Retailers eye big sales as holiday shopping season begins

Santa is going to need a bigger sleigh this year, as consumers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on holiday purchases.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), the world’s largest retail trade group, predicts shoppers will devote $98.2 million to holiday purchases, up 2.5%-3.5% from 2023. Deloitte’s forecast is even merrier, with consumers spending an average of $1,778, 8% more than last year. A significant part of that increase will come from shoppers with incomes of $100,000-$199,000.

Black Friday, the traditional start for holiday shopping, remains the most popular day to spend holiday dollars, with 72%, or 131.7 million people, planning to make purchases. About two-thirds of Black Friday shoppers expect to patronize brick-and-mortar stores, with 28% saying shopping the day after Thanksgiving is an enjoyable event they look forward to each year.

Cyber Monday is the second most popular day, attracting 39%, or 72.3 million shoppers.

“This year will be a record level of spending,” Matthew Shay, NRF CEO, said in a conference call with the media. “The economy has been in a good place this year, operating with solid footing, and the consumer economy and the retail industry certainly continue to benefit from that strength.”

Shay attributes consumer confidence to a robust jobs market, wage growth, and softening inflation.

Still, there’s an uptick in credit card delinquency to 9.1%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank. Consumers are increasingly turning to plastic, lured in part by Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) programs, which allow shoppers to space purchases in four payments over time. This year, 85.1% of consumers expect to use credit cards to make holiday purchases, according to Coresight Research.

According to Salesforce research, 37% of consumers said they turning to plastic more than last year, with 32% using BNPL plans; 43% are simply carrying more monthly debt. That’s driving up the collective level of indebtedness. Total credit card balances increased to $1 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, from a low of less than $750 billion in 2021 when consumer saving was fueled by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Some consumers are making their credit cards work for them. A survey by shopping app Smarty says 80% of consumers will advantage of cash-back offers when making holiday purchases. Younger consumers are responding to loyalty programs that offer exclusive access and discounts, with 78% of Gen Z shoppers and 79% of Millennials saying perks impact where they shop and how they pay for purchases, according to a survey by Forter, an e-commerce tech company.

Shoppers who do their homework will find big bargains. Amazon is offering a 40-inch LED display TV that includes Fire TV OS built-in technology that allows viewers to stream without a separate streaming stick. Consumers also can instruct their Alexa virtual assistants to control the TV. No need for a remote control. The price tag: $150.

One of Walmart’s big promos is Cate & Chloe Lydia18k white gold hoop earrings with Swarovski crystals, regularly $134, deep discounted to $17.99. Old Navy crop tops are $1.97, reduced from $12.99. Best Buy is offering $200 off on select KitchenAid stand mixers and $130 on select Sony headphones.

Best Buy also has a deal on the trendy Oura Ring Gen3 Horizon, a sleek health-tracker ring that uses sensors to monitor more than 20 biometrics, including heart rate, stress, and sleep statistics, in addition to reporting on workouts. With $200 off, Oura now sells for $350. An added bonus: it frees your wrist to wear an upscale non-smart watch.

Discounter TJX, the parent company of off-price retailers TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, reported a 6% rise in third-quarter sales from the same period last year. Younger consumers are leading the charge as they look for ways to trim expenses.

Jan Jessup of Wilmington is looking for unique gifts, treats, and fun experiences that will create fond memories.

“I shop all year round on my travels, whenever I see something that reminds me of a friend or family member,” she says. “I do little to no online shopping. I also try to support local brick-and-mortar retailers. Friends and I also gift special experiences to one another, gifts like concert tickets to the Metropolitan Opera in New York, or local or regional theater.”

Jessup sometimes creates one-of-a-kind homemade gifts, such as bacon jam, seasoning rubs, or dry buttermilk pancake mix, “with the recipe.”

Dorothy Keller enjoys shopping at Boscov’s at Concord Mall and Christiana. She says she can find bargains at lots of retailers, but she shops at Boscov’s for the friendly salespeople and gift-wrapping service.

“The people are so nice and helpful, it puts me in the Christmas spirit,” she says.

This year, 76% of shoppers plan to make at least half of their holiday purchases online, according to a Bain & Company survey, with e-commerce expected to hit a record $240.8 billion.

One consumer who will be letting his fingers do the walking—and save him time—is Brian Ferreira of North Wilmington. “I’m shopping from the convenience of wherever my iPhone and iPad are located,” he says.

At Christiana Mall, merchants have been ringing up holiday sales for weeks, says Steve Chambliss, general manager at the regional retail powerhouse. Foot traffic is highest on weekends.

“That’s when many families come out, do some shopping, and then have dinner or go to the movies,” he says.

This year, the mall has nine new concepts for shoppers to sample, from Uniqlo, a Japanese-owned family clothier, to Carhartt, “workwear that’s now fashion,” to Splash, a purveyor of bath bomb, lotions, and other skin products. Holiday pop-up stores and carts have been booked for months.

“We’ve been out of leasing space since the end of August,” Chambliss says.

Don’t see sweaters in your grandfather’s size in the department store? Is the boutique sold out of pajamas in your aunt’s favorite color? Never fear. The merchant will make certain you get what you want.

“You can order online and pick it up here. Or you can order it in the store and have it delivered to your home,” he says.