Monday, December 23, 2024

Shopping for Ten Hag: A defensive midfielder to complement Kobbie Mainoo

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Welcome to the 2024 edition of Shopping for Ten Hag, where we use analytical data to identify players the Manchester United manager could use to revamp his squad.

Across the 2023 and 2022 summer windows, we examined the Dutchman’s past sides and tactics to create a guide for the type of players he might be interested in.

Here, we focus on finding a defensive midfielder to partner Kobbie Mainoo.

The players included have been analysed using smarterscout data, which gives a rating from zero to 99, relating to either how often they perform a given action compared with others at their position or how effective they are at it.


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What sort of player is Mainoo and what does he need?

No midfielder came out of United’s 2023-24 looking good. Their odd combination of pressing high and defending deep left far too much space in the middle to be patrolled adequately. Yet among the chaos came Mainoo, a 19-year-old who plays with the maturity of someone in their mid-to-late twenties. Be it in the middle, out wide, close to the opponent’s penalty area or close to his own, Mainoo is a player team-mates trust with the ball, safe in the knowledge he’ll be able to protect it and provide a platform for others.

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There are glimpses of Mainoo’s play that suggest he could develop into one of the best all-round midfielders in the Premier League, but at the moment he is most effective as a press-resistant, box-to-box ball carrier. Should United purchase a player who can give Mainoo the time to develop into the best — and possibly most rounded — version of himself? Or do they buy a player suited to who Mainoo is right now, ask the teenager to focus on what he’s already good at, and roll with the punches?


Why are United looking at Manuel Ugarte?

Paris Saint-Germain defensive midfielder Manuel Ugarte has been linked with United this summer.

What does his pizza chart tell us?

  • Ugarte likes to hunt. He’s a defensive midfielder who wins the ball back from the opposition (see his high score for ball recoveries and interceptions). The Uruguay international is a proactive, aggressive tackler and would give United the counter-pressing intensity lost last season when Casemiro was injured.
  • He has the stamina, aggression, and application to get up and down the pitch and disrupt opposition moves; however, his magnetism to the ball means he can get pulled out of position when defending closer to his own goal.
  • Ugarte gets a nosebleed once he enters the final third. His below-average attacking metrics (the sections in blue) indicate he is a defensive midfielder who only wants to defend. He’s not a good or consistent shooter of the ball. He rarely carried the ball into the final third last season, nor did he look to get onto the ball in the opposition penalty area.
  • He can be inconsistent when defending in the air. While Ugarte often leaps and contests for goal kicks and long balls, he’s not the one you look to dominate the initial aerial duels. He instead prefers to attempt to regain the second ball.
  • He’s a conservative passer who prefers to retain possession than try to make something happen. This meant he stuck out like a sore thumb in Luis Enrique’s possession-focused system at PSG last season. He was dropped from PSG’s starting XI for the Champions League knockout stages, with Luis Enrique preferring a midfield pivot of Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz.

If Ten Hag wishes to continue with a man-to-man defensive setup in 2024-25, Ugarte’s ball wins can be helpful. If the United manager wants to build something more robust, Ugarte may need help to stop getting dribbled past.


Let’s talk about… Youssouf Fofana

Monaco midfielder Youssouf Fofana is on the radar of several clubs.

Here’s why…

  • When Fofana sees an opponent with the ball, he’ll look to win it back before hammering a pass into the space behind them. He’s pretty good at both tasks (see the high scores for ball recoveries and progressive passing), albeit not a defensive terrier on the same level as Ugarte. What’s also interesting about Fofana is he is willing to carry the ball further up the field, teasing opportunities, similar to Mainoo.
  • Unlike Mainoo, Fofana is less inclined to keep the ball if those opportunities fail to arise. He exhibits similar “make things happen” tendencies to Bruno Fernandes where his overambitious passing can lead him to lose possession. While he can get back and attempt to regain the ball, he is best paired with a more defensively-minded player.
  • The Frenchman’s inclination to get his team moving means he’s a good catalyst for attacking moves. He can play “the pass before the pass”, chip in with the odd assist, or make a late arrival into the penalty area for an attempt on goal.

Fofana is better suited to being a box-to-box operator than a single-pivot midfielder behind Fernandes and Mainoo. He’s not the most optimised fit for Mainoo now, but he’s of such age and talent that he’d be a boon to United’s squad in years to come.

Those are two obvious selections. Now let’s go off the beaten path…


Let’s look at… Anton Stach

German midfielder Anton Stach had a solid 2023-24 with Hoffenheim.

Here’s your bullet point cheat sheet:

  • Stach is a good tackler (91 out of 99 for ball recoveries) who prefers to hold his position and wait for an opportune moment before sticking a foot in. He’s not a turnover machine to the same degree as Ugarte, but his reliable defensive positioning places less of an onus on him to win the ball back in high volume.
  • Bundesliga viewers are well acquainted with the 25-year-old dropping deep to collect the ball from Hoffenheim’s centre-backs before getting a team move going. Stach is comfortable receiving and passing the ball off either foot, which is also useful for the times he slots into the back line when a full-back wants to get further up the pitch.
  • He’s also a good ball carrier (carry & dribble volume) and while he doesn’t have the eye for a forward pass like Fofana (see progressive passing score), he doesn’t overplay as much.
  • Stach is a scrapper. At 6ft 4in (193cm) and good (but not great) in the air, he’d be a solid bodyguard for Mainoo against physical opponents. The German midfielder also eats up ground well and is able to cover 20-to-30-yard sprints with a handful of strides.

Squint and tilt your head a bit and you’ll see touches of Declan Rice or Nemanja Matic in Stach’s play. He’s not your go-to for the progressive pass from deep, but he does the simple things needed from a defensive midfielder.


Have you heard of… Morten Frendrup?

This 25-year-old midfielder is a good example of a player who looks “average” playing in a mid-table team but might be able to make the leap higher up the table.

Frendrup’s standout traits:

  • He combines physical athleticism with match reading. He’s similar to Stach or United’s Toby Collyer in his ability to quickly cover large amounts of space (see scores for ball recoveries and defending intensity).
  • Frendrup’s head is constantly on a swivel when out of possession. He can sense when to hold his position or when to push high to try to regain possession.
  • Something that is not easily shown in the above pizza chart is his press resistance. He can wrong-foot bigger, more aggressive defenders when navigating traffic. Once he gets his head up, his inclination is to carry it for a short distance or to make a sidefooted pass.
  • The accuracy of these attempts to progress the ball can be sketchy. Frendrup is a good ball carrier over five to 10 yards, but he’s not a ball carrier to the degree Mainoo is. His passing in the middle third is good (link-up play) but can get erratic the closer he gets to the opposition’s goal. Part of that is due to Genoa’s relative dearth of great attackers. Part of that is due to Frendrup being the most one-footed player on our shortlist. If he can’t make a sidefooted pass with his right foot, he will not try anything else.
  • Don’t be put off by his low metrics in the attacking numbers; Frendrup earned five assists last season and is fond of a cutback from the right. There’s a better attacking player within Frendrup waiting to be honed.

Frendrup looks “good enough” for a team that didn’t have many outstanding talents in 2023-24. There’s enough promise in his game to suggest he could step up another level.  He’s the sort of player you can imagine Brighton purchasing (had they not bought Mats Wieffer — who would have slotted in next to Mainoo nicely).


If you’re looking for a cheaper option, how about… Daniel Boloca?

Another midfielder from Serie A’s bottom half, Sassuolo’s Daniel Boloca looks promising on the statistical charts and a lot of fun when you focus on him for a 90-minute game.

What you need to know:

  • Boloca is the least “see ball, win ball” player on our shortlist, but he has a good sense of standing in the right place at the right time to cut off dangerous passing options.
  • He’s a delight to watch when dribbling. Boloca is similar to Mainoo in that they’re both “touch typists”, able to move elegantly and feel for open spaces without undue effort.
  • Sassuolo’s deficiencies (they were relegated from Serie A last season) meant a lot of Boloca’s best passes had trouble sticking to their targets. As the season went on, Boloca often took it upon himself to carry the ball between the penalty areas to make things happen.

Take Marco Verratti, stretch him to 6ft 2in (188cm), and you have a reasonable idea of the player Boloca could one day become (including his propensity to rack up yellow cards — he was booked six times in 30 league matches last season).

Boloca will need a move to fulfil his potential. A former Juventus academy product, his last non-Italian footballing experience came in 2017 for Slovak team Tatran Presov. The club that can convince him to leave Italian football could be onto something special.


Where does this leave us?

Finding a proper midfield partner for Mainoo is a stretchy goal. The academy graduate has said he does not mind where he is asked to play for United and has shown potential as both a No 6 defensive midfielder and a box-to-box operator. The need to play Fernandes as the No 10 to maximise the captain’s effectiveness complicates things.

Without an outstanding, affordable candidate this summer, United might be best off signing a physically dominant ball-winner while waiting for Mainoo’s skills to develop. Full-backs Luke Shaw and Diogo Dalot could contribute with progressive passing and Collyer’s pre-season form gives Ten Hag a further option.

Matching with Mainoo is a tricky task, but there are options that can help United in the immediate seasons to come.

(Top photos: Getty Images)

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