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As the holiday season approaches, Adobe (ADBE) is predicting a record $240.8 billion in U.S. online spending this year, driven by steep discounts and the rise of mobile shopping.
This figure marks an 8.4% increase from 2023, which saw consumers spend $221.8 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31.
A key driver of this growth will be mobile shopping, with this season being labeled “the most mobile of all time,” as consumers embrace convenience and flexible payment options such as “buy now, pay later (BYPL),” Adobe said.
The firm forecasts a shift in consumer behavior as big markdowns push shoppers to buy typically pricier items, including electronics, appliances, and sporting goods. Electronics and toys are expected to see peak discounts of 30% and 27%, respectively, while TVs will get record discounts of 24% and sporting goods will be 20% off.
Adobe’s lead analyst, Vivek Pandya, said these discounting patterns are “driving material changes in shopping behavior” as consumers begin to “trade up” on items that were previously higher priced, which will help “propel growth for U.S. retailers.”
The critical Cyber Week shopping period — encompassing Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday — is expected to generate $40.6 billion in sales, representing about 17% of overall holiday sales. Bargain-hunting shoppers should plan to buy items during this period, as it offers “the deepest discounts,” Adobe said.
Consumers can expect to see early deals starting mid-October, which coincide with Amazon’s (AMZN) second Prime Day event and Walmart’s (WMT) discount event, setting the stage for a bustling e-commerce landscape.
In addition, social media influencers are playing an increasingly pivotal role in driving purchases. Adobe found that influencers convert shoppers 10 times more effectively than traditional social media channels. Generative AI is also expected to play a sizable role this holiday season, as shoppers use chatbots to find the best deals, search for specific items, and look for brand recommendations.
This holiday season is not only shaping up to be a record-breaking time for online shopping but also a transformative one, as consumers leverage discounts and digital platforms to maximize their holiday budgets.
The firm’s analysis is based on data from Adobe Analytics, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories.