Sunday, December 22, 2024

Disney Stock Rises Post-Earnings as Wall Street Reacts to Longer-Term Guidance

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Disney shares rocketed higher in Thursday trading after the major studio, led by CEO Bob Iger, reported its latest quarterly results, including strong film unit results, driven by the likes of Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2.

The entertainment powerhouse’s streaming business also touted that Disney+ has crossed the 120 million subscriber mark and boosted its bottom line, reporting operating income of $321 million. 

The stock was up 6.23 percent at $109.12 at market close, with multiple analysts raising their stock price targets on the Burbank-based studio conglomerate as it provided Wall Street a rare look at three-year guidance.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris boosted his price target from $110 to $130 and wrote in a research note, “We see ESPN Flagship launch, consolidated entertainment growth, parks profit expansion and succession clarity as core components of the BUY thesis into 2025.”

CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon stuck to his “hold” rating on Disney shares, but boosted his price target by $22 to $120. “Disney took a bold move in providing three years of earnings guidance throuh fiscal year 2027 which got the equity market’s attention via higher share price,” he highlighted. “A major turnaround was seen in direct-to-consumer (DTC) to operating income … offset by a decline in linear networks,” he noted about the latest results.

Meanwhile, Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif-Ehrlich maintained her “buy” rating on Disney with a $120 price target. “Disney reported (a) mixed fiscal fourth-quarter with revenue above while operating income was modestly below our expectations,” she wrote in a report entitled “Modest Earnings Per Share beat; Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance Above Our Estimate.”

While calling entertainment and experiences segment earnings “directionally inline,” the expert described sports results as “modestly below expectations.” Noting that “Disney has a collection of best-in-class premier assets,” Reif-Ehrlich concluded: “Near-term catalysts include: 1) profitability inflection in DTC and 2) reacceleration in parks business.”

In a report entitled “Solid Results; Outlook Ahead Stronger,” UBS analyst John Hodulik stuck to his “buy” rating and $120 stock price target on Disney. “Disney reported largely in-line fiscal fourth-quarter results and provided a three-year outlook ahead of consensus,” he wrote, also noting the company’s “outlook for earnings per share growth in fiscal year 2025, with accelerating growth in fiscal 2026.”

The analyst also highlighted that Disney was on track for improved streaming profitability. “Core Disney+ adds were 4.4 million (UBS estimate 1.4 million; guidance for modest growth), including 1.2 million in U.S./Canada,” Hodulik said. “For fiscal year 20F25, management expects double-digit segment operating income growth with a $875 million year-over-year improvement at DTC, or around $1.02 billion versus UBS’ estimate of $1.07 billion.”

And the MoffettNathanson team lead by Robert Fishman and Michael Nathanson has the company at a “buy” rating with a $130 share price target. “This level and specificity of guidance may represent a whole new world for Disney, and of course is appreciated by us and the Street,” the analysts wrote. “But now it is left to all of us to dig into how confident management is in the forward projections. While this degree of guidance may be a departure for Disney, the broader industry in which the company operates remains as volatile as ever.”

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