I’ve seen this one before. Mercedes finishes FP1 fastest, sparking excitement along the lines of ‘we’re so back!’ — Mercedes then fails to get any faster through the rest of the weekend, sliding behind McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull for pace.
It could be a similar script in Las Vegas.
Lewis Hamilton put in a rapid final lap at the end of FP1 to finish nearly 0.4s clear of teammate George Russell in P2, with Lando Norris nearly a second off Hamilton’s time in third.
Yes, the run plans are clearly different, making it hard to glean too much from that performance.
Still, Mercedes will be pleased with that start. The team has fared a little better in cooler conditions this year, meaning the cold of Las Vegas might help.
But I’d still be surprised if it had the outright pace to finish ahead of both McLaren and Ferrari.
I commented to my colleagues to think back to 12 months ago, and how different things were. We were genuinely questioning if the rest of the race weekend would happen after the loose water valve cover caused FP1 to be canceled just eight minutes in.
Everything turned out good in the end, but boy was that a torrid opening night.