This time last week, Liverpool sat at the top of the Premier League table and were considered amongst the two favourites to win the Europa League in a season still full of promise with just weeks remaining.
Suddenly, in the span of seven days, the Reds are now on the outside looking in for the domestic title, and rest on the precipice of European elimination as they travel to Italy to visit Atalanta on Thursday staring down a 3-0 aggregate deficit.
It’s all gone wrong for Jurgen Klopp’s men, who suffered a heavy defeat in the first leg of this matchup, before defeat to Crystal Palace over the weekend, with both adverse results coming at their Anfield fortress. With Klopp set to depart the club at the end of the season, it suddenly feels as if the compounding injury issues are finally starting to catch up with Liverpool at the worst possible time.
Sitting sixth in the Serie A table, Atalanta have won just one of their last five domestic fixtures, but remain totally unbeaten in European play, with a nearly perfect home record of three wins and a draw.
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Liverpool vs Atalanta prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Liverpool (-200)
- Score prediction: Atalanta 1-3 Liverpool
It’s hard to imagine Liverpool will be able to pull off a comeback of this caliber, but they’ve famously done it before under Jurgen Klopp, so they’ll surely put in a shift regardless of whether it actually comes off. Liverpool’s biggest issue is finishing, but once they see one go in, the floodgates can often open.
Liverpool should manage to win, but whether they can win by enough remains to be seen.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Atalanta win | +425 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Liverpool win | -200 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -210 N: +145 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: -115 U: -120 |
| Atalanta to advance |
-550 |
| Liverpool to advance |
+350 |
Liverpool vs Atalanta match facts
- Date: Thursday, April 18, 2024
- Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo, Italy)
- Referee: Francois Letexier (FRA), VAR: Jerome Brisard (FRA)
- Last meeting: Liverpool 0-3 Atalanta (Apr. 11, 2024 | Europa League)
Liverpool vs Atalanta best bet
- Pick: Liverpool 21+ total shots
- Odds: +115 (FanDuel)
Liverpool may not make up the three-goal deficit, but you better believe they’re going to try.
Even when they’re not trying to overcome a huge deficit in a European second leg, the Reds surpass this shot threshold on a regular basis — Liverpool have registered 20 or more shots on 16 different occasions in Premier League play alone, including in four straight league games and six of their last seven. They logged 19 shots in the first leg against Atalanta worth 2.6 xG, and pummeled Sparta Prague with 42 shots over two legs in the previous round.
The Reds are -120 to register 20 total shots, but it will take a superhuman attacking effort to push for this turnaround, so bumping up one more rung to secure plus odds feels reasonable.
Liverpool vs Atalanta prop bet
- Pick: Liverpool over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +138 (BetMGM)
Liverpool should have scored at least two in the opening leg, but their finishing was a disaster across the 90 minutes.
Here, on the road, the Reds should be able to make up for their first-leg failures in front of goal. Atalanta’s cup-specific goalkeeper Juan Musso made five saves, but only faced 0.93 xGOT, meaning his efforts were largely to be expected, and it was Liverpool’s issues that led to their inability to score. Atalanta went and conceded two to Hellas Verona in league play at home on the weekend, so they’re beatable at the back.
While it’s hard to say whether it will be enough to see them through on aggregate, the Reds should be able to find what they need offensively in this match. Whether they’ll also be able to keep Atalanta from increasing their total is another matter, and at just +400 to advance, the value is backing Liverpool offensively, not on the whole — it’s likely they will concede in the process. If their qualification odds increase to 5/1 or more before kickoff, then it’s worth backing another Klopp miracle turnaround, but until then, just stick behind their attacking prowess.
Liverpool vs Atalanta live stream, TV channel
U.S. broadcast rights-holder CBS Sports will air this match exclusively on the company’s dedicated streaming service Paramount+, with the match between AS Roma and AC Milan selected instead for television broadcast.
In the U.K. this match will air on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on the company’s dedicated platform discovery+, while in Canada, DAZN is the exclusive streaming service of all UEFA club competitions.