It has never been more important for an NFL team to nail down the No. 1 seed in its conference. The two No. 1’s are the only teams that get a first-round bye in the playoffs, while every other playoff team must battle it out to make it to the next week.
There’s an interesting situation brewing atop of the NFC right now. Three teams — the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings — could end the season with identical records. Right now, all three of those teams are 12-2 with three games left to play. If they all win the same number of games over the next three weeks, how will the NFL determine who gets the bye?
First, let’s review the league’s tiebreaking procedures.
How the NFL breaks ties
The NFL has several criteria in place to break ties. It begins with the teams’ records in games against each other and continues through various scenarios. If the tie still hasn’t been broken after the penultimate category, the final step is a coin toss.
Here are the steps to break a tie in the NFL between teams from different divisions (divisional ties are determined with the additional step of divisional record between steps 1 and 2):
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Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
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Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
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Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
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Strength of victory in all games.
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Strength of schedule in all games.
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Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best net points in conference games.
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Best net points in all games.
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Best net touchdowns in all games.
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Coin toss
The NFC North factor
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-29 in their first meeting of the season on Oct. 20, so they have the edge going into the teams’ second matchup in Week 18 on Jan. 5. The Vikings have that single divisional loss, while the Lions have zero, but both teams also play one other divisional game — the Lions play the Bears in Week 16, and the Vikings play the Packers in Week 17. It could very likely all come down to that final game.
If the season ended today…
The tiebreaker would be between the Lions and Eagles. Because they did not play each other this season and aren’t in the same division, we go to conference record. As of Dec. 17, the Eagles have two conference losses (Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), while the Lions have one conference loss (Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), as their Week 15 loss was to the AFC North’s Buffalo Bills.
If the season ended right now, those conference losses would determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And the Lions would own the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Vikings, making them the No. 1 seed.
Looking ahead, if the Lions win out, they’re the No. 1 seed. If both the Eagles and Vikings win out, the Vikings would likely own the tiebreaker due to strength of victory, per the Detroit Free Press.