CNN
—
President Donald Trump will sign executive actions Monday that cement his intention to double down on fossil fuels and reverse America’s progress on climate change and clean energy, including his pledge to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement.
Trump’s day-one actions come as climate change-fueled fires ravage Southern California, following the globe’s hottest year on record during which two major hurricanes – Helene and Milton – devastated the Southeast.
In his inauguration speech, Trump said he will declare a “national energy emergency,” though United States is producing more oil now than any other country at any other time. He intends to streamline permitting and review regulations that “impose undue burdens on energy production and use, including mining and processing of non-fuel minerals,” according to a list of priorities from Trump’s press office.
He also intends to take action to end land and water leasing for wind energy, and undo the Biden administration’s actions that promote electric vehicles.
Trump views energy prices as central to his mission to address widespread frustrations with the cost of living. He has argued that slashing red tape will help drive down energy prices and fight overall inflation.
“The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices,” Trump said during his inaugural address. “That’s why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill.”
Earlier this month, scientists declared the planet for the first time breached 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming last year — a significant benchmark that experts researching Earth’s tipping points have warned humanity to avoid, and the goal world leaders aspired to when they signed the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Beyond 1.5 degrees, the human-caused climate crisis — fueled by heat-trapping fossil fuel pollution — starts to exceed the ability of humanity and the natural world to adapt.
The rollercoaster of US participation in international climate talks could itself be harmful, said David Wirth, a professor at Boston College Law School and public international law expert.
“The integrity of the United States’ commitment to this issue would be drawn into question, also (its) reliability as a treaty partner,” Wirth told CNN.
Trump declares: ‘America’s decline is over’ in inauguration speech
Oil and the cost of living
Trump has vowed to reverse Biden’s order to ban offshore oil drilling in 625 million acres of ocean, but undoing it may require an act of Congress. He has often talked about opening up Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to more drilling, but recent auctions in this pristine region, which is home to threatened species, have flopped due to a lack of interest from the oil industry itself.
“We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it,” Trump said Monday.
Analysts are skeptical that Trump’s moves — if they survive inevitable legal challenges — will increase US oil production or push gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon, as the president previously promised.
Although Trump is laser-focused on keeping gas prices low, the reality is even the White House has limited direct power.
“When I worked for President Bush, I looked very hard for the magic wand that lowered oil prices right away. It doesn’t exist,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former Bush energy official. “A president can’t cut oil prices.”
The United States is already producing more oil than any country in world history. And unlike in OPEC nations, US oil production is set by the free market, not the government. Government policy plays a role in influencing supply decisions, but ultimately it’s up to the private sector to decide how much to drill.
So far, oil companies have signaled they’re in no rush to dramatically ramp up production. Many oil CEOs have learned the lessons of the recent past when excessive drilling caused a supply glut that crashed prices.
Just 14% of oil and gas executives plan to significantly increase capital spending this year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of 132 firms. In fact, more oil executives indicated they plan to scale back spending than increase it.
Trump in his speech vowed that one of his first actions in office would be to repeal an electric vehicle mandate.
“Through my action today we will end the Green New Deal and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry and keeping my sacred pledge to our great American auto workers,” he said. “In other words, you’ll be able to buy the car of your choice.”
However, there is no such mandate.
The Environmental Protection Agency in March rolled out the new tailpipe emission rules that targeted 35% to 56% of all new car sales be EVs by 2032.
Americans are able to buy traditional gasoline-powered vehicles and have continued to do so. Electric vehicle sales in the US rose about 7% in 2024 to 1.3 million vehicles, according to figures from Cox Automotive, but that made up only 8% of passenger vehicles sales of 16 million during the year.
Elon Musk, a key supporter of Trump and the CEO of Tesla, the world’s largest EV maker, has said on his social media platform X that he supports ending tax credits for EV buyers.
Auto analysts believe that ending the tax credit would benefit Tesla, even though it makes Tesla cars more price competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles. But ending the credit is likely to reduce competition Tesla now faces from legacy automakers who are rolling out more EV models of their own.