New Orders Growing and Backlogs Contracting; Production and Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting
TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 2, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, registering 48.7 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 52 percent recorded in October. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 48.1 percent, up 5.5 percentage points compared to October’s reading of 42.6 percent.
“The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.7 percent is 3.2 percentage points higher than the 45.5 percent registered in October. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory in November, registering 47.6 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than October’s reading of 48.3 percent.”
Fiore continues, “U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in November, but at a slower rate compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak but may be moderating, output declined again, and inputs stayed accommodative. Positive signs for demand include the (1) New Orders Index returning to expansion territory, (2) New Export Orders Index increasing moderately (up 3.2 percentage points but still in contraction territory), (3) Backlog of Orders Index dipping further into strong contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index indicating levels were only marginally above ‘too low.’ (For more, see the Customers’ Inventories Index summary section.) Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction: Employment shrunk, but at a much slower rate, and production took a small step in the right direction. Foundational industries like Chemical Products and Fabricated Metal Products (that provide products and components across the manufacturing sector) continued to show weakness, indicating that recovery may still be two to three months away. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventories improving and suppliers continuing to improve delivery performance.
“Demand remains weak, as companies prepare plans for 2025 with the benefit of the election cycle ending. Production execution eased in November, consistent with demand sluggishness and weak backlogs. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving but some product shortages reappearing. Sixty-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in November, up from 63 percent in October. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 48 percent in November, a 2-percentage point increase compared to the 46 percent reported in October. Two of the six largest manufacturing industries — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in November, the same number of industries as in October,” says Fiore.
The three manufacturing industries reporting growth in November are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 11 industries reporting contraction in November — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Primary Metals.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
- “High mortgage rates continue to hamper demand for new housing construction, which is a key market for adhesives and sealants.” [Chemical Products]
- “Business remains slow. We anticipate that the first half of 2025 will be similar and hope that demand increases in the second half of 2025.” [Transportation Equipment]
- “Inflation, even after easing, continues to impact demand. Consumers are looking for value, and purchasing behaviors are changing as many shoppers reduce consumption, causing softer volume.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- “Backlog is rising precipitously after 18 months of troughing. The long-awaited pent-up buying has started. Competition for qualified technical labor is a constraint on operational throughput.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
- “A general construction slowdown in the fourth quarter has created a surplus of finished goods, creating the need for an extra two weeks of shutdown over the Christmas holiday period. We are carefully watching demand in the first quarter to determine if more permanent workforce reductions will be necessary.” [Machinery]
- “Business is slowing as customers destock and appear uncertain about near-term demand. Preliminary forecast for 2025 is down significantly; we hope to see improvements now that we are beyond U.S. election uncertainties.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
- “Our supplier has a positive outlook on the U.S. economy going into 2025. Our business is seeing an uptick in sales forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 versus the fourth quarter of 2024. Overall, our outlook for 2025 is optimistic.” [Textile Mills]
- “We’re finally seeing traction in the last few weeks (with) a higher volume of orders. Backlog is starting to grow.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
- “Late to the game, we are now working on our buying plan in light of potential increased tariffs on imports from China. Cost and capacity of U.S. manufacturing is a concern; a lack of relationship with alternate low-cost international manufacturers is another.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
- “After the election, we have seen an uptick in customers wanting to come back to the U.S. for making their products. We are working through these inquiries. They seem very motivated.” [Primary Metals]
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE |
||||||
Index |
Series Nov |
Series Oct |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of |
Trend* |
Manufacturing PMI® |
48.4 |
46.5 |
+1.9 |
Contracting |
Slower |
8 |
New Orders |
50.4 |
47.1 |
+3.3 |
Growing |
From Contracting |
1 |
Production |
46.8 |
46.2 |
+0.6 |
Contracting |
Slower |
6 |
Employment |
48.1 |
44.4 |
+3.7 |
Contracting |
Slower |
6 |
Supplier Deliveries |
48.7 |
52.0 |
-3.3 |
Faster |
From Slower |
1 |
Inventories |
48.1 |
42.6 |
+5.5 |
Contracting |
Slower |
3 |
Customers’ Inventories |
48.4 |
46.8 |
+1.6 |
Too Low |
Slower |
2 |
Prices |
50.3 |
54.8 |
-4.5 |
Increasing |
Slower |
2 |
Backlog of Orders |
41.8 |
42.3 |
-0.5 |
Contracting |
Faster |
26 |
New Export Orders |
48.7 |
45.5 |
+3.2 |
Contracting |
Slower |
6 |
Imports |
47.6 |
48.3 |
-0.7 |
Contracting |
Faster |
6 |
OVERALL ECONOMY |
Growing |
Faster |
55 |
|||
Manufacturing Sector |
Contracting |
Slower |
8 |
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (12); Caustic Soda; Copper (2); Copper Based Products; Electrical Components; and Natural Gas (2).
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum*; Crude Oil; Diesel Fuel; Plastic Resin; Solvents; Steel — Hot Rolled; and Steel Products.
Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (50); Electrical Equipment; Electronic Assemblies; and Electronic Components (8).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
NOVEMBER 2024 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent reported in October. “After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted for the last eight months. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (New Orders) was in expansion territory, the same number of indexes as in October. The Production Index remained in contraction, but the New Orders Index moved into weak expansion in November. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) registered growth,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 55th straight month after last contracting in April 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the November reading (48.4 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month |
Manufacturing |
Month |
Manufacturing |
Nov 2024 |
48.4 |
May 2024 |
48.7 |
Oct 2024 |
46.5 |
Apr 2024 |
49.2 |
Sep 2024 |
47.2 |
Mar 2024 |
50.3 |
Aug 2024 |
47.2 |
Feb 2024 |
47.8 |
Jul 2024 |
46.8 |
Jan 2024 |
49.1 |
Jun 2024 |
48.5 |
Dec 2023 |
47.1 |
Average for 12 months – 48.1 High – 50.3 Low – 46.5 |
New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index expanded in November after seven consecutive months in contraction, registering 50.4 percent, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to October’s figure of 47.1 percent. The New Orders Index hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery) reported increased new orders. Panelists again noted a continued level of uncertainty and concern about a lack of new order activity, with a 1-to-1 ratio of positive comments versus those expressing concern about near-term demand, an improvement compared to October,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in November are: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. The 10 industries reporting a decline in new orders in November — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Primary Metals.
New Orders |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
21.0 |
54.3 |
24.7 |
-3.7 |
50.4 |
Oct 2024 |
20.4 |
50.6 |
29.0 |
-8.6 |
47.1 |
Sep 2024 |
17.6 |
56.1 |
26.3 |
-8.7 |
46.1 |
Aug 2024 |
16.7 |
57.1 |
26.2 |
-9.5 |
44.6 |
Production
The Production Index continued in contraction territory in November, registering 46.8 percent, 0.6 percentage point higher than the October reading of 46.2 percent. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased production. “New order rates expanded only marginally as backlog levels continued to decline, causing manufacturers to reduce output to close the calendar year. As noted in the inventories section, companies are showing signs of willingness to invest in inventory, a marked departure from the last two years of activity,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The six industries reporting growth in production during the month of November — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in November, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.
Production |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
15.9 |
63.2 |
20.9 |
-5.0 |
46.8 |
Oct 2024 |
16.8 |
59.3 |
23.9 |
-7.1 |
46.2 |
Sep 2024 |
17.6 |
60.7 |
21.7 |
-4.1 |
49.8 |
Aug 2024 |
12.6 |
66.2 |
21.2 |
-8.6 |
44.8 |
Employment
ISM®‘s Employment Index registered 48.1 percent in November, 3.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 44.4 percent. “The index contracted for the sixth consecutive month after an expansion in May, which broke a seventh-month streak of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded employment in November. Respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. This sentiment was supported in November by the approximately 1-to-1.5 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments, compared to a 1-to-3 ratio the previous month, meaning less workforce reduction activity,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the three industries reporting employment growth in November are: Wood Products; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in November, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Employment |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
14.2 |
65.3 |
20.5 |
-6.3 |
48.1 |
Oct 2024 |
9.0 |
70.6 |
20.4 |
-11.4 |
44.4 |
Sep 2024 |
8.0 |
69.3 |
22.7 |
-14.7 |
43.9 |
Aug 2024 |
10.0 |
70.9 |
19.1 |
-9.1 |
46.0 |
Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in November, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 48.7 percent, a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 52 percent reported in October. This expansion follows four consecutive months of slower deliveries, preceded by four straight months of faster deliveries. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory the following month and remained there for 20 out of 21 months (with February 2024 as the exception). Of the six big industries, none reported slower supplier deliveries in November. “Supplier deliveries moved into ‘faster’ territory as additional supplier capacity provides material velocity benefits to panelists’ companies,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The three manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; and Furniture & Related Products. The seven industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in November — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in November as compared to October.
Supplier Deliveries |
%Slower |
%Same |
%Faster |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
5.7 |
86.0 |
8.3 |
-2.6 |
48.7 |
Oct 2024 |
11.9 |
80.1 |
8.0 |
+3.9 |
52.0 |
Sep 2024 |
10.4 |
83.6 |
6.0 |
+4.4 |
52.2 |
Aug 2024 |
10.1 |
80.7 |
9.2 |
+0.9 |
50.5 |
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 48.1 percent in November, up a notable 5.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 42.6 percent reported in October. “Manufacturing inventories remain at low-to-moderate levels, as the sector’s contracting economy continues to cause panelists’ companies and their customers to closely manage working capital, including inventories. This month’s index reading indicating a slowing rate of contraction could suggest that companies are now willing to invest more for the future. Of the six big industries, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased manufacturing inventories in November,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the three industries reporting higher inventories in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting lower inventories in November — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
Inventories |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
15.5 |
63.2 |
21.3 |
-5.8 |
48.1 |
Oct 2024 |
14.2 |
59.1 |
26.7 |
-12.5 |
42.6 |
Sep 2024 |
11.2 |
66.5 |
22.3 |
-11.1 |
43.9 |
Aug 2024 |
18.7 |
64.7 |
16.6 |
+2.1 |
50.3 |
Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index registered a reading of 48.4 percent in November, up 1.6 percentage points compared to the 46.8 percent reported in October. “Customers’ inventory levels in November were marginally above ‘too low.’ Panelists are reporting that the amounts of their products in their customers’ inventories suggest a demand level that is neutral for future new orders and production,” says Fiore.
The four industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in November are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in November, in order, are: Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Machinery.
Customers’ |
% |
%Too |
%About |
%Too |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
77 |
10.6 |
75.5 |
13.9 |
-3.3 |
48.4 |
Oct 2024 |
80 |
12.2 |
69.1 |
18.7 |
-6.5 |
46.8 |
Sep 2024 |
76 |
13.2 |
73.6 |
13.2 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
Aug 2024 |
77 |
12.3 |
72.2 |
15.5 |
-3.2 |
48.4 |
Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 50.3 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower compared to the October reading of 54.8 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the second straight month in November after decreasing in September. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, three — Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products — reported price increases in November. “The Prices Index indicated slightly increasing prices in November for the second consecutive month. Aluminum, copper, and natural gas registered slight increases, offset by steel, plastic resins and crude oil moving down in price. Twelve percent of companies reported higher prices in November, compared to 20 percent in October,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In November, the five industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials are: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in November, in order, are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in prices in November as compared to October.
Prices |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
12.2 |
76.1 |
11.7 |
+0.5 |
50.3 |
Oct 2024 |
19.8 |
69.9 |
10.3 |
+9.5 |
54.8 |
Sep 2024 |
12.9 |
70.7 |
16.4 |
-3.5 |
48.3 |
Aug 2024 |
21.4 |
65.2 |
13.4 |
+8.0 |
54.0 |
Backlog of Orders†
ISM®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to the October reading of 42.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 26th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only one (Computer & Electronic Products) reported expanded order backlogs in November. “The index remained in deep contraction in November, as improvement in new orders coupled with reduced production levels were insufficient to prevent backlogs from declining further,” says Fiore.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, four reported growth in order backlogs in November: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Primary Metals; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in November — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.
Backlog of |
% |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
92 |
14.5 |
54.6 |
30.9 |
-16.4 |
41.8 |
Oct 2024 |
93 |
14.1 |
56.4 |
29.5 |
-15.4 |
42.3 |
Sep 2024 |
92 |
14.5 |
59.1 |
26.4 |
-11.9 |
44.1 |
Aug 2024 |
91 |
13.1 |
61.0 |
25.9 |
-12.8 |
43.6 |
New Export Orders†
ISM®‘s New Export Orders Index registered 48.7 percent in November, up 3.2 percentage points from October’s reading of 45.5 percent. “The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders contracted for a sixth month after expanding in May and contracting in April, with two straight months of expansion before that. New export orders continue to be weak, as international trading partners struggle with weak economies, but the slowing rate of contraction may indicate that stimulus measures taken by countries like China and Japan could be starting to have an effect on U.S. export orders,” says Fiore.
The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in November are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in exports in November.
New Export |
% |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
75 |
10.6 |
76.1 |
13.3 |
-2.7 |
48.7 |
Oct 2024 |
74 |
7.7 |
75.6 |
16.7 |
-9.0 |
45.5 |
Sep 2024 |
73 |
7.2 |
76.1 |
16.7 |
-9.5 |
45.3 |
Aug 2024 |
74 |
7.2 |
82.8 |
10.0 |
-2.8 |
48.6 |
Imports†
ISM®‘s Imports Index continued to indicate cooling in November; the reading of 47.6 percent is 0.7 percentage point lower compared to the reading of 48.3 reported in October. “Imports contracted for the sixth month in a row after five consecutive months of expansion, preceded by 14 consecutive months of contraction. Panelists’ companies continue to limit their investments in inventories, as overall growth potential begins to solidify,” says Fiore.
The four industries reporting an increase in import volumes in November are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries that reported lower volumes of imports in November, in order, are: Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Machinery.
Imports |
% |
%Higher |
%Same |
%Lower |
Net |
Index |
Nov 2024 |
83 |
10.2 |
74.8 |
15.0 |
-4.8 |
47.6 |
Oct 2024 |
84 |
11.7 |
73.1 |
15.2 |
-3.5 |
48.3 |
Sep 2024 |
82 |
10.2 |
76.2 |
13.6 |
-3.4 |
48.3 |
Aug 2024 |
84 |
10.1 |
78.9 |
11.0 |
-0.9 |
49.6 |
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in November was 170 days, an increase of two days compared to October. Average lead time in November for Production Materials was 79 days, a decrease of two days compared to October. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 44 days, a decrease of two days compared to October.
Percent Reporting |
|||||||
Capital |
Hand-to- |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average |
Nov 2024 |
16 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
29 |
27 |
170 |
Oct 2024 |
16 |
5 |
12 |
12 |
28 |
27 |
168 |
Sep 2024 |
16 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
30 |
28 |
174 |
Aug 2024 |
16 |
5 |
11 |
12 |
30 |
26 |
167 |
Percent Reporting |
|||||||
Production |
Hand-to- |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average |
Nov 2024 |
8 |
24 |
28 |
27 |
9 |
4 |
79 |
Oct 2024 |
9 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
9 |
5 |
81 |
Sep 2024 |
7 |
26 |
28 |
27 |
7 |
5 |
80 |
Aug 2024 |
6 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
9 |
4 |
79 |
Percent Reporting |
|||||||
MRO Supplies |
Hand-to- |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average |
Nov 2024 |
30 |
34 |
17 |
13 |
6 |
0 |
44 |
Oct 2024 |
30 |
34 |
18 |
12 |
5 |
1 |
46 |
Sep 2024 |
27 |
37 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
46 |
Aug 2024 |
30 |
35 |
20 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
43 |
About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2024.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data is weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers’ Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers’ stock levels of respondent companies’ products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers’ Inventories Index, numerically, a reading: above 50 percent is “too high,” equal to 50 percent is “about right,” and below 50 percent is “too low.” However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers’ inventories may be considered to be “about right” if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right).
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.
ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM”) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) (“ISM ROB”) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, “Content”) of ISM (“ISM ROB Content”). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]. Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.
The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring December 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, January 3, 2025.
*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
Contact: |
Kristina Cahill |
Report On Business® Analyst |
|
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager |
|
Tempe, Arizona |
|
+1 480.455.5910 |
|
Email: [email protected] |
SOURCE Institute for Supply Management
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