Before the Olympics got underway, the men’s basketball field for Paris 2024 was praised as the deepest in the history of the Games.
So far, though, Team USA has clearly been the best team on the court in each of its matchups. That won’t change in Tuesday’s quarterfinal clash with Brazil.
The U.S., which was favored by at least 27 against both South Sudan on July 31 and vs. Puerto Rico on August 3, is laying 26 points or more in Tuesday’s quarterfinal clash with Brazil, which tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
While coach Steve Kerr and the Americans rolled through Group C, Brazil went just 1-2 in Group B, with double-digit losses to France (78-66) and Germany (86-73) and a 102-84 win over Japan.
USA vs. Brazil Olympic Basketball Odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 | |
| USA | -27 (-108) | -26.5 (-106) | -26.5 (-115) |
| Brazil | +27 (-112) | +26.5 (-114) | +26.5 (-105) |
In case the spread for this game doesn’t make it clear, the fact that the USA is -50000 on the moneyline at FanDuel tells you that the question — once again — is not whether this team will win, but how long it will need to pull away from Brazil.
USA vs. Brazil Olympic Quarterfinal Analysis
Brazil played well in its Group B finale, beating Japan by 18 points despite entering the fourth quarter with just a four-point lead at 77-73. It’s worth noting, though, that Japan was without its top scorer in that game, as Rui Hachimura suffered a calf injury and left the Olympics after his team’s second game.
Against both Germany and France, Brazil struggled to generate quality looks, as it shot just 40% from the field against those teams. That doesn’t bode well for the underdogs’ chances against Team USA, which limited each of Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico to 42% shooting or worse from the floor.
Is Team USA due for a hot 3-point shooting performance?
Entering its matchup against Puerto Rico, bettors who were backing the U.S. to cover the massive 36.5-point spread (ESPN BET) needed the Americans to shoot well from outside. Instead, Team USA endured its worst 3-point shooting performance of the Games (9-for-32 — 28%) and won 104-83 after overcoming a poor first quarter to lead 64-45 at halftime.
It’s hard to expect the U.S. to shoot as well on Tuesday as it did in its Olympic opener against Serbia, when it knocked down 18 of its 32 3-point attempts. But as long as the Americans can make around 35% of their 3-pointers — against a team that allowed Japan to shoot 16-for-41 from behind the arc — Team USA should be able to win this one by at least 20.
USA vs. Brazil Olympic Quarterfinal Best Bets
Obviously, the U.S. will need to win by more than that to cover, which makes the spread for this game a stay-away. Instead, considering taking the Americans on the first-half spread, which is as low as 14.5 (-115) at bet365.
There are a few reasons to expect Brazil to struggle to get to 80 points, starting with the fact that they were held to well under that by both Germany and France. Brazil lost 86-73 to the former and 78-66 to the latter.
Brazil’s poor shooting from the field against Germany and France — combined with its tough matchup against an opponent with a ton of size, depth and quality defenders — makes taking Brazil to go under its team total another smart play.
- U.S. First-Half Spread -14.5 (-115 at bet365)
- Brazil Team Total Under 79.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
- Under 184.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
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