Despite sitting atop the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages have become a feature of winters in Iran.
Iran grapples with air pollution all year, but air quality significantly worsens during winter when power plants are forced to burn low-quality heavy fuel oil — mazut — to compensate for the lack of gas.
A rare cold snap in recent weeks has exposed the extent of Iran’s struggles to meet the rising demand for gas, with school classes forced to go online and government offices ordered shut to conserve energy.
Highlighting the severity of the crisis, President Masud Pezeshkian last week appealed to the public to turn their thermostats down by 2 degrees Celsius to help address the energy deficit.
Other government officials have followed suit with similar pleas, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi telling his staff to wear warmer clothes at work.
Temperatures have plunged as low as -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of Iran in recent days.
“The situation is bad due to very cold weather, especially in Tehran and the northern provinces, but it’s exacerbated by the structural trend toward runaway consumption over the last two to three years without an accompanying increase in production,” said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
Old Infrastructure, Poor Management
Energy subsidies in Iran mean energy bills are generally low, which has promoted overconsumption.
But making matters worse is a devastating combination of mismanagement and outdated infrastructure that has significantly contributed to Iran’s inability to meet the rising demand for gas.
Gas flaring — the burning of gas that comes out of the ground when drilling for oil — is a major problem. Iran does not have the technology to collect it, so it is wastefully burned.
World Bank data shows that Iran ranked second globally in 2023 in terms of the volume of gas flaring, burning around 21 billion cubic meters. That is more than double that of the United States, which ranked fourth, and enough to supply 40 percent of the gas demand in neighboring Turkey, which has a population similar to Iran’s.
Iran’s major gas reserves are in the south, southwest, and offshore, so an expansive and powerful grid is needed to transport gas to the north. To do that, Iran needs to invest heavily both in expanding its aging infrastructure and increasing production, said Brew.
“But that’s difficult to do without investment constrained by both a weak economy and international sanctions,” he added.
The United States has imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear and missile programs.
The sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy and dented Tehran’s ability to sell oil and gas, its key exports. They have also prevented Iran from accessing foreign investment and technology.
The South Pars Field in the Persian Gulf is the world’s largest natural gas field, and Iran shares it with Qatar, where it is referred to as the North Dome.
While Qatar has signed lucrative deals with international energy companies to develop its section of the gas field, Iran has had to rely on lackluster domestic capabilities to exploit it.
Iran’s seemingly never-ending struggle with gas shortages in winter has led many to question the rationale behind exporting gas to neighboring Iraq and Turkey.
“Given how constrained it is by sanctions, Iran has to find and exploit any means of increasing exports, which increases pressure on supply at home,” Brew said.
The stand-off with the West over Iran’s nuclear program means the odds of sanctions being lifted are slim, and with Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, the pressure will increase even further, experts said.
By RFE/RL