Overanalyzing the Rule 5 draft is a proud Winter Meetings tradition.
The entire premise of the Rule 5 is perfect offseason fodder. Minor leaguers become eligible only when they’ve spent significant time in the minors (meaning many have become familiar to prospect followers). There’s a deadline to protect them (which requires adding them to the 40-man roster, meaning an early set of roster moves), and those left unprotected are available to any team with an open spot on its roster (which means the potential for big league impact right away).
It’s fun and juicy.
And the impact is usually minimal.
This year’s Rule 5 pick will be today at 1 p.m. CT. For young players, it opens a door of opportunity. For teams, it’s a way to add young talent. There have been some notable Rule 5 picks — Anthony Santander, one of this winter’s best free agents, was a Rule 5 pick in 2016 — but most picks are mostly forgotten to time.
The Athletics got a decent starter out of the Rule 5 last year (Mitch Spence), the Cardinals and Red Sox each got a middle-inning reliever (Ryan Fernandez, Justin Slaten), and the Nationals got a utility man (Nasim Nunez). The Padres and Royals each held onto guys who struggled (Stephen Kolek, Anthony Molina).