A bitter cold has already pushed the temperature below zero in Ukraine, which is preparing for its third winter of war. In its strategy of trying to freeze the country and plunge it into darkness, Russia has intensified its attacks on the energy sector with 11 offensives so far this year. In the most recent one a week ago, it used 91 missiles and 97 drone bombs and left a million consumers without electricity. Kyiv is strengthening the defense of critical infrastructure with the help of its partners as the most difficult months approach.
In a message to Western allies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week stressed the urgent need for anti-aircraft defense systems, crucial to protecting key infrastructure in electricity distribution. In parallel, Ukraine is defending its energy grid with passive systems — concrete and defensive frames — while working to repair the damage and putting in place contingency plans with equipment, systems, and personnel. The need for spare equipment, turbines, cables, and other components is constant.
Kyiv’s allies pledged Wednesday to prioritize aid to Ukraine in this area. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said there was “a clear agreement at the table that helping Ukraine, particularly with its infrastructure, has to be a priority […] We have to make sure that whatever air defense we can give them is being supplied to Ukraine,” he stressed.
The daily routine of Ukrainian citizens includes checking the power cut times in the morning to organize basic activities such as putting on a washing machine, cooking, or taking an elevator. Camping gas has become a regular feature in many homes in the country that do not have piped gas installed. The sidewalks are full of generators that provide light to shops and restaurants, and those who can afford it invest in electric accumulators that cost no less than $1,000. Solar panels are also beginning to sprout on some roofs, driven by legislative changes to simplify the purchase and import of renewable energy equipment.
The media publishes service information, such as which rechargeable lamps to buy or how power outages affect household appliances. Ukrainians are very conscious of every light they turn on. They save every watt possible to endure another winter in the dark.
Zelenskiy said in mid-November that the country is in a better position to face this winter than the previous two. “Psychologically, the country is better prepared than in the first year of war, but last year we had more energy reserves than this year,” explained Olena Pavlenko, president of the Dixi Group think tank, at a conference on energy security on Wednesday in Kyiv. Whether the winter ends up being more or less harsh will depend on temperatures, attacks on infrastructure, and the ability to stop them with anti-aircraft defenses and how quickly the damage can be repaired. In the worst-case scenario, Dixi Group estimates that the blackouts could last between 15 and 16 hours a day, compared to the current average of four to six hours.
The United Nations estimates that Ukraine has lost 60% of its electricity-generating capacity. Russian attacks have destroyed or damaged all of the country’s thermal and hydroelectric plants. Adding up all energy sources, the country manages to generate about 13 gigawatts (GW), but when temperatures plummet, consumption can soar to around 18-19 GW. This week, consumption is already rising as the grid has yet to recover from the latest attack and outages are spreading across all regions.
Increase in imports
Since last Sunday, the EU has increased its capacity to export energy to Ukraine (from 1.7 GW to 2.1 GW) through connections with the infrastructure of neighboring countries. But synchronization with the European infrastructure is primarily intended to solve emergencies. Excessive exports can destabilize the rest of the network. “We have to be careful,” explained Frank Reyer, vice-president of the Operating Committee of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, at the Kyiv conference. The energy that Ukraine can import from the EU can cover the needs of 2.1 million consumers. “Unfortunately, that is all we can do,” said Reyer. For her part, Pavlenko stressed that the high cost limits this possibility, which is only within the reach of large companies such as the Gulliver shopping mall in Kyiv.
The Kremlin’s attacks, which have recently targeted high-voltage power substations, have raised fears of a winter of darkness and cold. From January 1, moreover, “everything indicates that Gazprom will cut off the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine,” according to Deputy Energy Minister Roman Andarak. Putin justified last week’s strikes as retaliation for the Ukrainian army’s use of long-range missiles from the United States and the United Kingdom against targets on Russian soil. Russia had been stockpiling more advanced missiles for such bombings for months. On November 17, Russia also launched a massive attack with 120 missiles and 90 drones, targeting a precarious energy system that was hit by another attack of similar magnitude in August. The Ukrainian army is focusing on attacking the Russian gas and oil industry.
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced that the United States had pledged $825 million to help Ukraine’s energy sector. This amount, which is in addition to a similar package of aid announced in the summer, will be used to restore critical infrastructure while working to reform the energy sector and promote a transition to a greener economy. On Wednesday, Denmark announced a $6.3 million aid package, according to local media.
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