Sunday, December 22, 2024

How will the top five look? US LBM Coaches Poll projection after Week 11 upsets

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How voters handle Georgia and Miami after Saturday’s losses is the biggest question heading into this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll.

The Bulldogs were No. 2 before losing 28-10 to Mississippi. Now with two losses in SEC play, Georgia needs help to reach the SEC championship game and cannot afford another loss to earn an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff.

Previously No. 4, Miami was finally burned in ACC play with a 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech. After pulling out narrow wins against California, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Duke, the Hurricanes were unable to mount a late comeback after quarterback Cam Ward was sacked and lost a fumble with two minutes left.

Miami shouldn’t fall too far thanks to the dwindling number of unbeaten and one-loss teams in the Power Four. The degree of the Bulldogs’ tumble depends on how voters approach this confusing team: Is Georgia really one of the best teams in the country?

Things will get very complicated when comparing a few of the two-loss teams in the SEC. Alabama beat Georgia. So did the Rebels. How will this shake out?

Here’s our best guess for the top of this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll:

1. Oregon (10-0)

The Ducks continue to make things look easy in the Big Ten. Saturday’s 39-18 win against Maryland was Oregon’s fifth by 21 or more points in conference play, with last month’s 32-31 win against Ohio State the exception. All that’s left before heading to Indianapolis unbeaten are games at Wisconsin and home against Washington.

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2. Ohio State (8-1)

The Buckeyes’ 45-0 steamrolling of Purdue included another very nice game from senior quarterback Will Howard, who went 21 of 26 for 260 yards and three scores. The former Kansas State transfer has multiple touchdowns in every start during Big Ten play and avoided an interception for the first time since last month’s loss to Oregon.

3. Texas (8-1)

Texas took advantage of Florida’s ineffective quarterback play to win 49-17. The Longhorns have now won five games by least 31 points, twice in the SEC. While the Gators couldn’t get anything going under backup-turned-starter Aidan Warner, Quinn Ewers had 330 yards and a career-best five touchdowns. A trip to Arkansas awaits next week.

4. Tennessee (8-1)

Tennessee had no problems in a 33-14 win against Mississippi State other than an injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but Volunteers coach Josh Heupel said the move was precautionary. Tennessee can now turn to next week’s huge matchup at Georgia. A win there would lock the Volunteers into the playoff, barring a major collapse, and would go a long way toward putting them into the SEC championship game.

5. Penn State (8-1)

After failing to score an offensive touchdown in last week’s loss to the Buckeyes, Penn State rebounded with 485 yards of offense, including a combined 193 yards from running backs Kaytron Allen and Corey Smith, and beat Washington 35-6. The Nittany Lions still have to win at Minnesota on Nov. 23 to guarantee a playoff berth.

6. Notre Dame (8-1)

The Irish did whatever they wanted in a 52-3 win against Florida State. After a slow start, Riley Leonard finished with 215 yards and a touchdown through the air and another 70 yards and two scores on the ground. Notre Dame cracked 200 rushing yards for the second game in a row and the fifth time this season.

7. Miami (9-1)

The Hurricanes met their match against Georgia Tech. In the big picture, the loss may not derail Miami from reaching the ACC championship game and potentially earning a first-round playoff bye. But the room for error is gone and the odds of missing on an at-large bid with a loss in early December have risen dramatically.

8. Brigham Young (9-0)

Winning the Holy War against Utah in dramatic fashion makes this is a banner Saturday for unbeaten BYU. Better yet, the Cougars got a little more breathing room in the Big 12 with Iowa State’s loss to Kansas. That leaves BYU in the driver’s seat for the conference championship game with a two-game lead on teams in third place.

9. Indiana (10-0)

The offense was bogged down in the second half against Michigan but the defense put the clamps on the Wolverines to earn a 20-15 win. This locks down the first 10-win season in program history and sets up a heavyweight clash against Ohio State in two weeks. Even with a loss there, the Hoosiers are looking very good in terms of making the playoff as an at-large.

10. Alabama (7-2)

Coming off an off week, Alabama looked like a new team in beating LSU 42-13. Jalen Milore also seemed reborn, running wild against the Tigers with 185 yards and four scores. If this can continue, the Crimson Tide are headed for the playoff and likely a team to watch for the national championship.

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