Just one day before the election, polls show a statistically tied race for the White House with near-tossups in all seven swing states, making the race extremely unpredictable. Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a single digit in four new national polls released on Sunday and Monday, but three other surveys are dead heat.
US 2024 election: Here’s what new national polls say
The HarrisX/Forbes poll, which was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and shows that Harris leads Trump 49%–48% among likely voters with a one-point margin of error.
Harris is leading by four points (51%-47%) in a recent PBS News/NPR/Marist survey, and she is leading by two points (49%-47%), according to a Morning Consult survey of potential voters released on Sunday with a one-point margin of error.
In an ABC/Ipsos poll, Harris edge is three points, 49%-46%, as opposed to 51%-47% last week and 50%-48% in early October.
Harris and Trump are tied at 49%, according to surveys released on Sunday by NBC News and Emerson College, and a Yahoo News/YouGov survey similarly finds a 47%-47% deadlock.
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In a recently released HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters, Harris is up 49%–48%; but, 16% of all registered voters and 10% of likely voters may yet change their minds.
In an Economist/YouGov poll published on Wednesday, Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters, with 2% unsure and about 3% supporting other candidates (margin of error 3.6). This is a modest decrease from Harris’ 49%-46% lead last week.
According to the Cooperative Election Study, a survey supported by multiple colleges and carried out by YouGov, Harris is up 51%-47% in a very large likely voter poll that interviewed almost 50,000 people between October 1 and October 25. Only 3% of respondents are still unsure.
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Numerous other polls indicate close ties: Harris leads by just one point in polls by Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov, while the candidates were tied in recent surveys by The New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College, and CNN/SSRS.
The Times poll, which was widely followed, showed a drop in support for Harris after the newspaper’s earlier poll in early October, which put her ahead of Trump by 49% to 46%.
In a CNBC survey of registered voters issued Thursday, Trump leads 48% to 46% (margin of error 3.1), and in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters released Wednesday, he leads 47% to 45% (margin of error 2.5). These results represent Trump’s biggest advantage since August, when Harris was ahead 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, Harris eliminated Trump’s advantage over Biden since declaring her candidacy in July. However, her lead has dwindled over the last two months, reaching a high of 3.7 points in late August.