NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Started the year 2-for-2! The Arthur Smith Bowl was a grimy slugfest, as expected. There was only 1 touchdown scored in the game (and it wasn’t by the winning team). The Tyjae Spears pick also played out like we hoped, with Tony Pollard being the clear lead back. Spears was involved in the passing game with 4 targets, but he only had 4 carries.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 1-0
- Prop Picks: 1-0
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers Under 39.5 (-115 on ESPN BET)
I hit the under on the Chargers in Week 1 over at ScoresAndOdds, and I’m going right back to them. They operated exactly as expected, completely changing their offensive philosophy under Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers had a 50% rush rate against Las Vegas, up more than 10% from 2023 (39% rush rate). Their play volume dropped to 54, down more than 10 from 2023 (65.1 plays per game).
The Chargers defense performed well against the Raiders, and they get a dream matchup here. Through one week, it certainly doesn’t look like Dave Canales can fix Bryce Young and this offense. The Panthers were held scoreless until the final play of the 1st half and didn’t get a touchdown on the board until late in the 3rd quarter when they were already down 30+. Young went 13-for-30 with 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Carolina ran for 58 yards on 20 carries.
The Panthers are a disaster on offense, and the Chargers are going to go run-heavy and control the pace. I don’t see these units cracking 40 points.
Malik Willis Under 169.5 Passing Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
This is a low number for an NFL quarterback. Fortunately, Willis is not that. I already bet Indianapolis -3, and I’m also betting this prop. In 3 career starts, Willis has totaled 234 passing yards. He’s 25-for-49 in those games. Willis has never thrown for 100+ yards as a professional. He’s just not an NFL-caliber quarterback.
Indianapolis’ pass defense isn’t anything special, but they performed admirably against C.J. Stroud last week (24-for-32, 234 yards). Green Bay has several talented pass catchers, but so did Houston. This line is still floating in the -3 range, so the books expect the game to remain relatively close. I’m expecting Matt LaFleur to lean heavily into the run game and limit Willis’ passing opportunities as much as possible.
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