- China’s retail sales grew 3% on-year in November, missing expectations and showing weak demand.
- The property crisis and low consumer confidence are dragging down China’s economic recovery.
- Stimulus measures and trade-in policies boosted appliance and car sales, but overall growth lags.
China has rolled out multiple rounds of stimulus measures to boost its economy this year, but consumers are still unsure about parting with their money.
In November, China’s retail sales — a measure of consumption — grew 3% from a year ago, according to official data released on Monday. That’s lower than a 4.8% expansion in October and a 4.6% rise that analysts polled by Reuters had expected.
The below-forecast retail figures reflect flagging consumer confidence in a month when retailers hold their biggest sale of the year: the Singles’ Day shopping festival.
“This was the big disappointment of the month, as retail sales failed to build upon the momentum and came in well softer than both consensus and our forecasts,” wrote Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, in a note on Monday.
In its data release, China’s statistics bureau described the country’s domestic demand as “insufficient.”
There were bright spots in November, with sales of household appliances growing 22% from a year ago and growth of car sales hitting a nine-month high of 6.6%, as the two categories were boosted by government trade-in programs.
However, overall discretionary spending was slow, with sales of cosmetics tanking 26% from a year ago. Sales of communications applications and gold and jewelry fell 7.7% and 5.9%, respectively.
Even the experiential “eat, drink, and play” sectors have started to fade after a solid outperformance for most of the year, Song wrote. Growth of sales in catering, alcohol and tobacco, and sports and recreation all slowed.
China is mired in an epic property crisis
China is grappling with a years-long property crisis. About 70% of China’s wealth is parked in property, so the real-estate crisis is also damaging the consumer psyche.
China’s leadership pledged after a meeting last week that it will boost consumption as a priority.
“With no convincing signs of a ground-up pick-up in consumption and confidence, Beijing is confronted by the risk of ‘too little, too late’ stimulus,” wrote Vishnu Varathan, the head of macro research in Asia, excluding Japan, for Mizuho Securities.
China’s retail sales data came about a month ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. While on the campaign trail, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods. He has also threatened an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing the country’s role in the fentanyl trade.
China’s benchmark CSI300 was 0.4% lower at midday on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.6% lower.