The advertising business roared back in 2024, and is set to continue to grow in 2025 … but linear TV will be the exception that growth. That’s according to the annual end-of-year advertising forecast from the media buying giant GroupM.
The agency says that 2024 will end with 9.5 percent growth in total advertising revenue, an upward revision from the 7.8 percent it predicted in June. In addition, 2024 will mark the first year that total global advertising revenue will top $1 trillion, projected to climb by 7.7 percent to $1.1 trillion in 2025.
But advertising is a business of haves and have-nots, and GroupM expects that just five companies — Google, Meta, TikTok owner ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba — will account for more than half of all global ad revenue.
For the entertainment industry, the TV business presents a mixed bag. GroupM predicts that global TV advertising (both linear and streaming) will grow just 2.4 percent on a compound basis from 2024 to 2029, and that in 2025 linear TV revenue will decline by 3.4 percent. Streaming TV revenue, on the other hand, will grow by 19.3 percent.
The collapsing cable bundle is impacting pay-TV channels, while streaming’s tentative steps into ads (with many Netflix, Disney+, and Max subscribers opting for ad-free tiers and lower ad loads overall) could result in less ad revenue in the near term.
GroupM predicts that streaming TV advertising revenue will overtake linear TV advertising revenue in 2029.
Meanwhile, GroupM reports that global audio advertising revenue will be basically flat in 2025 at $27 billion, declining slightly over the next four years; Print revenue, including print and digital revenue at newspapers and magazines will fall 4.5 percent in 2024, and another 3 percent in 2025.
And Cinema advertising will grow 5.2 percent in 2024 and will grow to 5.9 percent in 2029, reflecting stronger theatrical attendance. GroupM adds, however, that the $2.3 billion total it expects will still fall short of 2019’s $3 billion global figure.