After a weekend of upsets, the college football rankings have hit a point where AP Top 25 poll voters will have to decide how to weigh recent scores, resumes and head-to-head results to sort out a confusing jumble of teams inside the top 20.
The easiest prediction to make is that Ole Miss will be moving up after a resounding win against Georgia. It’s the highest-ranked opponent Ole Miss has defeated at home in front the biggest crowd in program history. The current location of the goal post pieces is unknown, but the impact of Lane Kiffin taking down Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs is significant and will be reflected in the rankings when voters update their ballots.
But where it gets difficult after Week 11 is how the head-to-head results don’t quite line up. Ole Miss will be on the way up, while LSU, which beat the Rebels earlier this season, is going to be dropping after Alabama ran up the score in Death Valley. The Crimson Tide figure to be moving up as well, but where they stack up against Ole Miss will be an interesting debate as both teams have two losses and notable wins but also defeats to teams that are likely to be unranked in the new AP poll.
And how will those teams on the rise stack up against Miami, which just took its first loss of the season at the hands of Georgia Tech? The Bulldogs’ drop also seems notable considering it has a head-to-head win against one-loss Texas, which is a top-five team that rolled Florida on Saturday. AP voters often use a combination of record, resumes and head-to-head results to sort out their ballots, but there’s too many conflicts to make any rankings process clean.
Plus, there’s the impact of the College Football Playoff Rankings.
In the 10 seasons of the College Football Playoff era, we have seen plenty of instances where there is a cat-and-mouse relationship between the selection committee and the AP voters; the opinions of one poll might influence the other with a release date two days apart. AP voters will sometimes be more eager to offer support for a team the committee favors, and sometimes it is that Sunday release of the AP Top 25 that sets a nice starting point for the expectations for what the committee will announce on Tuesday night.
In the first release for 2024, we saw 13 of the top 17 teams with the exact same rankings as the AP poll with the only differences being one-spot swaps at Nos. 2-3 and Nos. 14-15. That is not our general expectation for what’s coming after the shakeups of Week 11, but for now, our job is only to project how the AP voters will react.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll to look on Sunday after Week 11:
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): There is not a better option for No. 1 in the country than Oregon, which got to 10-0 with a 21-point home win against Maryland. The Ducks were unanimous last week and likely could be again, even if the victory came with some hiccups and penalty issues along the way. Up next is a road trip to Wisconsin, a week off and then the regular-season finale against rival Washington.
2. Ohio State (3): On a day filled with shakeups, there was no question about whether Ohio State was going to be on upset alert. The Buckeyes will take over the No. 2 spot just behind the Ducks after a 45-0 shutout win against Purdue.
3. Texas (5): The Longhorns put together a dominant wire-to-wire performance against an undermanned Florida team early in the day on Saturday, and that 49-17 score will be a good reminder to AP voters why they have Texas as a top-five team.
4. Penn State (6): Great response from the Nittany Lions to bounce back from a disappointing defeat with a dominating 35-6 win against Washington.
5. Indiana (8): While the Hoosiers did fall short of meeting the oddsmakers’ expectations as two-touchdown favorites, Indiana did beat one of the most talented opponents on its schedule to improve to 10-0 on the season. Our projection is that even with a close win, simply beating a program of Michigan’s caliber will flip just enough ballots to see Indiana make up the razor-thin gap between their positioning last week and at least one of the one-loss teams ahead of them in the rankings.
6. Tennessee (7): The status of Nico Iamaleava is of the utmost concern for Tennessee coming out of a 33-14 win against Mississippi State. The Vols quarterback did not play in the second half because of an upper body injury, and with Georgia coming up next week, all attention will be on his status. But, in terms of the rankings, there should not be too much adjustment after a win that mostly met expectations, especially without QB1 in the lineup for the second half.
7. BYU (9): The Cougars are currently in action against Utah.
8. Notre Dame (10): Style were points were there for the taking and Notre Dame gladly took them in a 52-3 win against Florida State. This is now five straight games where the Fighting Irish have scored 30 points or more and four straight double-digit wins for a team that’s looking increasingly ready to compete against the best teams in the country in the College Football Playoff.
9. Alabama (11): There is a ceiling for Alabama’s move up in the rankings even if voters will be more enthusiastic about the Crimson Tide following Saturday night’s win at LSU. With a head-to-head defeat to Tennessee and one more loss than the Vols, we’re projecting that Alabama will be moving up into the top 10 and gain a lot more consensus support as a top-10 team but remain outside the top five.
10. Ole Miss (16): The Rebels are going to be the notable movers up thanks to not only beating a top-five team but doing so handily in adverse conditions with a quarterback who got hobbled in the victory. Jaxson Dart’s gritty performance highlights a statement win for Ole Miss as it pursues its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.
11. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs dropped to 7-2 with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss. Wins at Texas and against Clemson helps the argument. With losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, there’s no bad losses. Still, the optics are not great.
12. Miami (4): While this might be on the aggressive side for projecting Miami’s fall, the lack of high-end wins gives the Hurricanes a profile that is closer to Boise State and SMU, so that’s where we project they will land as the focus turns to winning the ACC to guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff.
13. Boise State (12): There could be some shuffling after a close call against Nevada, but we’re ultimately projecting that the Broncos hold steady in the pecking order.
14. SMU (13): The Mustangs were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Boston College.
15. Texas A&M (15): The Aggies were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against New Mexico State.
16. Army (18): The return of star quarterback Bryson Dailey was the headline, but the real key to Army improving to 9-0 was a pair of end zone interceptions by the defense in a 14-3 win at North Texas.
17. Clemson (19): Things looked bleak early when Virginia Tech blocked a field goal — the third blocked field goal in two weeks for Clemson — and returned it for a touchdown, but the Tigers took control of the game in a hostile environment and held on for a 10-point win at Virginia Tech.
18. Colorado (21): After going down 13-0 early, the Buffs got the offense rolling and made enough stops in the second half to get in and out of Lubbock with a 41-27 win against Texas Tech. The Buffs are now 7-2 and firmly in the mix for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
19. LSU (14): The Tigers’ win against Ole Miss helps their chances to remain in the top 25, but where they sit among teams in the 20s will depend on voter preference. Without a ton of obvious options moving into the rankings, we’re projecting they stay just inside the top 20. But anything from No. 17 to No. 22 would be a viable spot for LSU to land.
20. Washington State (20): The Cougars are currently in action against Utah State.
21. Kansas State (22): The Wildcats were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Arizona State.
22. Louisville (25): The Cardinals were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Stanford.
23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers were 26th in voting points last week but did show up in the College Football Playoff rankings at No. 24. Those factors will help with Saturday night’s win against Oklahoma to move Missouri back into the AP poll.
24. South Carolina (NR): The Gamecocks followed up last week’s field-storming celebration in the wake of beating top-10 Texas A&M with a solid 28-7 road win against Vanderbilt. The result will bounce the Commodores from the top 25 and move South Carolina, which was 27th in voting points last week, back into the AP poll for the first time since the final rankings of the 2022 season.
25. Tulane (NR): Beating Temple alone won’t have voters rushing to add Tulane to their ballot, but the Green Wave are demanding more attention after winning 52-6 to improve to 8-2 overall and 6-0 in conference play. With games against Navy and Memphis left on the schedule there is still work to be done to secure a spot in the American Athletic Conference title game, but Jon Sumrall is riding a seven-game winning streak with a team that’s playing its best football of the year at the right time.
Projected to drop out: No. 17 Iowa State, No. 22 Pitt, No. 24 Vanderbilt