Financial author and Harvard Business alumnus Harry Dent speaks with Fox News Digital about the political indicators that could help trigger an economic recession.
The U.S. economy is at risk of tumbling into recession if President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda takes its most disruptive path, according to one of America’s most outspoken economists.
“It’s fine to say, well, we should have less illegal immigrants, but to ship people back that are already here in the workforce, contribute to the economy and think it’s not going to be felt, it will be,” Harry Dent, who previously predicted the biggest crash of our lifetime, told Fox News Digital.
“You got an overstimulated economy, and then you’re going to send [millions of] people out, which would probably reduce [gross domestic product] 1 to 1.5% right there,” he expanded. “It only takes a 2, 3, 4% drop in GDP to literally throw you physically into recession. So I’m just saying… it’s a bit ill-timed… a big trigger.”
In January, the newly-inaugurated Trump administration deported nearly 38,000 people, Reuters reported, as Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are just beginning their efforts to contain what was declared a national emergency.
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Southern border enforcement – a Trump priority on Day One – handed down a goal of at least 1,200 to 1,500 illegal immigrant arrests per day, a report released last month indicated.
Economist Harry Dent talks to Fox News Digital about how Trump-era immigration policies could affect recession chances. (Getty Images)
For practically two years, Dent has predicted the “bubble of all bubbles” to burst in the market, mostly due to artificial stimulus that started in order to recover from the Great Recession and escalated during the Biden administration, with $6.3 trillion added to the deficit in his four years.
The economist still believes a recession will hit the economy in 2025, but now, the timing and impact could be exacerbated by Trump’s immigration and tariff policies.
“I’m not for illegal immigration, obviously,” Dent clarified. “A lot of these people have been in here forever, okay? And they’ve had kids and stuff. So, [it’s] good to draw the line now if they want to say, ‘Everybody’s got to be legal, and we make it a little easier and more streamlined.’ That would be a great policy, because we need immigrants.”
“We [have] got to get a clear immigration policy. But to just send 2 million people back suddenly, I think we’re already tipping into a recession this year without it. This is going to make it happen quicker, sooner,” he continued. “But most important, it’s going to make it look like whoever threw on these tariffs and whoever sent these immigrants back caused the recession.”
Economist and Harvard Business alumnus Harry Dent speaks to Fox News Digital about the market’s post-election rally and why a second Trump administration won’t be able to prevent a still-expected ‘crash of a lifetime.’
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Fox News Digital in response: “The invasion of illegal migrants that Joe Biden oversaw is costing the United States hundreds of billions of dollars – in addition to the incalculable losses suffered by the victims of migrant crime like Laken Riley. What America cannot afford is a lackadaisical approach to our border security and immigration laws, and the Trump administration is committed to putting Americans and America First.”
Dent noted that America’s GDP per capita is more than 82,000, which means the country’s average economic output is 50% more than both Canada and most of Europe. This makes the U.S. an attractive business environment for “the best people from other countries.”
“It only takes a 2, 3, 4% drop in GDP to literally throw you physically into recession. So I’m just saying… it’s a bit ill-timed… a big trigger.”
“The U.S., that’s our secret sauce. From the beginning, we were new. The people who moved here were more innovative and had plenty of space to grow in and innovate in, and we’re still attracting the best people from around the world to augment and expand our already most affluent people around the world,” he explained.
“So this is a winning formula. Again, yes, get clear policy, but do not basically try to substantially suppress immigration. We will stop growing.”
Trump administration border czar Tom Homan says there are no plans to slow down ICE raids after an alleged FBI leak, and details latest border crackdown numbers one month into the 47th presidency.
“Aging new generations cause rising productivity and rising GDP and falling inflation all at the same time. They’re anti-inflation because productivity is the enemy of inflation. In the 1970s, [the] highest inflation was just when the Baby Boomers were costing society in school, and productivity was the lowest in U.S. history at like 1%,” Dent added.
“Demographics [are] important and immigrants are essential. And we are, folks, in a global economy… it’s a winning formula and all of the developed countries are going to be competing for the best immigrants in the world.”
He further put the blame on “bureaucracy” for a mismanaged immigration system, claiming “this is everybody’s fault” for a surge in illegal crossings in recent years.
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Financial author Harry Dent warns investors this is a time to be extra cautious on ‘Cavuto: Coast to Coast.’
“Let’s just say now, ‘Okay, let’s get a quicker path, easier path to legalization for the illegals in here. Let’s streamline our legalization and immigration process,’ and… We shouldn’t have illegal immigration of any significance in the future. But don’t punish the people now from the past. It’s everybody’s fault, and we will pay.”
“Those are triggers,” Dent continued. “But you don’t stop a free market… Recessions aren’t bad. They’re like sleeping. We restore, rebalance, have dreams, resolve problems, all types of stuff. Sleep is not a waste of time. Recessions cleanse the economy of bad debts… What doesn’t kill you makes us stronger. That’s free market capitalism in its essence. Things have to be free to succeed, which most countries don’t have fully. But they have to be free to fail.”