With President Joe Biden exiting the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris now becomes the overwhelming front-runner to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
Harris’ biggest challenge lies further ahead, though: She has been polling the same as Biden — or just slightly better — against Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to multiple surveys taken before Biden withdrew from the 2024 contest.
And Biden was running behind Trump in many national and battleground-state polls — which precipitated the president’s withdrawal.
In NBC News’ latest national poll, conducted more than a week after Biden’s dismal debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump, both the president and Harris trailed Trump by 2-point margins among registered voters, though the actual percentages for each candidate were slightly different. Trump led Biden 45%-43%, while he took 47% to Harris’ 45% in their matchup. Both ballot tests fell within the poll’s margin of error.
Similarly, a post-debate national Fox News poll found Trump ahead by 1 point against both Biden (Trump 49%, Biden 48%) and Harris (Trump 49%, Harris 48%) among registered voters.
But other polls have shown Harris slightly outperforming Biden by 1 or 2 points — though, critically, still trailing Trump at this point in some key matchups.
A national CBS News/YouGov poll of likely voters conducted after the assassination attempt found Trump leading Biden by 5 points among likely voters, 52% to 47%, while it showed Harris trailing by 3 points, 51% to 48%.
And in New York Times/Siena College battleground polls of Pennsylvania and Virginia, Harris performed 2 points better than Biden did among likely voters in these two states.
Importantly, all of these results are within each poll’s margin of error — and so is the difference between Biden’s and Harris’ numbers. Also important: It’s possible these numbers could change after the news of Biden’s exit from the 2024 race. But for the moment, Biden’s numbers and Harris’ numbers look quite similar.
Where Harris runs stronger — and weaker — than Biden
While the recent NBC News poll found Biden and Harris running 2 points behind Trump nationally, the survey found some important differences among demographic groups.
For one thing, Harris slightly outperformed Biden among Black voters, leading Trump among this demographic by 64 points (78% to 14%). That compares with Biden’s 57-point lead among Black voters (69%-12%).
On the other hand, the NBC News poll showed Trump doing slightly better among white voters when matched up with Harris instead of Biden, leading her by 16 points among these voters, compared with his 14-point advantage here against Biden.
Among other demographics — by age, by gender, among Latino voters — there was almost no difference between Biden or Harris.
Indeed, the biggest differences between Biden and Harris in the poll went well beyond demographics.
Among the roughly one-quarter of Republican registered voters in the poll who said they were unsatisfied with Trump as the GOP’s nominee, Trump ran ahead of Biden by 46 points, 63%-17%. But when Trump’s opponent was Harris, more of these dissatisfied GOP voters flocked to Trump. The Republican’s lead with that group grew to 57 points, 73%-16%.
Meanwhile, the voters who preferred a third-party candidate in the poll’s multicandidate ballot test seemed more open to Harris coming in as a fresh face in the 2024 race.
Trump and Biden were virtually tied with these third-party-interested voters in a head-to-head matchup. Trump took 32% and Biden took 31%, with a plurality declining to make a two-way choice, saying they were undecided, would pick another candidate, or something else.
But when Harris was the choice against Trump, more of those respondents made a pick in the two-way ballot test. The vice president went ahead of Trump among these “other” voters, 46% to 39%, suggesting a higher upside with voters currently considering a third-party candidate.
Biden, Harris and Trump have almost equal positive-negative scores
The NBC News poll also showed Biden, Harris and Trump with almost equal positive-negative scores with the electorate.
- Trump: 38% positive, 53% negative (-15 net rating)
- Biden: 36% positive, 53% negative (-17 net rating)
- Harris: 32% positive, 50% negative (-18 net rating)
That said, while Harris had a slightly lower positive score in the poll, 15% of voters said they’re “neutral” about her, compared with just 11% who are neutral on Biden.
That suggests an opportunity for Harris to grow — or fall — with this sliver of voters in the middle.