By Editorial Dept – Jan 17, 2025, 8:30 AM CST
Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure warfare has once again gained momentum, with Russian airstrikes continuing to target critical facilities in western Ukraine and Ukraine returning the same on the TurkStream pipeline running through southern Russia.
This is the backdrop to the halting of Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine. Energy started this war, and energy will end it. The Ukrainian attack on a compressor station along the TurkStream pipeline in Russia’s Krasnodar region caused only minor damage and did not halt compressor station operations, but it has made parts of Europe a bit nervous. The countries that receive Russian gas via the TurkStream include Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia, Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina. If TurkStream were to be disabled, there would only be one remaining route for gas into Europe – LNG. Last year, LNG accounted for nearly 40% of Europe’s gas imports. That’s why even a minor attack on TurkStream can roil European markets.
In the meantime, Russian airstrikes in western Ukraine will stretch Ukraine’s defenses beyond the active frontlines in the east. Russia’s continued targeting of infrastructure could disrupt Ukraine’s economic stability as well as interfere with its ability to sustain military operations.Â
Trump believes he can resolve it, through sanctions and a simple carrot-and-stick approach, a plan for which is apparently in the works. Essentially, it’s a repeat of the Biden administration’s…
Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure warfare has once again gained momentum, with Russian airstrikes continuing to target critical facilities in western Ukraine and Ukraine returning the same on the TurkStream pipeline running through southern Russia.
This is the backdrop to the halting of Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine. Energy started this war, and energy will end it. The Ukrainian attack on a compressor station along the TurkStream pipeline in Russia’s Krasnodar region caused only minor damage and did not halt compressor station operations, but it has made parts of Europe a bit nervous. The countries that receive Russian gas via the TurkStream include Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia, Romania and Bosnia-Herzegovina. If TurkStream were to be disabled, there would only be one remaining route for gas into Europe – LNG. Last year, LNG accounted for nearly 40% of Europe’s gas imports. That’s why even a minor attack on TurkStream can roil European markets.
In the meantime, Russian airstrikes in western Ukraine will stretch Ukraine’s defenses beyond the active frontlines in the east. Russia’s continued targeting of infrastructure could disrupt Ukraine’s economic stability as well as interfere with its ability to sustain military operations.Â
Trump believes he can resolve it, through sanctions and a simple carrot-and-stick approach, a plan for which is apparently in the works. Essentially, it’s a repeat of the Biden administration’s handling of Iran, minus the hot, direct conflict that is attached to Russia’s sanctions. That could mean easing some sanctions or the price cap (Bloomberg) on the one hand and tightening other sanctions (on shippers and buyers) on the other hand. In other words, dangle a carrot in front of producers and threaten buyers with a stick. It remains unclear how this would result in a peace deal (with the timeframe for Trump jumping from one week to some time during the first 100 days in office).
