President-elect Donald Trump has made tougher immigration enforcement a key campaign promise in each of his White House bids. If he follows through on his pledge for mass deportations and tighter immigration policies, it could create a financial burden for many Americans.
That’s because immigrants – including people who are in America illegally – support the job market, keep inflation in check and add to the federal coffers. That contributes to the overall US economy: If current immigration levels are sustained, the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) could increase by 0.2 percentage points each year over the next decade, leaving it 2% higher in 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s outlook report for the next decade. By contrast, that projected growth would take a hit if Trump were able to enact his mass deportation plans.
An estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants reside in the United States, but Trump’s focus has mostly been on deporting immigrants with criminal records. Goldman Sachs reported in June that it estimates about 1.2 million unauthorized immigrants, or 8% of that population, have criminal convictions.
Here are a few ways Americans would be impacted financially if Trump follows through on his mass deportation plan:
• Higher prices: Deporting millions of undocumented workers would mean that businesses will need to replace those laborers. With historically low unemployment, finding people willing to work for low pay could be difficult, and companies may need to advertise higher wages to attract workers to replace deported laborers.
• Jobs growth will slow: If huge populations of migrants are deported — or at the very least population growth slows as a result of tighter immigration policies — there will be less consumption of goods, which could hurt the labor market.
• Lower pay: Even as some people who fill the jobs left by deported laborers could get higher pay than the people they replace, in aggregate, deportations can lower paychecks for US-born workers.
Read more details about the impacts Trump’s mass deportation would have on the economy alone here.