NFL Week 4 picks and predictions: Why you should consider road teams
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for Week 4 games in the NFL.
The final week of the NFL’s September slate has the chance to be its most volatile set of games so far this season.
While the first three weeks of the season have featured several surprises, many of the matchups promoted consensus among prognosticators. This weekend, however, several games have divided USA TODAY Sports’ panel for picks. And while many of the five undefeated teams have experts siding with them, each should be on alert.
With all that in mind, we asked USA TODAY Sports’ staff of NFL writers and columnists for their bold predictions for Week 4. Here are their responses:
Aaron Rodgers will bust the Broncos with his first 300-yard game since 2021
What a time for A-Rod to produce his first 300-yard game as a Jet. Denver’s coming to the Meadowlands and I’d suspect that Rodgers will want to put a little extra mustard on it to prove a point. Remember his reaction last year when Sean Payton pilloried the Jets and Nathaniel Hackett? He called Payton “insecure” and contended that Payton should keep his coordinator’s “name out of his mouth.” Bet he hasn’t forgotten the ridicule.
Rodgers has called Hackett, Payton’s predecessor in Denver, his “favorite” coach, which is undoubtedly why the coordinator landed with the Jets in 2023 for a reunion with the QB to pick it back up after their three years together in Green Bay. Maybe there’s no better way for Rodgers to show that he has Hackett’s back than by putting up a monster, in-your-face performance against Payton and the Broncos.
It’s certainly been a long time since the four-time NFL MVP has cracked 300 yards. You’d have to go back to December 2021 for that, when he torched the Bears for 341 yards and 4 TDs – the last of three consecutive 300-yard games. Since then, Rodgers has played 25 games (including a playoff loss, or 26 if you count the Jets debut last year that went for one series before he suffered a torn Achilles) without striking 300. It was stunning to discover in checking the game-by-game log that Rodgers started all 17 games during his final season with the Packers in 2022 without a 300-yard outing. So, hey, the dude is overdue. And the early-season pattern during his comeback season suggests it, too. In breaking back in, Rodgers has passed for more yards in each successive game – from 167 in the opener at San Francisco, to 176 in Week 2 at Tennessee, to 281 against the Patriots in the home opener a week ago Thursday night. And now come the Broncos. Bet he’s licking his chops.
— Jarrett Bell
At least three unbeaten teams will lose in Week 4
I wish it was bolder, but this weekend sets up as a tough one for the NFL’s quintet of 3-0 clubs. All are on the road with the Buffalo Bills (at Baltimore) and Seattle Seahawks (at Detroit) playing in prime-time slots against teams that reached their respective conference title games last season. The Pittsburgh Steelers may get their toughest test – over the course of 60 minutes anyway – at Indianapolis after overcoming the depleted Chargers last Sunday, and the Minnesota Vikings can hardly ever expect to waltz into Green Bay’s Lambeau Field and raid and pillage – regardless of who’s playing quarterback for the Packers. The Kansas City Chiefs seem like a safe bet to beat those undermanned Bolts – again – and could very well stand as the league’s lone 4-0 squad by the end of Monday night.
— Nate Davis
Jayden Daniels will be NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner after Week 4
Rookie Jayden Daniels was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for Week 3 after he completed 21 of 23 pass attempts (91.3%) for 254 passing yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. He had the highest completion percentage in a game by a rookie in NFL history (minimum 20 attempts) in the victory. He’s just the third rookie quarterback to win the award in the past five seasons.
What will Daniels do for an encore?
I expect Daniels to have a big-time game versus the Cardinals that will make him the early front-runner for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Daniels will be motivated to show out versus Arizona in what will be a homecoming of sorts. The Commanders QB played at Arizona State (2019–2021) before transferring to LSU (2022–2023).
Daniels will have his first 300-yard passing game and he’ll also rush for 50+ yards to help Washington win its third straight game. The Commanders haven’t won three games in a row since the 2022 season.
— Tyler Dragon
A breakout game is incoming for the Steelers offense
Pittsburgh has been an incredibly tough out to start the season, but it has been almost singularly on the back of its defense. This is the game the Steelers offense will figure it out. The unit currently ranks 24th in total offense (289 yards per game), 29th in passing (158.3), 28th in yards per carry (3.63) and 24th in scoring (17 points per game). This, however, is a matchup that should favor the Steelers.
Indianapolis’ defense has been banged up to start the season, and inconsistent production has followed. The Colts are in the middle of the pack in scoring defense, ranking 14th (20.3), but they have ceded huge plays. Indy ranks second to last in total defense (398.3) and rushing defense (179). This is a game in which I expect offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to unleash quarterback Justin Fields and his propensity to effectively run the ball. The Steelers have asked Fields to run less, and his average of 30 rushing yards per game would be a career low and is far below his mark from last year (50.5) and the season before that (76.2).
The converse is that Fields is setting a career best in completion percentage at 73.3%, a jump of 11.9 percentage points from last year. He has become more efficient. But this matchup is begging for him to take over on the ground, further compromising a banged up defense, and opening up the passing game.
— Lorenzo Reyes
Nick Herbig will pass T.J. Watt as the Steelers’ sack leader
Maybe this doesn’t seem that outlandish given Herbig already has two sacks to Watt’s three in the early going. Still, it would have been hard to fathom this offseason that the Steelers could exit September thriving with someone other than Watt or Alex Highsmith leading the way in this category. Herbig stepped in for Highsmith when the staring outside linebacker suffered a groin injury late in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the 2023 fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin delivered two sacks in just 19 snaps. His most impressive rep came when he screamed past standout Chargers left tackle Rashawn Slater on a second-and-10 in the third quarter, forcing a strip sack of Justin Herbert.
Replicating that performance could be tough, as bringing down a 6-4, 244-pound quarterback in Anthony Richardson – who has taken just four sacks in three games – is no easy feat, especially for a 6-2, 240-pound edge rusher like Herbig. But the Steelers’ stout run defense (ranked second with 3.5 yards allowed per carry) seems bound to put the Colts in some obvious passing scenarios, and there’s little question that Indianapolis’ primary objective will be in accounting for Watt, who has been chipped a league-leading 44% of the time, according to Pro Football Focus. Herbig has already established that he’s ready to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself, and that trend could continue Sunday.
— Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz
Josh Allen will rush for more yards than Lamar Jackson
Through the first three games of the season, Josh Allen has not used his legs too much in Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s “everybody-gets-the-ball” scheme (17 rushes, 85 yards). His arm has been more than effective, but a prime-time matchup against the Ravens will force Allen to go deep into his bag of tricks for the Bills to move to 4-0.
The other component of this is that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has never run efficiently, especially by his standards, against the Bills. Jackson’s most yards (73) on the ground in the matchup came in his lone regular-season loss to the Bills, in 2022. He rushed 11 times for 40 yards during a 2019 contest, and in a Week 1 2018 matchup – Jackson’s first career game he entered in a blowout – he had seven attempts for 39 yards.
— Chris Bumbaca