With hours remaining until the College Football Playoff Selection Show (Noon ET, ESPN), betting markets have made their stance clear: SMU (-520) is the overwhelming favorite to claim the final at-large bid over Alabama (+350).
Those odds are current at FanDuel sportsbook as of 9:50 a.m. ET.
The debate over the spot has dominated discussion leading into Selection Sunday, where Alabama appeared well-positioned after holding the No. 11 ranking in last week’s penultimate CFP Rankings, but SMU’s narrow 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game was a worst-case scenario for the Crimson Tide. Clemson received an auto-bid while SMU’s loss was clearly within the margin of competition.
SMU’s 11-2 record, including an undefeated regular season in ACC play, has garnered significant support despite its lack of top-tier wins. Meanwhile, Alabama’s stronger strength of schedule and signature victory over SEC champion Georgia are weighed against three losses, including two to unranked teams, the most recent being a ghastly 24-3 loss at 6-6 Oklahoma.
MORE: The case for Alabama in the College Football Playoff
Betting lines reflect the likelihood that the CFP Selection Committee will reward SMU’s conference runner-up status to avoid setting a precedent that could diminish the value of championship games. If the committee booted SMU, it would essentially incentivize teams to not seek out those opportunities so as not to lose and potentially fall all the way out of the playoff field.
Alabama got the benefit of the doubt last season as it received the final spot over undefeated Florida State in a decision that still roils the ACC. This time around, the ACC has a better chance of bouncing an SEC team out for the last at-large bid.
College Football Playoff expert picks
Here’s how our college football staff would vote in the key spots — choosing teams Nos. 5-7 and the last at-large bid in the field — if they were members of the CFP Selection Committee.