The World Series is over, and that can mean only one thing: it’s time to get mandible deep in reckless speculation.
For those who haven’t paid attention to this offseason’s run-up: Juan Soto, the 26-year-old outfielder on a Hall of Fame trajectory, is unanimously considered to be the best free agent on the market. Soto offers a rare combo of youth and elite production, making him the kind of player any team would be glad to build around. Here’s more, courtesy of our top-25 free-agent rankings:
For the second offseason in a row, these rankings are topped by a future Hall of Famer. Soto is, plainly, one of the five best hitters in the world. He pairs elite plate discipline with elite strength and elite barrel awareness; that triumvirate empowered him to become the first left-handed hitter in nearly two decades to record consecutive seasons in which he recorded at least 35 home runs and walked more than he struck out. How’s this for consistency: Soto has been an everyday big-league player since he was 19 years old, yet he’s never finished a season (no matter his amount of games played) with an OPS+ below 140. The dangdest thing about Soto is that, for as accomplished as he is, next season will represent his age-26 campaign. (To put that into perspective, Yankees catcher Austin Wells just finished his first full big-league season following a reasonably paced development path … and he’s only 260 days younger than Soto.) Nitpick Soto’s defense and question how long he’ll avoid the DH role if you want. Eventually, you must concede that players this skilled, this accomplished, and this young seldom reach free agency. Expect him to get paid in accordance to that reality.
So, just where might Soto wind up next? Below, we here at CBS Sports have ranked all 30 teams in ascending order of their perceived chances of signing Soto this offseason. If you promise to keep in mind that this is more of an art than a science, then we see no reason to delay any longer.
Let’s get to the reason you clicked.
Tier 1: Zero chance
30. Athletics
29. Miami Marlins
28. Chicago White Sox
27. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Pittsburgh Pirates
25. Colorado Rockies
24. Los Angeles Angels
These teams either 1) aren’t going to spend what it takes to land Soto; 2) aren’t going to be competitive enough for him to consider taking less money to go there; or 3) both. We suppose the Rays might make an offer if only for giggles, the way they did a few winters back with Freddie Freeman, but realistically there’s no chance he winds up there.
Tier 2: Zero chance, but with a better core
23. Cincinnati Reds
22. Minnesota Twins
21. Detroit Tigers
20. Kansas City Royals
19. Milwaukee Brewers
18. Cleveland Guardians
17. St. Louis Cardinals
This is a continuation of the first tier, except the quality of teams is much higher here. The Guardians, Brewers, Royals, and Tigers all made the postseason; and the Twins, Cardinals, and Reds figure to be competitive again in 2025. They’ll have to figure out a way to do that without Soto, because we can’t picture him signing with these teams.
Tier 3: Seeing is believing
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Houston Astros
14. Texas Rangers
13. Seattle Mariners
12. Baltimore Orioles
11. Chicago Cubs
We’re getting warmer. Here we have some teams who would make for fun landing spots, but who we just don’t see going the distance. The Astros have to worry about retaining Alex Bregman; the Mariners have shown little inclination to swim in the deep end of the pool; the Orioles should spend a lot more than they have, but there’s a wide gap between that and meeting Soto’s demands; and so on. If you told us one or two of these teams made a real effort, we wouldn’t be totally shocked. We just don’t think it’s something fans of those clubs should be counting on entering the offseason.
Tier 4: There’s a catch
10. Atlanta Braves
The Braves’ gamble on Jarred Kelenic didn’t pay off, with his OPS dropping around 70 points year to year. We have to believe they’ll reenter the outfield market looking for an upgrade in left. Soto would certainly fit the billing. At the same time, general manager Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t done a ton of shopping at the top of the free-agent market. He might prefer to address his needs through trade or a lower-tier addition.
9. San Diego Padres
As with the Dodgers, you can never count out the Padres from making a splash, either. San Diego couldn’t reach an agreement with Soto during the year and a half they employed him. We’re skeptical they’ll be the top bidder now.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
If you squint, you can see the pathway for the Phillies. They have a number of well-compensated players who are nearing the end of their deals (including J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos); they have an aging core that still hasn’t been able to get over the top and win a World Series; and they have an obvious appetite for shopping at the tip-top of the market. That doesn’t mean the Phillies will actually make a serious run at Soto, mind you, but if you really, really think it through, the possibility is a lot more logical than it may appear at first blush.
7. Boston Red Sox
This is probably overrating the Red Sox, but they should be a team mentioned alongside the top free agents. Keep in mind, they not only have an impressive incoming wave of young talent (including Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell), but they have oodles of financial flexibility. The Red Sox were linked to Shohei Ohtani for a time last offseason, and while they weren’t a finalist or anything, there’s zero reason for them to shy away from yet another attempt at landing a generational free agent.
Tier 5: The top six
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
We suppose you can never fully count out the Dodgers from making a run at a superstar. Still, could Los Angeles really land Soto with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Tyler Glasnow all on the books through at least 2027? The Dodgers are also invariably linked to Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, though it’s unclear if he’s to be posted and, even if he is, his earning potential will be capped.
5. Washington Nationals
The Nationals are similar to the Red Sox in that they too have a promising young core in place and plenty of money to burn. The differences between the sides are that 1) the Nationals have a pre-existing relationship with Soto, and 2) they have a general manager in Mike Rizzo who has proven time and again he’s up for making a bold move. We’re not sure that a Soto reunion is actually in the cards, but it’s fun to think about and we find there to be enough merit to the idea to place them in the top tier.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
It’s easy to forget that the Blue Jays were runners-up on Shohei Ohtani last offseason. That’s what a disappointing year will do for you, we suppose. The Jays haven’t made any long-term commitments during the interim period that would negate their ability to chase Soto. They are about to be a team in transition, however, with shortstop Bo Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both entering their walk years. Some front offices would see that as a reason to go all-in and make one last push with this core. Maybe the Blue Jays push for Soto with a different thought in mind — that he can serve as the foundation for their next core, no matter what happens in 2025?
3. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have tried and failed to land a top-of-market star for most of the past decade. There was Bryce Harper; then Giancarlo Stanton; then Aaron Judge; then Carlos Correa (to be fair, they reached an agreement that was later dashed by medicals); and so on. The Giants now have new management in place, and we have to assume they’ll try to prove they can actually close one of these deals — be it with Soto or else.
2. New York Yankees
1. New York Mets
Surely you knew this was coming. We agonized over which team to put ahead. In the end, we focused on the owners.
On one side, you have, in Steve Cohen, the closest thing there is to a George Steinbrenner proxy in modern baseball. On the other side, you have a literal Steinbrenner heir. But Hal hasn’t always lived up to that surname with respect to his runaway spending.
Soto’s contract, like Ohtani’s before it, could get into strange waters. The Yankees have every reason to sail happily along after the year they had. And yet, we’re not convinced that they’ll abandon reason as quickly or wholly as the Mets and Cohen, putting them at a disadvantage.
Perhaps that’s a misread of the situation, and perhaps this plays out like the Judge sweepstakes a few winters back, when the Yankees get their guy late. We’ll find out soon enough.
As it stands, though, we suspect that the Mets will do whatever it takes to land Soto — and, as a result, that they should be considered the favorites until that assertion is proven false.