NFL contenders and pretenders: Sorting which current playoff teams are legitimate threats to win Super Bowl

We have just crossed the halfway point of the 2024 NFL regular season. It’s gone by quickly, hasn’t it? The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t lost a game since Christmas, the Washington Commanders are rolling thanks to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Arizona Cardinals lead the NFC West with a 5-4 record. But who is for real, and who isn’t? Which teams are contenders, and which are pretenders? That’s what we’re here to discuss.

Below, we will break down the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL using the 14 teams that would make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. Let’s start with the teams we believe are legitimate threats to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. 

Contenders

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)

Yes, the reigning NFL champions are legitimate contenders. Patrick Mahomes and Co. aren’t blowing out their opponents, but you can’t argue with the undefeated record. Kansas City was also winners at the trade deadline, scooping up wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and pass rusher Josh Uche. 

Detroit Lions (7-1)

If it’s not the Chiefs, the Lions are the best team in the NFL. Jared Goff has completed 82.8% of his passes with a 140.1 passer rating over this six-game win streak, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 30 straight targets. Then there’s David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who make up the best running back duo in the NFL. This defense is certainly not the most formidable unit in the league, but the offense can outscore anyone. The Lions are averaging an NFL-best 32.3 points per game. 

Buffalo Bills (7-2)

Remember when we thought the Bills were poised to take a massive step backward? Well, they have a four-game lead in the division, and Josh Allen has scored 20 total touchdowns compared to two interceptions thrown. The Bills are going to win the AFC East, which gives them a chance in the big dance. The addition of Amari Cooper could be impactful as well. Something that’s stood out about Buffalo is its performance in the second half of games. The Bills have a +74 point differential in the third and fourth quarters, which ranks second-best in the NFL. 

Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Ravens started the season 0-2, but have since gone 6-1. With two legitimate MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens are the first team in NFL history to average 250 passing yards per game and 190 rushing yards per game in a nine-game span. Trade-deadline addition Diontae Johnson can certainly spark this already-lethal offense, but the same probably can’t be said for Baltimore’s trade-deadline addition on the defensive side of the ball. Tre’Davious White has already allowed four touchdowns in coverage this season, which is tied for a career high. The Ravens’ league-worst passing defense is absolutely a reason for concern. 

Washington Commanders (7-2)

Washington as a legitimate contender? It sounds wild, but think about it. The Commanders are probably the second-best team in the NFC right now. It’s in large part thanks to Jayden Daniels, who is the third rookie quarterback to win seven of his team’s first nine games since 1970. He has the highest completion percentage through a player’s first nine career games all time (71.5%), and the fewest turnovers (2) in a player’s first nine career starts since at least 1991.

The Commanders also have the third-best rushing offense through nine weeks, and the defense is feisty. That unit also just added cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline, because general manager Adam Peters knows the “window” is open.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

The Eagles may have to overcome Nick Sirianni’s decision-making to be legitimate contenders, but this Eagles team is 4-0 following its bye. Jalen Hurts has 12 total touchdowns and zero turnovers during this win streak, while Saquon Barkley is jumping over people backward and is one of two players to cross 900 rushing yards so far. The Eagles defense has also been great since the bye. The unit leads the league in yards per game allowed (214.5), yards per play (4.0) and sacks (16) since Week 6. 

Minnesota Vikings (6-2)

After winning their first five games of the season, the Vikings have struggled following the bye week. Minnesota lost to the rival Lions and the Los Angeles Rams before sliding past the Indianapolis Colts in a game where they turned the ball over a whopping three times. With Kevin O’Connell’s weaponry and Brian Flores’ defense, I’ll lean toward the Vikings being “contenders.” 

Pretenders

Green Bay Packers (6-3)

It’s tough to place the Packers right now. What is their best victory? I guess the 34-13 win over Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Jordan Love is banged-up and throwing interceptions, and he’s now 0-2 vs. divisional opponents. The Packers still have potential, but you can’t objectively look at them right now and say, “Yeah, that’s a contender.” Green Bay gets the bye to rest up this week, but then takes on the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers in back-to-back weeks before the Miami Dolphins come to town on Thanksgiving.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Russell Wilson is 2-0 as the Steelers’ starter, and is averaging four completions of 25+ yards per game. Justin Fields had 10 such completions in his six starts. Many are singing Mike Tomlin’s praises for his QB decision, and while Wilson has absolutely looked better than his Denver Broncos days, defeating the New York Jets and New York Giants at home in prime time with the backing of arguably the best defense in the NFL doesn’t mean too much to me.

The Steelers will make the playoffs, but I don’t view them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. There are 11 teams with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl over at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Houston Texans (6-3)

The Texans have lost two out of their last three after starting the year 5-1. C.J. Stroud has one touchdown over his last three games after scoring 10 in the first six contests, and may have a legitimate road problem. He’s 10-2 in Houston, and 5-7 everywhere else. Stroud has also thrown 10 fewer touchdowns on the road, and is averaging almost 100 fewer passing yards per game away from Houston. Stefon Diggs is out for the year, Nico Collins is still out and the offensive line just allowed Stroud to be sacked eight times. There’s reason to be concerned about Houston.

Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons will be your NFC South winners by default. Kirk Cousins and Co. have gone 5-1 over their last six, and Bijan Robinson has now crossed 100 scrimmage yards in four straight games. That includes a season-high 145 yards vs. the Dallas Cowboys last week. This squad has a relatively easy schedule down the stretch, but there are four to five teams I like more just in the NFC. 

Arizona Cardinals (5-4)

The current leader in the NFC West! The Cardinals have certainly proved themselves as the most feisty team in the league, but we need to see some consistency. They blew out the shorthanded Rams in Week 2, upset the 49ers in Week 5 and have now won three straight. However, Arizona did get blown out by the Commanders and the Packers. If the defense can build on its Week 9 performance vs. the Bears and Marvin Harrison Jr. can continue to improve, we’ll see. 

Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) 

The Chargers are a very good team, but I doubt Jim Harbaugh can win the College Football Playoff National Championship and then Super Bowl in back-to-back years. L.A. ranks bottom 10 in both total offense and scoring offense, but Jesse Minter’s defense is one of the biggest storylines we aren’t talking about. The Chargers haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season, and rank No. 8 in total defense. However, they don’t have an impressive win just yet. Maybe that was last week against Jameis Winston’s Cleveland Browns.

Denver Broncos (5-4)

I once viewed the Broncos as a surprise playoff team with their tough defense and the continued development of Bo Nix, but Denver hasn’t defeated a team currently above .500, and has the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to Tankathon. The Broncos were throttled by the Ravens last Sunday, and face this Chiefs this upcoming Sunday.