‘CKU line cannot compete with Kazakh infrastructure for China – Europe freight’

After a long time of political tug-of-war, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan seem to have agreed on an outline for the China – Kyrgyzstan – Uzbekistan (CKU) line. It looks like the three countries will really build the line, which Kyrgyzstan has lauded as a major step in its logistical development. However, the future of the expensive CKU line may not be as rosy as it could seem.

Marat Shibutov, a Kazakh political scientist and member of presidential advisory body “Kurultai”, argues that the CKU line is not all rainbows and sunshine. Shibutov tells RailFreight.com that the line will compete with Kazakh rail infrastructure for the same flow of goods between China and Europe, once it is up and running. However, Kazakhstan’s rail infrastructure has too many advantages, which makes it unlikely that the CKU line can ever pose a challenge, he says.

Consequently, Kazakhstan’s businesses and government are not at all worried about the CKU line, according to Shibutov. “No, they are not scared. Approximately 80 per cent of the route goes through mountains, and you need a huge amount of bridges and tunnels there. Besides, it is a single-track line and goes into mountains, which means a small amount of wagons per train. The volume of freight that you can transport there is not that large”, Shibutov explains. Reportedly, the volume of freight to be carried along the route by 2050 is 13,5 million tonnes.

Sky-high construction costs

The line through Kyrgyzstan will be a single-track railway of approximately 500 kilometres in length through mountainous terrain. It needs 120 kilometres of tunnels and 26 kilometres of bridges, says Shibutov. At the railway’s halfway point, in Makmal, trains will switch from China’s standard gauge to the 1520 mm broad gauge. The construction costs of the line grow immensely due to these factors.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has an already developed railway network across primarily flat land. “Our trains go across flatlands, here we don’t have such an amount of bridges and no tunnels at all, slopes neither”, Shibutov says. “We can keep our fees lower, while the southern (Kyrgyz) route needs to pay for its construction costs.”

Ten to twelve billion dollars for CKU line

Those construction costs are a point of contention as well, and presented a major obstacle to an agreement on the line. Ultimately, China agreed to finance approximately half of the route, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will each take on about a quarter of the costs. With China’s part amounting to 2,3 billion dollars, the total projected cost of the line is 4,7 billion dollars.

However, Shibutov disputes this number: “But really, considering construction in the mountains, the cost of the line will be in the range of 10 to 12 billion dollars”, he says. Such high costs will inevitably be reflected in the usage fees, which harm the line’s competitiveness. According to the Kyrgyz president, transit fees will generate 200 million dollars annually for the country. It will take a long time for the line to pay itself off.

Reducing dependence on Kazakhstan?

What, then, exactly is the reason behind the CKU line? Kyrgyz political scientist Nargiza Muratalieva, in an interview with platform LogiStan, claimed that the line could help reduce Kyrgyzstan’s dependence on Kazakhstan in logistical questions. The landlocked country could get better and diversified access to the sea, and the border with Kazakhstan is congested, she says.

Marat Shibutov disagrees. According to him, Kyrgyzstan’s dependence on Kazakhstan remains either way. “The dependence of Kyrgyzstan on Kazakhstan consists of exports to Russia and further west through our territory. Going through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and further is a lot less convenient for Kyrgyz transporters due to the many border crossings and customs offices.”

What remains is the benefit for local transportation and perhaps attracting additional goods from China to go towards Europe. Could the CKU line grow those volumes? “Not by a lot”, says Shibutov, “and then only after some years after the line’s completion. I do not think that the line will be very popular on long distances. Rather, it will service Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan exclusively. Even if there is going to be more freight, it will likely not be considered and the volumes will statistically not be large.”