Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Yahoo ADP: QB14 vs. My Rank: QB9
There’s a good chance Washington ends up regretting drafting Daniels over Drake Maye, but that doesn’t mean Daniels can’t be a fantasy force right away. Last season he averaged the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels averaged 60+ rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s scheme ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona, also producing runs against light boxes at a league-high rate.
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Daniels is a truly elite runner who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72) while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 — the best ever). Running not only increases a fantasy quarterback’s upside but also his floor, and Daniels is likely to run as much as any QB in the league as a rookie.
Daniels is unquestionably an injury risk, but quarterback is deeper than ever (and he’s not even being drafted as a QB1). Daniels’ ADP has risen throughout the summer, but it still remains too low.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Yahoo ADP: WR29 vs. My Rank: WR15
Nabers had a prolific college career, topping 3,000 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns over three seasons at LSU. He led all WRs in yards per route run during his final season while also leading in career yards per team attempt — two of the highest signal metrics — and has yet to turn 21 years old! He’s an elite tackle-breaker who’s capable of playing the slot or outside.
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New York’s QB situation isn’t ideal, but Nabers otherwise landed in a terrific situation to put up a monster rookie season. The Giants have arguably the thinnest WR room in the league and lost both Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller during in the offseason. Brian Daboll called a top-five no-huddle rate as one of the league’s faster paces last season despite a disastrous offense, and the entire NFC East division is uptempo and should produce a ton of plays.
The Giants improved their offensive line during the offseason, and Daboll ran the Buffalo offense that averaged 165 targets to Stefon Diggs across 2020-2021. Daboll appears to love Nabers, spending the sixth overall pick on the LSU star. Nabers probably has something like a 45% chance of having a better fantasy season than Marvin Harrison Jr., yet the latter’s ADP is curiously 55 picks higher.
Nabers should see 140+ targets as a rookie with upside for more, so his WR29 ADP looks way off.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP: RB21 vs. My Rank: RB11
It’s typically best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of missing games, but Conner’s ADP remains far too low thanks to injury concerns and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most RB fantasy points from Week 13 on last season and finished third in rush yards over expectation, behind only Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Conner is an underrated three-down back who quietly led all RBs in 20+ yard rushes last season.
The Cardinals were a top-10 offense post Week 10 after Kyler Murray’s return last season, when Arizona’s rushing attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA per attempt. Murray should improve during his second year back from surgery, and the Cardinals added weapon Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride looks like a star at tight end, and Arizona snapped the ball with the sixth-most seconds left on the play clock last season (despite shaky QB play before Murray returned).
Conner has missed multiple games every season of his career, so it’s best to plan on him doing so again in 2024. The drafting of Benson can be seen as plus for Conner, as he’s unlikely to take away too many touches (third-rounder with a low athleticism score) but is the clear RB2 when/if Conner misses games. Benson is being drafted as the RB30 around pick No. 115, so use a ninth or 10th-round pick as insurance (Benson would likely be a top-15 RB in this system in games Conner misses).
All running backs carry significant injury risk, but Conner has a real chance at being a top-five fantasy RB when healthy. He’s a steal in the fifth/sixth round.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Yahoo ADP: RB37 vs. My Rank: RB22
Brooks compared equally or even favorably to Bijan Robinson in most rushing/receiving categories as Texas’ starting RB in 2023. He’s a three-down back who was easily the best RB prospect in this year’s draft (and would’ve been drafted much higher if not for ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans on running the ball heavily, and top 50 picks have performed well historically in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the No. 9 fantasy RB over the final seven weeks last year, and Canales should be a huge boost to an upgraded Carolina offense that also added Diontae Johnson during the offseason. Brooks may require patience coming off surgery, but his ADP is factoring that in too much. Hubbard and Miles Sanders won’t be a hurdle when Brooks is healthy. Brooks should be a workhorse in a Canales scheme over the second half of the season when it matters most in fantasy.
There’s a huge tier break after around RB20, and Brooks possesses the most fantasy upside among them.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP: WR21 vs. My Rank: WR12
Kupp’s performance unquestionably dropped last season when he was clearly playing through injury. However, a compromised Kupp still managed to match Puka Nacua’s targets when they were on the field together, including first-read target share. Kupp finished with the ninth-most red-zone receptions while playing just 12 games on one leg. Nacua emerged as a true alpha as a rookie and will continue to demand targets, but Kupp enters 2024 finally healthy.
Kupp just turned 31 years old, but fantasy wide receivers traditionally don’t show much decline during their eighth year in the league. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play when their offense was fully healthy last season, and Sean McVay is a master at producing WR fantasy points. Kupp is just two seasons removed from posting a 191-145-1,947-16 campaign, yet he’s available in Round 4 of Yahoo drafts, with 20 wide receivers being drafted ahead of him.
The Rams have Demarcus Robinson as their WR3, Colby Parkinson as their TE1 and an RB1 who’s suffered multiple injuries throughout his brief career, so the targets will be extremely condensed. Moreover, Nacua ran more routes last season than he did throughout his college career, so he’s hardly a guarantee to hold up, presenting massive potential upside for Kupp.
I rank Kupp as a top-12 fantasy WR, yet he’s available in Round 4.