NFL Week 12 Overreactions
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down NFL week 12 wildest games.
Sports Seriously
The 2024 fantasy football season is just a couple weeks away from the playoffs for most fantasy managers.
Week 12 (MNF pending) was another dandy. Cooper Rush, Will Levis, and Bryce Young finished as QB1s. Saquon Barkley outscored the next-closest running back by 13.6 half-PPR points. Nick Chubb, Ameer Abdullah, and Jaylen Warren posted RB1 finishes. The top-four receivers were Jordan Addison, Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle, and D.J. Moore. And the top-10 tight ends consisted of Noah Gray, Chig Okonkwo, Austin Hooper, Luke Schoonmaker, and Cade Stover. The script writers were certainly at the top of their game.
Week 13 is upon us now.
Here’s a look at my Week 13 fantasy football rankings. Toggle between standard, half PPR (point per reception), and full PPR to see where players rank in your league’s format.
Our team at USA TODAY Sports has you covered with plenty of content to help with your Week 13 lineup and roster decisions. Wondering who the best waiver-wire claims are? We have that covered so you can make your pickups. Need to know what players you can drop? We have that as well. We also have a list of the 10 best buy low/sell high candidates.
Please note: These rankings will change significantly as the week goes on. Check back on Sunday morning for final updates.
Week 13 fantasy football quarterback rankings: Risers and fallers
- UP: Baker Mayfield – It feels strange to put fantasy’s QB5 in this spot, but here we are. Baker has finished as a top-eight quarterback in 8 of his 11 games this season. He’s an excellent start against a Panthers team that’s allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
- UP: C.J. Stroud – The 23-year-old has ranked higher than QB10 just once since Week 1, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism in Week 13. The Jaguars are giving up the most fantasy points to passers this season, including a season-best 23.5 to Stroud in Week 4.
- UP: Patrick Mahomes – Prior to Week 9, Mahomes had gone 16 consecutive regular-season starts without surpassing two touchdowns. He’s now racked up three scores in three of his last four games. He’s a top-eight play against a Raiders team that’s ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to the position since Week 3.
- UP: Matthew Stafford – Since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 8, Stafford has posted the following performances: QB5, QB13, QB20, QB5, and QB7. Three of the last six quarterbacks to face the Saints have surpassed 24 fantasy points.
- UP: Bryce Young – This is a deep league-only play, but Bryce Young has now ranked as the QB19 or better in three of his last four games. Tampa Bay has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
- DOWN: Joe Burrow – Fading a quarterback who has 1,035 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last three games might not be wise, but the Steelers’ defense warrants that respect. No quarterback has eclipsed 18.4 fantasy points against Pittsburgh in 2024.
- DOWN: Tua Tagovailoa – The Hawaiian native is riding hot in his last two games, but he could bust on Thanksgiving. Tua’s stats in cold-weather games are well-documented, but his general struggles on the road are even more concerning. Here’s how his last nine road games have gone: QB26, QB18, QB22, QB15, QB26, QB10, QB16, QB19, and QB22, in that order. It doesn’t help that the Packers have surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
- DOWN: Kirk Cousins – Excluding his two matchups with the Bucs, Cousins has ranked higher than QB16 once all season. The veteran ranks middle of the pack in most advanced quarterback metrics, but again, the Bucs matchups are doing a lot of the work there. He could be in for a long game against a potent Chargers defense.
Week 13 fantasy football running back rankings: Risers and fallers
- UP: Bucky Irving – In his last two games, the rookie has finished as the RB6 and RB3 in half-PPR formats. Now he faces a Panthers team that’s allowed the most fantasy points to opposing backfields this campaign.
- UP: Chase Brown – With the kind of volume Brown is receiving, we shouldn’t spend much time worrying about matchups. Over his last three games, the 24-year-old has posted performances of RB5, RB4, and RB10 while averaging 27 touches per contest. His opponent, the Steelers, have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 4.
- UP: James Cook – The 49ers have turned into a run-funnel defense of late. Over their last six games, they’ve ceded 10 touchdowns to running backs, compared to just eight from quarterbacks. Cook has finished as a top-10 back in four of his last six games.
- UP: Rico Dowdle – A favorable game script led to Dowdle racking up 98 yards on 22 touches in Week 12, and another favorable matchup awaits in Week 13. Since Week 7, no team has allowed more touches and fantasy points to running backs than the Giants.
- DOWN: Christian McCaffrey – Is it time to be concerned about CMC? In three games since his return, the veteran has yet to score and is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. If Brock Purdy and Trent Williams can return in Week 13, McCaffrey should still be considered an elite play in a plus matchup.
- DOWN: Kyren Williams – In six games with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field, Kyren has totaled 505 scrimmage yards and three scores, while finishing higher than RB15 just once. In five games without both star receivers on the field, Williams has racked up 453 yards and a whopping eight touchdowns, ranking as the RB12 or better four times. Sure, the matchup with the Saints is enticing, but the back’s floor and ceiling is lower when the Rams are healthy.
- DOWN: James Conner – From a fantasy perspective, Conner has been solid this season, though not spectacular. Over his last nine games, the 29-year-old has ranked higher than RB15 just once. Things won’t be easy this week, as only three backs have posted double-digit half-PPR points against the Vikings all season.
- DOWN: Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson has been the fantasy version of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde in 2024. The 26-year-old has had four performances of RB35 or worse, and five outings where he’s finished as the RB10 or better. The issue is that the Mr. Hyde version can tank lineups, as he’s posted 6.2 half-PPR points or fewer in four of his last nine games.
Week 13 fantasy football wide receiver rankings: Risers and fallers
- UP: Courtland Sutton – Since Week 8, Sutton is fantasy’s WR2. During that stretch, here is how he’s ranked: WR26, WR7, WR7, WR27, and WR2. He’s a locked-and-loaded top-10 receiver against a Browns team that’s given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position since Week 3.
- UP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Is there a new WR1 in Seattle? Over his last three games, JSN has finished as the WR1, WR12, and WR11, and the last two took place with DK Metcalf on the field. Fire him up against a reeling Jets defense.
- UP: DJ Moore and Keenan Allen – In the two games since the Bears released themselves of the Shane Waldron misery, Moore and Allen have racked up 23 and 16 opportunities (targets plus carries), respectively. Moore totaled 119 yards and a score in Week 12, while Allen posted 86 yards and a score of his own. Both are in play against a Lions secondary that’s ceded the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season.
- UP: Michael Pittman Jr. – With Josh Downs a “long-shot” to play in Week 13, Pittman is back on the WR3 radar. Against the Lions in Week 12, MPJ totaled 96 yards, his best mark since Week 4.
- UP: Xavier Legette – The rookie has finished as a top-35 receiver in four of his last six games, and a mouthwatering matchup awaits in Week 13. Since Week 5, the Bucs have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to receivers.
- DOWN: Justin Jefferson – You’re still starting Jefferson, but it might be time to lower expectations. Over his last three games, Jefferson has posted performances of WR33, WR29, and WR60, and he’s ranked higher than WR11 just twice in his last nine outings. Let’s hope for a “squeaky wheel” game in Week 13.
- DOWN: Tyreek Hill – Speaking of adjusting expectations, Tyreek is no longer the sure-fire WR1 he once was. In fact, Hill hasn’t finished as a WR1 since Week 1. Traveling to Lambeau on a short week doesn’t help matters, nor does the fact that the Packers have ceded the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 5.
- DOWN: Deebo Samuel Sr. – Among receivers with at least four games under their belts since Week 4, Deebo ranks 60th with an average of 7.2 half-PPR points per game. Yikes.
Week 13 fantasy football tight end rankings: Risers and fallers
- UP: Taysom Hill – Over his last five games, Hill has posted finishes of TE1, TE29, TE5, TE16, and TE1. In fact, no player scored more points than the veteran Swiss Army Knife in Week 11. Given that his flower hasn’t been any lower than most high-end tight ends, Hill is a no-brainer top-five option in Week 13.
- UP: Jonnu Smith – Since Week 7, no tight end has scored more fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. The 29-year-old has finished inside the top three in three of his last six games, and he’s ranked lower than TE17 just once since Week 4. He gets a solid matchup this week, as the Packers have allowed the eighth-most points to tight ends since Week 3.
- UP: Noah Gray – With nine targets and four touchdowns in his last two games, Gray is officially on the streaming radar. The Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position in 2024.
- DOWN: Evan Engram – In even outings this season, Engram has finished higher than TE12 in half-PPR formats just once. Even if Trevor Lawrence returns, Engram is a fade in Week 13.
- DOWN: Dalton Kincaid – We shouldn’t let preseason ADP cloud our judgment of a player, and Kincaid is a prime example of that. The second-year tight end has finished as the TE14 or worse in all but one game this season. The matchup is also not on his side, as the 49ers have yet to allow double-digit half-PPR points to a tight end this season.