A beachfront building in San Juan threatened by sea level rise due to climate change (Credit: Tony Mendoza | Dreamstime.com)
More than 1,700 U.S. communities have at-risk critical infrastructure assets, a new analysis found.
Puerto Rico is one of the areas most affected by climate change in the U.S., with as many as 325 critical infrastructure assets threatened by rising seas, according to new analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
Climate change is rapidly worsening tidal flooding and escalating risks to essential and valuable coastal infrastructure that millions of people depend on, the UCS said in its report, “Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience.”
Nearly 1,100 critical infrastructure assets along the U.S. coastline would flood 12 times per year on average, or the equivalent of once a month, by 2050, assuming a medium rate of sea level rise. That number could jump to more than 5,300 critical infrastructure assets at risk by 2100, according to UCS’ analysis.
Puerto Rico is among the more than 1,700 U.S. communities with at-risk critical infrastructure assets.
Assuming a medium sea level rise scenario — 3.2 feet globally, on average, by 2100 — and bearing in mind that the amount of sea level rise will largely depend on heat-trapping emissions released in the coming decades, the UCS found that as many as 28 critical infrastructure assets on the island would be at risk of being flooded twice annually, on average, by 2050. Of those assets, 20 would be at risk of flooding the equivalent of once every other week.
The number of critical infrastructure assets in Puerto Rico at risk of disruptive flooding is expected to increase by more than 55% by 2050 and 18-fold by 2100 versus a 2020 baseline.
By the end of the century, as many as 325 of the island’s critical infrastructure assets would be at risk of flooding, on average, twice annually by 2100. Of those assets, 322 would be at risk of flooding the equivalent of once each month and 300 the equivalent of once every other week, the UCS reported.
Puerto Rico ranks seventh for infrastructure at risk of disruptive flooding by 2100. The critical infrastructure most at risk of disruptive flooding comprises housing buildings and industrial contamination sites, according to the study.
The USC noted that the amount of sea level rise that occurs between 2050 and 2100 will depend on global heat-trapping gasses released over the next several decades and Earth’s physical response — namely the extent of land-based ice loss and ocean warming — caused by those emissions.
This is why sharply curtailing heat-trapping emissions, phasing out fossil fuels and ramping up clean energy solutions must also be cornerstones of actions to help protect coastal communities, the USC said.
For its analysis, the UCS used a combination of data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges, U.S. government agencies and three sea level rise scenarios developed by a U.S. interagency task force.
The UCS determined when critical infrastructure assets along the entire coastline of the contiguous U.S., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam would be at risk of being routinely flooded by high tides at least two, 12 or 26 times per year in the coming decades.
The analysis defined critical infrastructure as assets and facilities that provide functions necessary to sustain daily life or that if flooded could impose societal hazards. The UCS analyzed six types of critical infrastructure: educational institutions, energy infrastructure, government facilities, public health and safety buildings, industrial contamination sites, and subsidized housing, with the latter representing the single most at-risk category of vital infrastructure.
The UCS used the White House Council on Environmental Quality’s Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool to ascertain if the infrastructure at risk of flooding is located in disadvantaged or non-disadvantaged communities as defined by the tool. Factors that contribute to a community being considered disadvantaged include burdens they face related to health, housing, climate change and income.
Due to a variety of factors — including coastline length, sea level rise rate, land subsidence and zoning laws — some states have more critical infrastructure assets exposed to disruptive tidal flooding in the coming decades than others.
The UCS found that California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey have the highest numbers of critical infrastructure assets that will need to be made more resilient or be relocated to safer ground.
The report offers recommendations for policymakers and public and private decision-makers to prepare communities for the risks and challenges that lie ahead. These recommendations include using the “best available science to inform near- and long-term risk planning and scaling up public and private funding — beyond allocations in existing policies such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act — to increase the climate resilience of coastal infrastructure.”
Puerto Rico is significantly vulnerable
With a density of almost 449 inhabitants per square kilometer and 56% of its population living in the coastal municipalities, Puerto Rico’s population is highly vulnerable to hazards, particularly those who are economically disadvantaged, less prepared and under socially inequitable conditions, such as insufficient infrastructure and services, according to the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
The coastal zone of the San Juan metro area and nearby areas is where most hotels, essential infrastructure and power plants are located, with some power plants less than 160 feet from the waterline and less than 6 feet above sea level, according to the portal.
“Rapid urbanization that occurred during past decades has drastically covered Puerto Rico’s watersheds with impervious surfaces. As a result, there are thousands of people living in flood-prone areas,” it states.
A paper recently published by Research Internal Displacement noted that although small island developing states (SIDS), with which Puerto Rico shares some characteristics, contribute little to global warming, emitting on average only 1.5% as much greenhouse gas as industrialized countries, they are disproportionately affected by the consequences of climate change.
“Puerto Rico faces significant vulnerability to climate related hazards, especially impacting those who are economically marginalized and living in socially inequitable conditions characterized by inadequate infrastructure and services,” the paper states.
“Rapid urban growth over recent decades has significantly increased the presence of impervious surfaces across Puerto Rico’s watersheds, leading to situations where thousands of individuals now reside in regions susceptible to flooding. Additionally, intense storms trigger numerous landslides annually in the island’s mountainous regions, resulting in significant property damage and loss of life,” the paper added.
Because of Puerto Rico’s unique status, the island has not fully participated in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and related intergovernmental processes aimed at addressing vulnerability and building resilience, according to the paper.
G. Torres is a freelance journalist, writer and editor. She’s worked in business journalism for more than 25 years, including posts as a reporter and copy editor at Caribbean Business, business editor at the San Juan Star and oil markets editor at S&P Global Platts (previously a McGraw Hill company). She’s also worked in marketing on and off for decades, now freelancing for local marketing and communications agencies.