There is a lot more demand on the grid, and that won’t be met by renewable energy, despite the efforts of the Biden administration to focus on wind and solar.
“There is no way, physically, under the even the best of circumstances, even with all the money that the IRA and the Biden administration threw at this,” he said.
Instead, Eisman said he expects to see heavy reliance on natural gas to generate more power in the coming years.
“What you’re seeing now is kind of another golden age now of gas that’s coming, yes, so that’s a big deal,” he said. “And then you know, there’s still going to be greenification, and you add it all up, and there’s a whole infrastructure story. Now, the Trump administration is obviously going to go more toward old energy versus new. I think they’re going to emphasize onshore even more. So, there’s a whole theme here of, you know, companies who build factories, electrify the factories, automate the factories.”
Right now, data centers coming online in Texas are building their own gas facilities, and now there is more focus by billionaires such as Bill Gates to build a nuclear plant for data centers in Wyoming as well.
LOOKING AT BORDERS
Kyle Bass, founder and CEO of Conservation Equity Management out of Dallas, Texas, said he’s looking forward to tighter controls on the Mexican border and ending the flights of drones by smugglers at the border. Bass said policy under the Biden administration has opposed shooting them down.
“That is about to change and it’s about to change rightfully so.”
Bass said he would like to see the Trump administration designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. “Once we do that, we can go on the offensive. And I’m going to tell you the whole game is about to change in a major way.”
Bass was also critical of Chinese land holdings. He pointed to a situation in Val Verde County, Texas, where a Chinese billionaire owns roughly 130,000 acres not far from Laughlin Air Force Base. The Chinese billionaire, Sun Guangxin, then built a 15,000-acre wind farm that tapped into the Texas electricity grid, the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, (ERCOT). Bass said that move allows Sun to monitor the Texas power grid.
“Can you imagine if China allowed us to go into its No. 1 operating base and build some windmills? No, I can’t imagine that. We just need to engage in reciprocity.”
Bass raised concerns about the amount of overall debt the Federal Reserve continues to hold and how much that debt has accelerated since 2008. He expects the Trump administration’s plan for the “Department of Government Efficiency,” or DOGE, will be effective.
“So, the wheels haven’t come off on the spending, and hopefully Elon Musk and DOGE will be able to slash costs out of this budget,” Bass said. “I’m fairly certain they’ll be able to slash costs out of defense, pharma, few other places where there’s so much fat that they won’t stop for a while. So, I’m very, very enthusiastic about that.”
Bass said he expects Trump will act swiftly after being inaugurated on Monday, Jan. 20.
“You guys are going to see some things — we all are — that are going to be pretty spectacular across the board, one as it relates to border security, one as it relates to the Treasury and the IRS, that one will put a smile on your face. Mark my words. Wait. Do you see what happens with the IRS on the first day? Maybe some really interesting things happening.”
GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL RISKS HEIGHTENED
Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the global research firm Eurasia Group, talked about some of the major risks facing the incoming Trump administration. Eurasia Group cited there is heightened political instability around the world in 2025, mainly due to the lack of international leadership, or a “vacuum of political leadership,” Kupchan said.
“I think the world today is more dangerous than at any time since the 1930s,” Kupchan said. “That doesn’t mean that we are heading toward World War three, but it means that we should respect history and realized the significant dangers that lie on our time.”
Looking at the U.S.-China relationship, President-elect Donald Trump will have a more aggressive policy towards China than President Biden. Kupchan noted several of Trump’s policy people “are laser focused” on China and want to more aggressively decouple from China. Kupchan pointed to the bluster about tariffs on China as high as 60%, with an average rate of 25%. Kupchan said the Chinese are bracing for these tariffs, which they see as unpredictable.
Neither side wants a tariff war, “but the structural conditions for a deal just aren’t there.”
While the U.S. will hit Chinese imports, Kupchan said China will respond by cutting off exports of key products to the U.S., particularly the minerals needed for technology such as computer chips. “The Chinese will hit back later this year with export controls on critical minerals to this country,” he said.
Kupchan added, “I do believe this relationship will break down over the next four years.”
TARGETING AG COMMODITIES
When it comes to agriculture, Kupchan said China will target commodities.
“I do know that policy elites in Beijing are currently trying to figure out what the most effective counter sanction on soybeans would be for them. So, this is a live — it’s a very live — topic right now in China,” he said.
He added, “We will see another real swack at corn and oilseeds and soybeans and it will hit. The rural areas will be affected quite significantly. I don’t know if Trump would be inclined to support farmers again. I just don’t know. But the risk around that issue is really high.”
Looking at the Russia-Ukraine war, Kupchan said Ukraine is slowly losing the war. Russia is slowly grinding forward, though losing 1,500 men a day. He believes there will be a cease-fire because Russia needs it, though there is no peace agreement.
Wheat from Ukraine likely won’t get out of the country in larger volumes, but if there is a cease-fire, then wheat will be cheaper because of lower insurance costs and make it easier to ship again out of the Black Sea, he said.
Russia will continue to operate as a bad actor by trying to disrupt Europe with assassinations, arson and cyberattacks. “They think they are at war with NATO and they’re acting like they’re at war with NATO.”
Also see, “Treasury Nominee Bessent Pledges to Press China on Ag Trade Commitments,” https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
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