Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) New England Patriots/New York Jets Under 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
Last week’s Thursday night game extended the trend of unders on this short week spot, and I don’t think tonight will be any different. Teams always have incentive to keep things light and vanilla on Thursdays, which I think applies even more to this matchup. The Jets are playing their third game of the season and it’s only been 11 days since they lost in San Francisco on Monday night.
That should incentivize them to keep the ball on the ground and get this game over with, something they should be able to do with an excellent running back duo. And for the Patriots, I see them also keeping it on the ground since their already awful o-line is now missing two starters, and trying to throw on the Jets defense in that situation is ill-advised. With primetime unders continuing to cash (3-0 last week) I’m sensing another frustrating game for Al Michaels to call.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Under 0.5 Passing TD’s (+120)
0.25 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Under 27.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Rodgers Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Alt Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (+155)
0.25 Unit – Mike Williams Under 1.5 Receptions (+145)
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) South Alabama/Appalachian State Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
This total ticked down a point from the opener due to rain being expected in Boone, NC tonight, but it should be over with around kickoff and fairly light. There’s also no wind, which is a big relief for anyone expecting points, and I definitely am. It’s an issue of poor defense for me, as both teams are in the bottom-25 nationally in passing success rate allowed.
They’re also both bottom-35 in PFF coverage grade, so two pass-happy offenses should thrive in this game. South Alabama has an electric freshman Gio Lopez at quarterback to keep them in this tough road spot, and might well spring the upset. But the Jaguars just can’t stop anything, so I see both teams trading points all night here.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream/NY Liberty Under 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The spread in this game has the Liberty favored by just 1.5 points, a far cry from them being favored by 10 points on average against Atlanta in the other meetings this season. So it’s obvious that New York, who has the top seed locked up, will be resting stars such as Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and others tonight.
That gives Atlanta a chance here, and they need this win to secure a playoff spot, so I see them leaning on their defense to get it. The Dream have quietly put together a good season on the defensive end, but injury issues have kept their offense quiet as the lowest-scoring team in the league. These teams already went 2-1 under this total in the regular season series, so with Atlanta’s slow pace and motivated defense dictating the style tonight against a lot of reserves, I see points as tough to come by.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +95.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.