NFL Week 9: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions

Many view the NFL regular season as short because there are only 17 games, but the current standings say it’s more of a marathon than a sprint.

The Arizona Cardinals lead the NFC West to start November. Not many saw that coming in a division with the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks, who started the season 3–0. The Cardinals will need to get by the Chicago Bears in Week 9 to continue leading the division.

As for another strange but true observation, the Denver Broncos are the fifth seed in the AFC playoff standings, one spot ahead of the Baltimore Ravens. 

Just last week many viewed the Ravens as the one contender who can keep pace with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, but they’re now trailing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North standings because of the costly upset loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. On Sunday, the Ravens host the Broncos, who have won five of their past six games after an 0–2 start. 

There’s nothing surprising about the Detroit Lions’ 6–1 start, but they could lose their first-place status if they fall to the Green Bay Packers, who would control the NFC North with a win Sunday.

The NFL standings could look very different after Week 9 with those three aforementioned games. We’re also keeping tabs on Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts, because the team benched Anthony Richardson ahead of  Sunday night’s showdown against the Minnesota Vikings. As for another intriguing game, the Dallas Cowboys will aim to get their season back on track when they face the Atlanta Falcons, the first place team in the NFC South. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of Week 9, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.  

Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks

Sunday

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Falcons -2.5 (over/under: 51.5)

Matchup to watch: Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs vs. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts. Last week, Diggs wasn’t happy with a reporter who criticized him about how he defended a lengthy reception from George Kittle. Diggs can prove the reporter wrong by containing Pitts, who had a dominant performance in last week’s win against the Buccaneers, recording four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns. —Manzano 

Key stat: Dak Prescott likes to take his shots downfield. Through eight weeks, Prescott averages 8.3 intended air yards per pass, seventh-highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s defense has permitted 962 air yards, 11th-most in the league. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Kirk Cousins has been inconsistent this season, but he is coming off a 28.6-point performance in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also has a great matchup in Week 9, facing a bad Cowboys defense. Dallas has allowed four different quarterbacks to beat them for 21-plus points, including 26 from Brock Purdy last week. —Fabiano

Best bet: Cowboys +2.5. The Cowboys have gotten off to a disastrous start to their season, but this could be a spot where they pull an upset. The Falcons defense has a ton of issues, ranking 23rd in opponent EPA per play and 26th in opponent success rate. They also rank 30th in opponent third down conversion rate. The Cowboys have too talented a roster to be playing this poorly and a matchup against a bad Atlanta defense is a perfect spot for a bounce-back performance.  —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I’m picking the Falcons until the Cowboys prove they’re able to handle a team on an upward trajectory. Atlanta’s defense has holes, but I would imagine Cousins can pick apart a defensive coordinator he knows intimately. Cousins and Mike Zimmer spent many a long hour together and both are likely familiar with each other’s tendencies. —Orr

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Ravens -9.5 (over/under: 41.5)

Matchup to watch: Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Ravens WR Zay Flowers. Surtain recorded an interception against the Carolina Panthers during his return to the field last week after missing the prior game because of a concussion. Surtain might see tougher competition against the Ravens’ wide receivers, who gained Diontae Johnson in a trade this week. Expect Surtain to shadow Flowers, who recorded seven catches for 117 yards against the Browns in Week 8. —Manzano

Key stat: This game is going to hinge on weakness against weakness. The Broncos rank tied for 24th in net yards per pass attempt (5.4) while the Ravens allow 291.4 passing yards per game, most in the NFL. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Javonte Wiliams was a massive disappointment last week, scoring 9.2 fantasy points despite a terrific matchup against the Panthers. I’d keep him on the sideline against the Ravens, who haven’t allowed a single running back to rush for more than 52 yards. What’s more, enemy backs have averaged 3.2 yards per rush against Baltimore. I’d avoid Williams. —Fabiano

Best bet: Broncos +9.5. The Ravens secondary is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt while ranking 28th in opponent dropback EPA. Their only hope to cover big spreads this season is for their offense to score 40-plus points. If their offense has a subpar performance, they’ll not only fail to cover a big spread but may lose games to inferior opponents like they did last week. Now, they have to face arguably the best defense in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent yards per play, giving up just 4.4 yards per snap. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Ravens. I love the Broncos with points here, but if we’re going straight up, this is a good bounce-back game for a Ravens team that matches up well against Vance Joseph’s defense. The Broncos have lost three of four against teams that have compiled 100 rushing yards or more. —Orr

When/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Cardinals -1.5 (over/under: 44.5)

Matchup to watch: Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson. Harrison had his best game of his young career after igniting the Cardinals’ rally against the Dolphins last week, recording six catches for 111 yards and one touchdown. Harrison displayed improvements with his routes, flashed his sizable catch radius and beat Jalen Ramsey in coverage multiple times. Now the rookie wideout will face another standout cornerback in Johnson, who has two interceptions this season. —Manzano

Key stat: Look for the Cardinals to run the ball against the Bears. Arizona is tied for second, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, while Chicago’s defense ranks tied for 22nd in the same metric at 4.7 YPC against. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: D’Andre Swift has been red hot over his past four games, scoring at least 18.9 points and averaging 22.6 points. He should continue to find success this week, too, as Swift faces a Cardinals unit that has allowed seven running backs to score 15-plus points against them. Runners have also averaged nearly five yards per attempt vs. Arizona as well. —Fabiano

Best bet: Bears -104. The Bears’ defense is going to prove to be a tough challenge for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense. They rank second in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA and sixth in opponent dropback success rate. If the Cardinals can’t solve Chicago’s defense, they’re going to struggle to get the win because they won’t get any help from their own defense. The Cardinals have a bottom-five defense in the league, including ranking dead last in opponent success rate. As long as the Bears’ offense doesn’t post a dud two weeks in a row, they’ll be in a great spot to win this game. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Cardinals. The Cardinals are electric when rolling and we saw last week what can happen if they seize on a bit of momentum. Chicago is going to have to deal with the fallout of a stunning Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders where many of their procedural flaws were laid bare. —Orr

When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Lions -3.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. Lions’ defensive front. Green Bay will likely lean on Jacobs heavily with Malik Willis expected to start in place of the injured Jordan Love. Jacobs is in the midst of a productive first season with the Packers, recording 667 rushing yards and three touchdowns in eight games this season. Jacobs has a tough matchup against the Lions’ defense, which is allowing 101.9 rushing yards per game, fifth best in the league. —Manzano

Key stat: The Lions have been excellent once getting inside the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 65.5% of their drives to rank seventh. Green Bay, however, is tied for 25th at just 50% efficiency. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Tucker Kraft has been a fantasy star in the past five weeks, scoring 12-plus points four times, including three games with 16-plus points. So, while that makes it tough to bench him, I might temper expectations against the Lions. The defense has allowed just one tight end to beat them for more than 8.7 points, and no tight end has scored more than 10.7. —Fabiano

Best bet: Lions -3. The Lions’ defense has always been their weakness, but there are signs that they have turned that weakness into a strength. In fact, they lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play dating back to Week 5 and they lead by a significant margin. If they can continue playing well, there are few teams who can compete with them. Green Bay may be in over its head in this one. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Lions. Whether Jordan Love is fully healthy, I think we need to acknowledge that he can still be quite erratic at times and often leans into his most Favre-ian tendencies. Against the Lions this makes the margin for error slim. I’m not counting out an absolute Love heater, but the Lions are the safer play. —Orr

When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Spread: Vikings -5.5 (over/under: 46.5)

Matchup to watch: Colts QB Joe Flacco vs. Vikings’ secondary. Indianapolis turned to Flacco after benching Anthony Richardson this week. Flacco had the passing game humming during his two starts earlier this season, including throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars in Week 6. The Vikings’ secondary is in need of a bounce-back performance after getting torched by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp last week. —Manzano

Key stat: Indianapolis has been middle of the pack when it comes to generating a pass rush, checking in 17th in pressure rate (21.3%). However, the Vikings have struggled to protect Sam Darnold, ranking second-worst in sack rate against (10.4%). Without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, that issue looms even larger. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Darnold has scored 18-plus points in four of his past six games, and a matchup against the Colts makes him a nice option. Their defense has allowed four quarterbacks to beat them for more than 17 points, including two signal-callers with 20-plus points since Week 4. In what could end up being a high-scoring game, Darnold is a start ’em. —Fabiano

Best bet: Vikings -5.5. The Colts benched Richardson in favor of Flacco, but that’s not going to scare me away from betting on Minnesota. The Vikings’ ability to stop the run (83.9 yards per game) is going to nullify the Colts’ best weapon, Jonathan Taylor. If Indianapolis can’t get its running game going, it will run out of options to keep pace with Minnesota. This is a huge bounce-back spot for the Vikings, who are coming off two consecutive losses. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Vikings. Flacco is not a salve for this Colts offense, which lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars when he started earlier this year. The Vikings have punished very good quarterbacks and, part of the reason you sit Anthony Richardson here may be to steer him clear of a defense firing on all cylinders. —Orr

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