The 2024 NFL season will end in less than two weeks when the Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, but it’s never too early for the Fantasy Football Today team to start planning for the upcoming Fantasy Football season. As FFT’s resident Giants fan, you know who I’ll be rooting for. Whether you want early preparation and names in mind for your 2025 drafts this coming summer or if you are in a Dynasty league, the following players are vital to get on your radar now. Their values can change from now until draft time, but the gap between current perceived value and what they can produce next season is large enough to create a crater of value in some scenarios. Heath Cummings sees an opportunity for a big score in 2025 with his favorite bounceback — a player drafted in the top three at his position with some believing he was likely to be QB1 overall in 2024 drafts. Injuries to his supporting cast and a more run-heavy approach than typical from his playcaller led to a disappointing Fantasy season, but there are signs in the postseason that things could change for 2025.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Over his last nine games, Mahomes has racked up top-10 Fantasy scoring numbers with an 18:2 touchdown to interception ratio. This aligns with the emergence of Xavier Worthy as an every-down receiver he can trust and the addition of Hollywood Brown to the lineup (on the back end). Even if Brown leaves via free agency, the Chiefs will be returning Rashee Rice to the roster in 2025.
If you extrapolate Mahomes last nine games over the course of a 17-game season, he would finish 2025 with: 4,301 yards, 34 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 45 carries, 317 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. He has averaged between 20.4 and 24.2 Fantasy points per game with just under 40 passing attempts over that period.
The latter stat is the key, according to Heath, as the Chiefs fit back into their former pass-heavy mold in the second half of the season. They increase their pass volume.
Heath also provided a historical look at Mahomes’ numbers:
Season-by-Season Fantasy Rankings & Stats:
- 2024: #11/#11 QB (#11/#10 per game) | 3,928 yards / 26 TDs / 11 INTs | 58/307/2 rushing
- 2023: #8/#8 QB (#12/#9 per game) | 4,183 yards / 27 TDs / 14 INTs | 75/389 rushing
- 2022: #1/#1 QB (#3/#1 per game) | 5,250 yards / 41 TDs / 12 INTs | 61/358/4 rushing
- 2021: #4/#4 QB (#5/#4 per game) | 4,839 yards / 37 TDs / 13 INTs | 66/381/2 rushing
- 2020: #4/#3 QB (#2/#2 per game) | 4,740 yards / 38 TDs / 6 INTs | 62/308/2 rushing
- 2019: #6/#6 QB (#5/#7 per game) | 4,031 yards / 26 TDs / 5 INTs | 43/218/2 rushing
- 2018: #1/#1 QB (#1/#1 per game) | 5,097 yards / 50 TDs / 12 INTs | 60/272/2 rushing
17-Game Pace Over the Last 7 Seasons:
- 2024: 4,174 yards / 28 TDs / 12 INTs | 62/326/2 rushing | 36.3 pass apg | 6.8 YPA
- 2023: 4,444 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs | 80/413 rushing | 37.3 pass apg | 7.0 YPA
- 2022: 5,250 yards / 41 TDs / 12 INTs | 61/358/4 rushing | 38.1 pass apg | 8.1 YPA
- 2021: 4,839 yards / 37 TDs / 13 INTs | 66/381/2 rushing | 38.7 pass apg | 7.4 YPA
- 2020: 5,372 yards / 43 TDs / 7 INTs | 70/349/2 rushing | 39.2 pass apg | 8.1 YPA
- 2019: 4,895 yards / 32 TDs / 6 INTs | 52/265/2 rushing | 34.6 pass apg | 8.3 YPA
- 2018: 5,416 yards / 53 TDs / 13 INTs | 64/289/2 rushing | 36.3 pass apg | 8.8 YPA
Key Trends Over the Last Seven Seasons
- Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/PA): 9.1, 8.8, 8.3, 7.3, 7.3, 6.5, 6.3
- TD Passes of 20+ Yards: 15, 15, 15, 11, 7, 3, 4
- KC Pass Rate Rank: Always Top-11
- KC Pass Attempts Rank: Top-six in five of the last seven seasons
- KC Defense Rank: Top-four in each of the last two seasons.
While true that Kansas City’s defensive improvement and lack of explosive plays have contributed to Mahomes’ recent statistical decline, there are trends within his recent production, the Chiefs’ recent offensive shift, and most importantly the hope for healthy receivers that lead Heath to strongly believe in the coming Fantasy bounceback. Mahomes’ 2025 price tag might reach its cheapest point ever since he debuted as the Chiefs starter. That’s the time to buy.