Greg Sankey’s head has to be spinning this week as the SEC’s College Football Playoff chaos scenario is gaining traction following Alabama’s beatdown of LSU and Ole Miss posting its best win under Lane Kiffin against Georgia. We’re projecting the league to produce four teams in the final top 12, but there’s going to be a squad — perhaps two — with 10 wins left out of the mix given what’s happening elsewhere among the elites nationally.
It’s dangerous giving any SEC matchup the ‘playoff elimination game’ moniker at this point provided the league-wide parity coming down the stretch, but Tennessee at Georgia in Week 12 feels like a matchup in which the loser could be on the outside looking in a few weeks from now.
Miami’s upset loss to Georgia Tech creates disruption in the SEC’s war room a bit, too. If the Hurricanes finish 11-1 and then lose to SMU in the ACC Championship Game, the selection committee may have to decide between Mario Cristobal’s two-loss team and one from the SEC for the final spot.
Here’s what I would project the end-of-the-season CFP bracket to look like.
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Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets ahead of Tuesday night’s second College Football Playoff top 25 rankings reveal. Ohio State is the favorite at +330 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders include Oregon +350 and Texas at +425, according to latest odds at Caesars. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.
Projected byes in College Football Playoff
1. Oregon
Big Ten champion
Three more touchdown passes from Dillon Gabriel fueled the Ducks’ win over Maryland as Oregon now sits two wins away from a perfect regular season during Year 1 in the Big Ten. Dan Lanning has coached circles around the opposition this fall and his team appears to be the heavy favorite to garner top billing when the playoff begins, unless Ohio State or Indiana upsets the Ducks in Indianapolis. Oregon would have to lose out to not make the playoff at this point.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +350
2. Texas
SEC champion
The Longhorns pummeled short-handed Florida in Austin thanks to a five-touchdown outing from Quinn Ewers. Most are pointing to this team’s trip to College Station during rivalry weekend at the end of the month, but there’s two SEC games before that Texas will have to win first as heavy favorites. First up is a trip to old Southwest Conference foe Arkansas, which splattered Texas in 2021. I project Texas as the SEC Champion for now because I think a) it has the best path to get into the game and b) I like the way it matches up with possible foe Alabama, which it beat last season … though new Tide. coach Kalen DeBoer does seem to have Steve Sarkisian’s number.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +425
3. Miami
ACC champion
Cam Ward nearly pulled off another Houdini act with Miami facing a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss at Georgia Tech, but the Hurricanes’ star quarterback was sacked and stripped in the final moments. Miami’s first loss of the season opens the door for SMU in the ACC as the Mustangs now are in sole possession of first.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +3000
4. Boise State
Group of Five champion
Replacing projected Big 12 champion BYU inside the top 4 this week is Boise State. The Broncos, at best, will be 12-1 as the Mountain West champs in a few weeks and are keeping a close eye on Army the rest of the way. If the Black Knights upset Notre Dame and win the AAC, they’re going to have an argument in the Group of Five discussion.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
Projected CFP first-round games
Friday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 22
5. Ohio State vs. No. 12 Ole Miss (in Columbus)
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State
About the Buckeyes: The betting favorite to win the national championship, Ohio State will not get one of the playoff’s top four seeds unless the Buckeyes win out and hand Oregon its first loss in the Big Ten title game. The bout with Indiana in two weeks has major playoff seeding implications.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +330
About the Rebels: The “last team in” this week ahead of fellow projected 10-win Tennessee from the SEC, Ole Miss managed quite the resumé boost with its dominant victory over Georgia. The Rebels handled the Bulldogs at the line of scrimmage and kept Kirby Smart’s team at bay despite quarterback Jaxson Dart playing through pain.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1000
6. BYU vs. No. 11 Notre Dame (in Provo)
Winner plays No. 3 Miami
About the Cougars: Let’s face it: BYU was lucky to win at Utah in Week 11, benefiting from a late defensive holding penalty leading to a game-winning field goal that resulted in the Utes’ athletic director blowing a gasket on the officiating crew. The door’s wide-open for Colorado to win the conference, but BYU is the frontrunner to grab the league’s guaranteed bid, which won’t necessarily be inside the top four unless the Cougars finish unbeaten.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7000
About the Fighting Irish: Notre Dame is three wins over Virginia, unbeaten Army and USC away from finishing 11-1 with a virtually-guaranteed playoff trip. It’s unclear, right now, where Notre Dame will be seeded or how conference championship weekend will affect the rankings. Since the Fighting Irish are an independent, they won’t have a chance to leave a lasting impression on the committee.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2000
7. Indiana vs. No. 10 Georgia (in Bloomington)
Winner plays No. 2 Texas
About the Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti wanted to see more from his team during Indiana’s 20-15 victory over Michigan, but like the first-year coach said after the record-setting win that pushed his team to 10-0: we’ll take it. Indiana travels to Ohio State in two weeks for one of college football’s biggest games down the stretch.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800
About the Bulldogs: Georgia has entered the danger zone in the playoff discussion following Saturday’s loss at Ole Miss. That’s the second regular-season setback for the Bulldogs, who will likely be outside the at-large seed discussion if they fail to impress next week between the hedges against Tennessee.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +600
8. Penn State vs. No. 9 Alabama (in State College)
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
About the Nittany Lions: Projected to be one of three 11-1 finishers in the Big Ten behind unbeaten Oregon in a few weeks, Penn State passed the eye test against Washington. It was much-needed considering last week’s late-game falters during its loss to Ohio State.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2200
About the Crimson Tide: Could Alabama run the table and topple Texas in Atlanta to win the SEC Championship and cap Kalen DeBoer’s first season? CBS Sports colleague Jerry Palm thinks so. Jalen Milroe looked unstoppable in Baton Rouge as Alabama won convincingly for the second straight game with its back against the wall in the playoff picture.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +850
College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champion in the quarterfinals, so second-seeded Texas would be playing in New Orleans while the Rose Bowl welcomes the Big Ten champion to Pasadena.
MORE: How the committee will selection the inaugural 12-team field