the United Arab Emirates, contributing four points and five rebounds but committing a team-high four turnovers.
Team USA is averaging 96.4 through its five exhibitions, surrendering 86.2. James has averaged 14.2 points per game, and despite Embiid starting, his struggles on defense have made Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo more valuable.
More: USA large favorite to win gold at 2024 Olympics
Serbia betting news and analysis: Jovic the x-factor
The Serbians fell by double-digits to Australia and the U.S. on consecutive days in the UAE. They opened their five-game exhibition slate with a victory over France in Lyon and enter the Olympics off a pair of conquests, posting blowout home victories over Japan and Greece last Sunday and Monday.
Jokic is getting significant help from Atlanta Hawks shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic and Olympiacos forward Filip Petrusev, who had a great career at Gonzaga. They scored in double-figures in both wins and will play a major role in Serbia’s fortunes.
The x-factor for the team ranked fourth globally by the FIBA is 21-year-old Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic, who will enter his third season in the NBA and started every playoff game for Erik Spoelstra a few months ago. The 6-foot-11 Jovic has been nursing a foot injury but played in both wins in Belgrade. He provides great length alongside Jokic and Petrusev, can put the ball on the floor and is an excellent shooter.
Point guards Aleksa Avramovic and Vasilije Micic (Charlotte Hornets) team with veteran Europe-based wings Ognjen Dobric, Marko Guduric and Vanja Marinkovic to provide Bogdanovic support on the perimeter and capitalize on the attention Jokic commands.
USA vs. Serbia prop bets
Here is a sampling of USA vs. Serbia prop bets from DraftKings.
- USA team total: Over 97.5 -115, Under 97.5 -115
- Serbia team total: Over 83.5 -115 Under 83.5 -115
- To go into OT: +1600
- Winning Margin 3-way: USA to win by 6+ -450, Either Team to win by 5 or less +360, Serbia to win by 6+ +1000
- LeBron James points + rebounds + assists: Over 24.5 -135, Under 24.5 +105
- Stephen Curry points + rebounds + assists: Over 19.5 -135, Under 19.5 +105
- Nikola Jokic points + rebounds + assists: Over 33.5 -115, Under 33.5 -115
- Bogdan Bogdanovic points + rebounds + assists: Over 24.5 -105, Under 24.5 -135
Davis and Embiid are favored by DraftKings to lead Team USA in rebounding (7.5). Jokic has had his points (17.5) and rebounds (11.5) numbers set with a likelihood of a double-double in play. James (15.5) and Curry (14.5) are expected to lead the Americans in scoring. Bogdanovic has seen his scoring total set at 16.5.
USA vs. Serbia prediction: Edwards to thrive, keeping unbeaten run alive
Team USA must adjust to a new arena and settle in, so I don’t see them blowing out Serbia by 26 again. Even winning by half of that margin, coincidentally the opening spread, seems ambitious. Look for the U.S. to win by 6-to-10 points, riding its tremendous depth to create separation.
Edwards is embracing being called upon to serve as a primary scoring option whenever he’s in the game, which makes riding the over on 13.5 points attractive. Feeding Embiid has also been a priority, so expect the U.S. to make Jokic work on the defensive end by feeding the 76ers’ 7-footer. Riding the OVER on 12.5 points from Embiid is a solid play.
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