Thursday, December 12, 2024

Google’s quantum boost doesn’t really compute

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One of Google’s science projects is paying off in a big way, albeit way early.

Alphabet, parent company of the internet search giant, has seen its stock jump nearly 12% this week, since Google announced a new in-house chip called Willow designed to power quantum computing.

This type of computing uses qubits—more complex objects than the binary bits used in today’s computing—to perform far more complicated calculations than possible with current technology. The technology could ultimately be used to engineer things like medicines at a molecular level , produce hyper-accurate weather forecasts many days in advance and even break current data encryption protocols.

But as even Google’s announcement makes clear, quantum computing is still a long way off from any commercial use . “The next challenge for the field is to demonstrate a first ‘useful, beyond-classical’ computation on today’s quantum chips that is relevant to a real-world application,” wrote Google’s Quantum AI head, Hartmut Neven, in a blog post on Monday.

In a post on the X platform, Alphabet Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai described Willow as “an important step in our journey to build a useful quantum computer with practical applications in areas like drug discovery, fusion energy, battery design + more.”

That makes the $253 billion added to the company’s market capitalization this week look speculative at best. Google’s massive advertising business generates nearly that same amount annually now. It also exceeds the total market value of 94% of S&P 500 companies.

Many factors are likely at play. Pichai’s post on X got the attention of platform owner Elon Musk, who responded “Wow” to his 207 million followers. That might have sparked a surge of interest among investors who closely follow the voluble billionaire; call option trades on Alphabet hit the second-highest level this year on Tuesday, according to data from Vanda Research.

Google also has been primed for any sort of good news lately. Worries about the company’s competitive position in generative artificial intelligence and fears that the federal government will be successful in breaking the company up have combined to cast a shadow on the parent company’s stock. Before this week, Alphabet’s shares had lagged behind most of the company’s big tech peers as well as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq for the year.

Alphabet was the only of the megacap tech stocks to be trading below 20 times projected earnings for the next four quarters. Rival Meta Platforms fetched around 25 times forward earnings at the start of the week, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon .com and Nvidia all carry multiples above 30 times, according to FactSet.

Quantum computing doesn’t solve Google’s problems with the government, but analysts say the news does serve as a good reminder that the company still has considerable technical heft. “Advancements with Willow, which illustrate that Alphabet remains at the leading edge of technology innovation, are important for stock sentiment,” wrote Justin Post of BofA Securities. “While quantum is still years from broad commercial adoption, the new Willow quantum chip showcases, in our view, Google’s lead in quantum research,” wrote Colin Sebastian of Robert W. Baird.

The more pressing question for Google now is whether its technical muscle can address the challenges generative AI could bring to its core business. In a recent survey of U.S. internet users, Evercore ISI reported “a modest rise over the last six months for ChatGPT as a primary search engine.” But analyst Mark Mahaney added that Google maintained its share in “highly commercial” search use cases such as shopping and travel. “This does suggest that Google’s search revenue growth is unlikely to be negatively impacted anytime soon by search share shifts,” he wrote.

Google’s quantum computing breakthroughs will need those clicks to keep coming.

Write to Dan Gallagher at dan.gallagher@wsj.com

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