- South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in response to North Korea’s support for Russia.
- Its weapon stockpiles could make a big difference for Ukraine.
- But South Korea remains wary of getting involved in the Ukraine war.
South Korea threatened to send weapons and resources to Ukraine in response to its longtime foe, North Korea, escalating support for Russia’s invasion.
If it goes ahead, it could prove a powerful ally.
After an emergency National Security Council meeting this week, top South Korean officials condemned North Korea for sending troops to Russia.
Their mission hasn’t been made explicit, but Ukraine has said they’re there to join Russia’s invasion.
Officials also briefed news outlets that Seoul could send weapons to Ukraine as part of a series of phased countermeasures.
The South Korean news agency Yonhap on Tuesday cited security officials who said Seoul could even send military personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korea’s presence in the conflict.
Russia’s foreign ministry threatened South Korea with “security consequences” should it get involved, Yonhap reported.
A fearsome arsenal
Analysts say Russia has a good reason to be concerned.
“South Korean weapons could potentially make a significant difference on both Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities,” Jeremy Chan, a China and Northeast Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.
South Korea, a US ally, has built a formidable arsenal of weapons in its decadeslong standoff with North Korea.
It includes antiaircraft and antimissile systems which could help Ukraine defend its towns and infrastructure from Russian attacks, Chan said.
There are also “world-class” K9 Howitzer guns, K2 tanks, and multiple-rocket-launcher systems, Chan said.
Seoul has already aided the supply of much-needed 155 mm shells to Ukraine, albeit at one remove.
South Korea sent ammo to Western allies such as the US and Poland, which freed them up to send their own to Ukraine.
Ellen Kim, a Korea expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, told BI that South Korean support for Kyiv could include giving intelligence on North Korean weapons and tactics.
Kim also said that “South Korea could assist in a psychological-warfare campaign against North Korean soldiers who may not want to fight in the war.”
The US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, said on Wednesday that “there is evidence” that North Korean troops are already training in Russia and warned against them joining the fight.
Experts on the country’s military told BI that soldiers sent there would be put under harsh measures to discourage them from deserting.
GAVRIIL GRIGOROV via Getty Images
South Korea hesitates
Significant obstacles stand in the way of South Korea arming Ukraine, though. Not least is South Korea’s long-standing ban on sending military assistance to foreign countries at war.
Chan said South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was domestically unpopular and would encounter difficulties repealing the law via South Korea’s center-left-dominated National Assembly.
“North Korea’s actions would have to present a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea’s national security before we would expect the National Assembly to authorize export of weapons to Ukraine,” he said.
Another factor Chan and Kim cited was South Korea’s desire to not entirely destroy its relationship with Russia, despite its growing fears about the Kremlin empowering North Korea and emboldening its leader, Kim Jong Un.
In return for North Korean shells and military support in Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to stymie United Nations inspections of North Korea’s nuclear program and could be prepared to hand it sophisticated military technology.
Seong-Joon Cho/Getty Images
Entrapment dilemma
Chan said Yoon was figuring out the best way to deter Russia.
“Seoul believes that the threat to provide weapons gives it more leverage over Moscow than it would have if South Korea were to begin providing weapons directly,” he said.
Future diplomatic and trade ties are another reason South Korea is hesitating to act — as well as the prospect of being pulled further into the Ukraine war than it intends.
“There is a possibility South Korea could be shooting at Russians and/or North Koreans, and it would internationalize and widen the war further,” Sean McFate, a strategy professor at Georgetown University, told BI.
“Worst case is it sparks a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula that drags the US and China into armed conflict.”
But the escalating alliance between Russia and North Korea may soon reach a point where South Korea feels it needs to act.
Because of Russia’s increasing reliance on North Korea, Kim Jong Un finds himself in a powerful position to negotiate sophisticated technology in return.
Such an exchange, Chan said, could be the red line that compels South Korea to get involved in the Ukraine war and send weapons.
Though it has the military power to enable Ukraine to hurt Russia, it’s an escalation that comes with real risks.
As Kim, the CSIS analyst, put it: “North Korea’s involvement dramatically raises the risk of entrapment for South Korea in the war.”