NFL divisional round overreactions
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the divisional round of the NFL playoffs as the championship game matchups are set.
Sports Seriously
The Kansas City Chiefs are going for a three-peat to cement their place in NFL history and the Buffalo Bills are seeking their first Super Bowl win to cap off a franchise resurgence in recent years. Patrick Mahomes is considered the best quarterback of this era (with the chance to eventually become the best of any era) and Josh Allen might have been the best quarterback in the league this season.
All of that, combined with their shared playoff history, is why the 2025 AFC championship game between the Chiefs and Bills is shaping up to be an event talked about years from now. These two teams have now met in the playoffs four of the past five seasons, including the 2020 AFC title game. During that time, Mahomes and Allen have reached a level of success and stardom that any postseason matchup featuring the two of them is must-see.
The Chiefs disposed of the Houston Texans in the divisional round to set up this showdown at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes hasn’t lost to Buffalo in the postseason, but the Bills beat Kansas City during Week 11 of the regular season. Buffalo upended Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round as Allen played turnover-free football.
There’s a lot to look forward to on Sunday. The spread suggests experts are predicting an AFC championship game that goes down to the wire. Here’s what else to know about the latest playoff matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
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USA TODAY: Chiefs 26, Bills 22
“The Chiefs, who are undefeated at home this year, will get revenge in Kansas City. Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones, a trio bound for the Hall of Fame, will make game-changing plays and lift Kansas City to another Super Bowl. … Mahomes enters the game 3-0 versus Allen and the Bills in the postseason.”
FOX Sports: Chiefs 30, Bills 27
In defeating Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and (the Ravens) last week, Buffalo did a good job shutting down one of the most explosive running offenses in the league. But in the regular season, the Bills struggled against playoff teams, going 2-3 against teams that reached the playoffs. They allowed 108 more yards per game against current playoff teams and an average of 33 points, the fourth most all time by a playoff team. … It’s hard to go against Mahomes in the postseason, based on Kansas City’s past success.”
ESPN: Bills have 54.6% chance to win
According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, the Buffalo Bills have a 54.6% chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2025 AFC championship game.
Sporting News: Bills 28, Chiefs 26
“Kansas City has not committed a turnover in its past eight games, but the running game has been hit or miss with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. Buffalo was a 2.5-point favorite in the regular-season meeting, but that was at home. It’s on Allen to end the Chiefs’ playoff streak, and (the Bills) are due to finally pull out the victory. Allen and Mahomes put on a show, and this will live up to expectations. It is a lot to overcome with Mahomes’ track record. This time, however, Buffalo finally knocks off Kansas City.”
Arizona Republic: Chiefs 31, Bills 28
“Can the Bills get past the Chiefs in the playoffs this time? It’s not going to be easy. Kansas City is a perfect 9-0 at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Bills are 5-4 away from Highmark Stadium this year. Josh Allen and company handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season in Week 11, 30-21, but that game was in Buffalo.”
NFL playoffs 2025 odds, lines: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to defeat the Buffalo Bills in the 2025 AFC championship game, according to BetMGM.
Odds as of Saturday, Jan. 25
- Spread:Â Chiefs (-2)
- Moneylines:Â Chiefs (-130); Bills (+110)
- Over/under:Â 48.5
How to watch Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC championship game
- Date:Â Sunday, Jan. 26
- Time:Â 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV:Â CBS
- Stream: Paramount+, NFL+, Fubo (free trial)
- Where:Â Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Watch the AFC championship game with Fubo
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