USA vs. France Olympic basketball final betting preview: Odds, picks

Team USA finally found itself in a tough game at the Paris 2024 Olympics on Thursday against Serbia.

The Americans quickly fell behind by double digits to Nikola Jokic and Co. in the semifinals, trailing by as many as 17 at one point in the first half.

But they survived thanks to a dominant fourth quarter that set up an intriguing Gold Medal Game against France, which upset both Canada and Germany to clinch at least a Silver Medal.

The French are essentially playing with house money, which makes them dangerous, but could they really knock off this loaded Team USA roster?

Saturday’s Olympic Gold Medal Game between the USA and France tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET from Bercy Arena in Paris. The contest will be available on both NBC and Peacock.

USA vs. France Olympic Basketball Odds

Below are the spread, moneyline and over-under total odds for USA vs. France.

USA vs. France spread odds

USA vs. France moneyline odds

USA vs. France O/U total odds

USA-France Olympic Final Betting Analysis

USA coming off gutty win over hot-shooting Serbia

Serbia, which made 15 3-pointers in the first three quarters of the semifinal matchup against the U.S., led that game 76-63 going into the fourth quarter.

But Stephen Curry and LeBron James were lights-out at both ends of the court down the stretch, as Team USA outscored Serbia 32-15 in the fourth quarter to pull out a 95-91 win.

France’s supporting cast enters Gold Medal Game on a tear

France was not expected to beat either Canada in the quarterfinals last Tuesday or Germany in the semis on Thursday. Europe-based forwards Guerschon Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier and center Mathias Lessort came up huge in both games, though.

France bludgeoned Canada inside from the opening tip en route to a 45-29 halftime lead and a total of 42 free-throw attempts in an 82-73 victory.

The French defense was the story of the win over Germany, as France controlled the second half despite shooting just 44 percent from the field, and survived a late push to beat Germany 73-69.

Yabusele (who went No. 16 overall to Boston in the 2016 NBA Draft), Cordinier (a second-round NBA draft pick of the Hawks in 2016) and Lessort (a second-round selection by the 76ers in 2017) have all more than looked the part of former NBA Draft picks over the last two games for France.

Thanks to those three, who combined to score 43 of France’s 73 points in the semifinal win over Germany and 55 of Les Bleus’ 82 points against Canada in the quarters, France has a chance to win Gold as massive home underdogs this weekend.

What to watch for in USA vs. France Gold Medal Game

Saturday’s final will be a fascinating test for U.S. coach Steve Kerr and the loaded American roster. This team needed 36 points (on 9-for-14 3-point shooting) from Curry and a triple-double from James (16 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) to finally wear down Serbia after Jokic (17 points, 11 assists) and Serbia’s underrated backcourt started the game on fire.

The Athletic’s Shams Charania tweeted on Friday night that Kevin Durant, who was quiet for most of the semifinal win over Serbia but scored seven huge points in the fourth quarter, will start on Saturday. That means Kerr’s starting five with Gold on the line will feature Durant, Curry, James, Devin Booker and Joel Embiid.

France is expected to stick with the defensive-minded bunch that has been oustanding over the last 80 minutes: former Knicks top-10 draft pick Frank Ntilikina and Cordinier in the backcourt, with NBA vet Nicolas Batum, Yabusele and Wembanyama in the frontcourt.

Whether four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who played a total of just eight minutes in his team’s quarterfinal and semfinal wins, plays a bigger role on Saturday will be one of the more compelling subplots of the matchup.

Expect Americans’ depth to make the difference

France will test the defensive mettle and physicality of the U.S. in the paint early and often.

Germany entered the semifinals as one of the best defensive teams at these Olympics, but that did not stop France, especially Yabusele and Cordinier, from attacking the paint. That aggression paid off, as those two combined to knock down 11 of their 17 two-point attempts, with Yabusele barreling to the rim at will.

They’ll face more resistance against James, Embiid and backup USA bigs Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, though. The Americans’ size should make it nearly impossible for France to keep this game close without a much better 3-point shooting performance than it got in its last two games. The French went just 6-for-27 from 3-point land against Germany after making 9-of-28 3’s against Canada.

“Hot take”: Kerr and the Americans just have too much talent, and the blueprint Serbia established for beating this team — a uniquely talented seven-footer feeding shooters on the perimeter — is not something France, or anyone else, can replicate.

USA vs. France Gold Medal Game Best Bets

Anyone who backed France on either the first-half spread or the moneyline against Canada and/or Germany has done very well for themselves this week.

The home crowd, and the momentum this team has, make any bet on France to win — or at least keep it close — in the first quarter or first half, tempting.

At first glance, the spread for this game looks disrespectful to the hosts, but the U.S. has the bodies to make France come up with a shooting performance that we’ve seen little reason to believe they can produce.

So we’ll go with the Americans to win — though a close game for the first 20 or 30 minutes should come as no surprise — but we’re staying away from the spread in this matchup.

Another safe bet in USA-France is the under on the team total for France, which is unlikely to reach 80 points after scoring 79 or fewer in three of its four Olympic games that ended in regulation.

Lastly, for anyone (understandably) banking on another stat-stuffing performance from James, yes, you can bet on whether he’ll tally another triple-double. In fact, FanDuel’s odds make that prop an awfully tempting way to spend a quarter- or half-unit.

Best bets:

• France first quarter moneyline (+270) DraftKings
• France first half +9.5 (-115) DraftKings
• France team total under 80.5 (-115) bet365
• LeBron James to record a triple-double (+950) FanDuel

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