Leaving Hawaii is always a buzz-kill, but the field at this week’s American Express makes the proverbial pill easier to swallow. Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris and Rickie Fowler are just some of the names on the tee sheet. Xander Schauffle, the second-ranked player in the world, withdrew from the event on Tuesday.
We have a three-course rotation on deck with PGA West’s Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club used over the first three days before the final round is played at the Stadium Course. The cut won’t be made until Saturday afternoon.
Another birdie fest is on the horizon, so if you’re looking for carnage, this isn’t the tournament for you. Last year, then-amateur Nick Dunlap won at 29 under.
Sunday’s winner will go home with $1.584 million of the $8.8 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points.
Now, let’s pick a winner.
American Express: Golf course
Pete Dye Stadium Course | Par 72 | 7,210 yards
American Express: Course history
American Express: Odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
| Sungjae Im | +1200 | Justin Thomas | +1200 |
| Sam Burns | +1400 | Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Tony Finau | +2200 | Tom Kim | +3000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +3300 | Kurt Kitayama | +3500 |
| Max Greyserman | +3500 | Si Woo Kim | +3500 |
| Harry Hall | +4000 | Davis Thompson | +4000 |
| Cameron Young | +4000 | Nick Dunlap | +5000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +5000 | Will Zalatoris | +5500 |
| Brian Harman | +5500 | Patrick Fishburn | +5500 |
| Eric Cole | +5500 | Ben Griffin | +6000 |
American Express: Picks to win
Sam Burns
Odds: 14/1
Analysis: After opening The Sentry with a 1-under 72, Burns caught fire and posted rounds of 66-66-65 to end the week in a tie for eighth. Outside of a missed cut in 2021, Burns has loved the AmEx: T-18 in 2019, T-6 in 2020, T-11 in 2023 and T-6 last season. Without Scottie Scheffler and Schauffele in the field, Burns has a great opportunity to grab his sixth Tour win.
Max Greyserman
Odds: 35/1
Analysis: I’ve been chasing a Greyserman win for the last six months and to be honest, I can’t help myself. The Duke product tied for 24th at The Sentry to open 2025, with a final-round 1-under 72 ruining his chances of signing for a top-20 effort. At last year’s American Express, Greyserman opened 67-68-66 before a Sunday 73 sent him down the board. He ended the week tied for 56th. Let’s hope he can leave the Sunday Scaries behind him in the California desert.
J.T. Poston
Odds: 60/1
Analysis: Poston missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open, but I’m not too worried about that. He shot a 67 in round one, but couldn’t get much going on Friday and signed for a 1-over 71, missing the weekend by a shot. Over the last three years, Poston has finished T-11 (2024), T-6 (2023) and T-25 (2022) at the American Express. In 2019, he tied for seventh.
Alex Smalley
Odds: 100/1
Analysis: Smalley made his first start of the year at last week’s Sony Open, and he had a solid four days. Thanks to rounds of 68-64-69-68, the 28-year-old finished in a tie for 16th. Smalley has made three starts at the American Express and hasn’t finished outside the top 25: T-25 (2022), T-22 (2023) and T-21 (2024). If you’re not loving the 100/1 number, Smalley is +280 for a top 20.