Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s women’s semi-finals at the US Open, with his outright pick Aryna Sabalenka still on course for glory.
Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka (2359 BST)
My outright pick Sabalenka has done little wrong so far, losing just the one set en route to this stage, and the defeat of Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals saw her become odds-on for the title.
If you’re also on her antepost, you might not want to get involved here, although with Navarro out at 7/2 there’s some sort of hedging chance if you feel the American has something to offer.
I’d suggest she’ll do better than Qinwen Zheng, who managed to win just three games against Sabalenka on Tuesday.
The Chinese simply couldn’t deal with her opponent’s power and succumbed meekly for the third time in as many meetings.
Navarro’s defence is better and her court coverage is very strong, as she showed against Coco Gauff in round four. She’ll try to disrupt the rhythm with her strong slice and drop shot, which was in fine working order on Tuesday.
But Sabalenka has bigger weapons than Gauff and it was notable that when Paula Badosa was playing well in their quarter-final, Navarro struggled to find solutions to her greater weight of shot. Sadly, for Badosa, it didn’t last and she was simply too inconsistent.
Navarro did manage to win the pair’s only previous hardcourt meeting, although that came on the sluggish courts of Indian Wells back in March. The Belarusian’s groundstrokes will have more bite on the faster Laykold surface of Flushing Meadows and she’s certainly playing better than she was back in the spring.
Sabalenka took revenge at Roland Garros, where she didn’t face a break point, and the fact that she’s held serve 91% of the time so far at this tournament, suggests it could be a tough day on return for Navarro.
The underdog also has the added issue of playing in her first Grand Slam semi-final so the potential for nerves is clearly high – and we saw how she got edgy when trying to close out against Gauff.
Sabalenka is playing too well for her run to stop now in my opinion and I feel there’s potential for her to win this fairly comfortably.
Four of her five victories so far have come inside 20.5 games and I’m happy to play the unders on that total-games line in this one at a shade of odds-on.
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Jessica Pegula v Karolina Muchova (to follow)
This match has plenty of potential but it’s not one I have no interest in getting involved with financially.
I use the word potential for good reason here as it could easily turn out to be a damp squib.
Muchova spent plenty of time in her quarter-final rushing off court to go the bathroom and while she didn’t go into the gruesome details after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia, most of us can work out what the issue was.
She’s clearly not 100% physically which is a real shame for a player who has had way more than her fair share of injuries over the years.
This match takes place little more than 24 hours later so you have to wonder whether she’s going to be at her best here.
If she is, and it’s a big if, then this could catch fire.
Muchova’s ability to mix things up is a joy to watch and that could unsettle a player in terrific form.
Following her upset quarter-final victory over Swiatek (a match in which the Pole served poorly, it has to be said), Pegula has won 14 of her last 15 matches during the harcourt swing, a run which includes one over Muchova in Cincinnati. Pegula came from a set down to win that day.
Neither player has lost a set so far in New York with Muchova serving particularly well.
She’s held in 88% of her service games and, notably, has won 60% of points played behind her second serve, a figure that compares favourably to Pegula’s 48%.
However, a look at their Cincy clash showed there was no such advantage, Pegula winning 67% of points on her second serve that day, Muchova only 46%.
It’s worth mentioning that ‘maiden semi-final’ issue again here – this will be the biggest match of Pegula’s life, whereas Muchova has played in one of this magnitude before (and won it, at last year’s French Open).
If I knew Muchova was properly fit, I might be tempted by her odds of 11/8 but given the situation, I can’t get involved here.
Posted at 1115 BST on 05/09/24
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