She is set to make her first public appearance with her running mate on Tuesday.
From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George HW Bush, Allan Lichtman, known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US Presidential Polls has correctly predicted crucial poll contests in the country. Now, the expert has voiced who should be Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ running mate, as per a report in Newsweek.
“I don’t think a VP pick turns the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important,” Mr Lichtman said during a YouTube livestream. “I think all of the names that have been vetted are qualified. In my view, it’s come down to two,” he added.
Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania were then recognized as favourable choices by the historian, who has accurately predicted the results of nine of the last ten elections.
Speaking to the outlet, Mr Lichtman said Mr Shapiro was a “good choice” as he was “eminently qualified”. “(He is) popular in an important region of the country, overall popular, and eminently qualified. The most important thing is, will you trust this person to become president if, God forbid, that happens. And of course, that has happened fairly often in American history,” he told Newsweek. Notably, nine vice presidents have become presidents after US presidents passed away or resigned.
Mr Lichtman continued, “Picking someone from a given state is no guarantee you’re going to win that state, but if you want to reach out to any particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election.”
Allan Lichtman added that Ms Harris should pick a candidate who could help her win a region as big as Pennsylvania because it has 19 Electoral College votes. Since Harry Truman in 1948, no Democratic contender has won the election without the Keystone State. “Of all the swing states, it has the most electoral votes, and Democrats really can’t win without winning Pennsylvania. I’m not saying picking Josh Shapiro is going to win Pennsylvania. There’s no evidence to that effect, but if her objective is to try to pick someone who could help you to win a state, you would want to pick Pennsylvania,” he added.
Notably, Mr Lichtman currently prefers Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump. He expressed his opinion to News Nation, saying that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
He predicted that Democrats presently hold six of the 13 keys. A main competition, a short- and long-term economy, policy changes, the absence of controversy, and the charisma of a challenger are some of these.
“Right now, Democrats have lost three keys” by switching to Harris, he told News Nation.
The expert claimed that the Democrats’ significant defeat in the 2022 midterm elections cost them the “party mandate”. He added that Ms Harris no longer had the “incumbency” and “charisma” keys.
However, in order for him to forecast a Harris defeat, Democrats would need to lose three additional seats according to his prediction model. However, he says that is unlikely to occur.
The historian will make the official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.